to be clear, *my numbers* don't say anything about this. Vegas numbers pointed in this direction, and then I closed the gap myself on fanduel and BOL, and then once all the other lines came out, this probability is now much reduced. So either Vegas lines are based on the opinion of one guy betting a couple grand, or the sharps also agree with me.

Now pricing Bama much less likely to make it, Oregon and Texas more likely, etc.

FSU line dropping like a rock, they're now only -2.5, and more than 35-1 to title WITH juice (meaning their true odds are even worse)

I maintain:

All chalk, it's UGA Michigan Oregon/Washington and FSU

FSU/Michigan upset, it's Texas

Bama upset, it's Texas and the SEC gets left out

two upsets and it's Texas and Bama and UGA gets left out

The only scenario I'm not sure about is if UGA, Michigan, Oregon, Louisville and Oklahoma State all win. Will the 4th spot go to Washington or Ohio State? I think it depends on the Wash score. If they lose close, they probably hang on, if they get blown out, Ohio State slides in.

And if it's Bama, Michigan, Oregon, Louisville and OK State, then it's obviously Bama and UGA

GB: How many points was Travis worth (ballpark est)?

Lines by various ratings systems:

SP+ FSU -13.5
FPI FSU -8.5
Sagarin Predictor -FSU -6.5

Average = FSU -9.5

Actual line = FSU -2.5

I think a reasonable estimate for a Heisman candidate QB compared to an unheralded, inexperienced backup would be 7-10 point difference.

In this particular case, I lean more towards Travis being worth around 10 points due to the specific weaknesses of FSU. Namely, the OL isn't great in pass protection and Rodemaker is someone who slowly goes through reads and has an insanely high sack rate. Travis could use his legs to buy time, which is very valuable when your QB pocket is often breaking down.

I think you could even argue he's worth a couple points more than 10 to FSU.

Well I don’t see how having to play and win a last game is some unique ridiculous burden UM is having to face. But I have bad news for you; next year you’ll get an additional gotcha game on top of that.

FSU was in the first ever and last ever BCS title games.
They were in the first ever 4-team playoff.

It's only right that they're in the last ever 4-team playoff this year and also next year's 12-teamer, as is tradition.

At least for Bama, that looks like a straight sacks/attempts number (39/279) which is strange to call “sacks per dropback” since it isn’t and particularly given Milroe often has a result on dropbacks which is neither an attempt nor a sack (like a positive run or a penalty for throwing a pass beyond the line of scrimmage).

I can’t speak to the Rodenmacher numbers except it’s the same guy saying them.

Judging from Twitter there are a ton of players entering the portal today. Going to be quite the spicy offseason.

GA wins
MI wins
TX loses
FSU loses

GA, MI, OR/WA, OSU

gonna be hilarious

Yeah I don’t what these guys are talking about. Sometimes it provides opportunity, sometimes you’d rather skip, and not having it altogether can bite conference in butt

Back in 2014 the Big12 told the CFP to choose between TCU and Baylor but Condoleeza Rice said “thanks but no thanks, I like what I see in Ohio State”

it's "WITH THAT BEING SAID" season

I don't mind the portal when it brings my favorite team good players, it's the part where the good players go elsewhere is what I keep getting hung up on.

Deion right now:

Even if it's only 7 points, that should be enough to remove them from consideration unless bro magically turns into Cardale RAIDmaker by Saturday and/or one of {Michigan, Texas} gets bounced. Texas losing is the only one that doesn't have a lim x -> infinity denominator chance of happening

Line move updates:

The Oregon/Wash line has climbed from 75% to 77%. UGA from 65% to 66%, Texas up from 82% to 85% and FSU down to 55%


Oregon is 77% to win the game but you can get 74% to playoff


If I am right about Texas, they should be about 56% to make it (Win + one of UGA/Mich/FSU loses), but the vig free line is 32% and the vig line is 39%

If you say "ok BOTH the pac and SEC winners are guaranteed to be in" then Texas should be at 40.4%, which means that Vegas thinks there is a slight chance that UGA loses, Texas wins and UGA stays in over UT.

This is supported by the fact that UGA's "no" line is all the way down to 21% even though they're 34% to lose to Bama


It doesn't seem to be coming at the expense of FSU, who is basically priced to be win and in. FSU's best lines in the game are -131/+118 and their playoff lines are -140/+120

He proclaimed that he was bringing Louis this year, but much of it looked like American Tourister. Perhaps he can't really tell the difference???

I don’t think they will or should eliminate an undefeated ACC champion because of an injury, especially since they would have just won two of their toughest games away and neutral with the backup. Despite whatever word vomit about “they have some guys up front” the committee spouts out for the first couple of weeks, in the final selection they’ve never eyetested **** until “sort by losses” runs into a tie. See last year’s sacrificial puppy TCU instead of Alabama who obviously would have been a huge favorite over them—and they weren’t even conference champs.

Mind you I’d greatly prefer competitive semifinals, but that just means we need a Louisville win.

fsu was only the 3 seed i think that one year behind two one loss teams

i do think if it ends up being georgia michigan oregon fsu there's a decent shot fsu is the 4 seed

I would say that is highly likely. And also if Washington beats Oregon.

If Michigan wins, I'd bet it will be M vs PAC in the Rose Bowl. SEC vs ACC or B12 in Atlanta.

Iowa’s team total for the first half and the second half is ZERO POINT FIVE POINTS

Lolololol Jesus Christ

Edit: ah I see it was already posted. Just spectacular

I think overwhelmingly likely FSU is the 4 in that scenario.

They should absolutely be eliminated based on the injury. They might only be the 20th to 25th best team by power aorn. What's the spread in a 1 UGA / 4 FSU semifinal? In the completely idiotic system of a four team invitational tournament, you can't blow one of the three games on 65-7 snoozer unless it's unavoidable.

One of the national writers tweeted lines after the latest rankings, had UGA -14 vs FSU, Michigan -8 vs Washington.

Given that Oregon was -9.5 vs Washington last time I checked, there is a very real chance that they're favored over anyone that's not UGA, even as the 3 or 4 seed.

oregon's only real weakness right now is the kicker
how much could that matter?