of all the sports football would seem to be the one to most benefit in having a statistician in the coaches box to help make decisions. I know most coaches wouldn't want to think that way, but in regard to winning it would be a pretty good move.

Ive been saying this constantly during games for the past couple of years. How is there not a guy on every staff whos job is in game clock management at least? I guess it has to be these coaches are just to egotistical to let someone give them advice like that?

welcome to 2p2 roughly ten years ago

some senior IE class group project should be to help the falcons out with this

I'll do it for the Falcons for free

Last week on the Thursday night broadcast, I heard the Broncos hired one.

Broncos have game management guy in the booth but it's up to Kubiak to listen to him. Based off Kubiaks extremely terrible FG to go up 6 I'd say he is getting ignored.

Until teams stop calling fullback dives on 2nd and 1 this will never change

Another beauty from yesterday. 4th & 1 from the 17. 1:51 remaining. Indianapolis has 0 timeouts. Broncos up 3. FIELD GOAL. Never ends

It is truly the gift that keeps on giving.

Good lord. Kneeling is probably better

Phil Simms loved it. Gotta get POTB, make em go the length of the field.

Thing is, if the Broncos get the first down Nantz/Simms/media laugh and say "well, I guess Kubiak was right" and say some cliche bull**** about "trusting his team" or "going with his gut" but no one would actually change or even consider changing the way they think. Otoh, if the Colts stop them and come back to win the game, it would be a non-stop ****storm about how they HAVE to take the points.

Kicking the fg is an abomination, I'm not defending it, but I can at least see the argument for job preservation. Although you'd think the guy who just came in and won a super bowl would be pretty far from the hot seat.

Most likely game management guy is some dude's cousin or like a brad childress special projects type given they're just starting to have any clue what this is anyway. You're also presuming that guy knows which he easily may not, there's no qualifications for that job.

Like say a 2p2er got this job, are we gonna be constantly barking in some HC's ear all game to go for it (or telling mccarthy to pass 100% of the time)? My guess is optimal value is in the most obv/important spots you try to get one in there and stfu the rest of the time. Bothering the HC too much and you get fired for sure. Personally I'd keep him off the line and just have a buzzer that gives an electric shock whenever he should go for it and just press that button.

There's also a lot of people on that line it's got to be damned annoying all the time during games.

Also it's denver's defense, FG is probably most correct (I mean least wrong) with them than any other team. It's tough to get someone to agree with you when their bad decision is rarely gonna backfire on them anyway.

2p2'ers sometimes forget that we're all human beings. I sure as hell wouldn't want to deal with stupid media bullcrap for an entire week about my "dumb" decision myself. There's a politics component to sports (I'd argue even more than most workplaces) that we keep ignoring, it's dumb but you got to play that game or else. (also say your owner is 80+, gl explaining how your decision to go for it is "correct", seriously you have no chance)

they still haven't gotten the 4th and short end of game one yet though, dal missed it now denver. Probably never will, TRUST YOUR DEFENSE and all that. I mean have they ever done that outside of like maybe rich kotite? (oh and BB who failed despite it being the most obvious one to go for it ever in that indy game) and he still got eviscerated in the media for it.

Think that denver one would've flown under the radar nationally though and maybe just been a few min footnote; there were 5 games going on or so at the time. SNF/MNF it's THE talking point for at least the rest of the week if it backfires. It's annoying but handling the media is one of the many job responsibilities a HC has to be good at.

Nebraska went for it agains Oregon, 4th and 9 from their own 48, down 3, with 3:14 left in the game.

Clearly correct but made me happy. When asked after Mike Riley said "I thought if we punted the ball away we'd never get it back." Perfection.

here's how I could see a game manager / statistician /2p2er working out

obvs a coach is not going to listen to him in game off the bat. it's going to be a long cycle sale here. what you do is have the guy observe games, and then meet with the coach on Monday or Tuesday for an hour to review the situations where he would have gone another way. Explain the concept and let the coach absorb it and either argue against it while he isn't in a in-the-game moment with emotion and ego running. There's still obviously going to be some of that anyway. Just keep doing that until the coach begins to think outside the box on his own (unlikely) or he actually is willing to take the smart guys advice more in game.

It's still better than just plugging along like a moron, which is what most NFL teams do.

On that Arizona Cardinals show they showed a clip where Arians goes over situations from other games around the league with his team, and talks about how things went wrong, mostly strategically. That was pretty cool.

I would love to be a fly on the wall for a meeting where the owner/GM tells the head coach that he has to meet with a statistician for an hour the day after a game to review game situations

well yeah, but way better chance of him at least listening to that for an hour than listening to anyone during a game on the fly

I think there's a definite spot for a stats guy to get involved with NFL teams - implementing it is the challenge

here is how you implement it.

The owner hires a consulting firm to find a clock management/4th down/2pt conversion guy and said firm hires a guy to work with the team. That guy should have a background in math and logic and a passion for football, but doesnt need any coaching or playing experience.

Then the owner tells the coach that this guy's job is to use their TOs, make all 4th down decisions, and decide when to go for 2. Because that is now this guy's job and not the coach's the coach cannot override him. The owner should then make it clear that if the coach oversteps his bounds he will be fired.

If the stats guy make a clear error he gets fired right away (not talking the marginal 4th down calls like 4th and 4 from the 35 in the first quarter where FG or go for it are both defensible).

Now your problem is solved.

well it's not ALL numbers, is it? there's other variables. I don't think it could be 100% the stats guy's call or 100% the coaches (which is what it is now on all teams)

4th down is >90% numbers

endgame clock management is 100% numbers

2 point conversions are 100% numbers

The problem is that is most people are results oriented.

So, you go for it on 4th down twice in the first game and you don't make it.

Coach tells the owner that he would have never gone for it because some bs football reasons.

Stat guy gets fired and they don't hire a new one.

The weak link in all of this is that you need an owner who has a brain and understands analytics. Good luck.

you don't think an owner like Art Blank understands analytics?

the only way it would work if the stats guy is literally the coaches son

there are definitely owners smart enough to understand analytics. And once a couple teams start experiencing success from this others will start moving fast.