I think people here are underestimating how "odd" some correct EV decisions sound.

This thread is a bit of an echo chamber, with people constantly bitching about incorrect 4th down calls and 2 point calls.

On other boards, when people complain why, for example, a particular call was wrong because they should have gone for 2, or gone for it on 4th, people overwhelmingly don't understand it. Inevitably, when called on it with the correct EV analysis, someone will bring up "momentum." (E.g., if the Broncos went for it on 4th and failed to convert, the Colts would have had momentum on their side.)

let the analytics guy answer questions in the presser then and publish his stuff via social media. Who cares if it sounds odd or if stupid people don't understand it. Presumably these stupid people still want to win so they'll see the results over their lifetime as a fan.

Why give away +EV information for free? If you truly embrace this the correct way to explain yourself in the media is to make it seem like you're just an idiot aggro coach.

don't think explaining yourself in the media is giving it away for free. Would be tough to quanitfy value, but its almost assuredly a net positive to explain it when it doesn't work.

yikes

I think a ton of bad decisions are made on 3rd and long also. You got 3rd and 15 at midfield You see so many screens, draws and other passes way short of the first down marker. How often do these plays actually pick up the first down? 1 in 15 maybe? Why would you not just run a deep fly or even a hail mary for that matter. Seems to be the + EV call, especially with flag happy refs. An int in this situation is the same as a punt, and the reward is a TD if it succeeds. If a team starts doing this alot on 3rd and long situations then it will open up the field and maybe those 7-8 yard passes will have a much better chance of picking up the 1st down.

I mean 13 year olds playing Madden can figure this out but not NFL coaches/coordinators.

Similarly, nothing irks me more than the 2nd and 20 draw to set up one of the 3 and 15s you're talking about lol.

Aren't football coaches control freaks by nature? I can't see some HC allowing a pencil neck that's never played to influence the game because the math says he's correct.

fire him and find one who will

That's why I said they will need to sit down and chat often outside of a game environment. It's almost like tutoring. At some point the HC is going to either buy in & adapt or kick the geek out.

Not too hard to make it clear to coaches that unless they are literally Bill Belichick they do not get to make their own decisions on these things because they're too dumb to know what's best. Who cares about being a control freak. I mean these are guys who let people call their offensive and defensive PLAYS but we won't be able to find one who will let someone call timeouts or tell him if he should go for it on 4th down?

Not sure where but I read a story about some game theory need actually having a meeting with an NFL coach (think it was Andy Reid but not positive) to talk to him about some of the 4th down decision/ clock management equity stuff and the coach walked out after like 5 minutes. You'd need someone outside of the old boys club to implement this

Not letting coaches control TO's is way too far. Seems stupid from a game logistics standpoint.

A problem with 4th downs even, is the guy has to say it immediately or on 3rd down (if we fail go for it on 4th) so the coaches are ready. I'd rather try to reduce chaos elements than keep adding more.

re: analytics guy convo

Doug Pederson referenced his "analytics team" in his presser today. Doesn't sound like he has a guy in his ear, but rather that they review certain scenarios ahead of time. Talks about it around 2:30

I was discussing this during the Week 1 Giants/Cowboys game. I will say that I am a Giants fan, but Dallas had a 3rd and 15-ish with about 4:30 to play and ran a screen that had very little chance of converting. Understandably, their game plan with Dak was very conservative most of the game, but I was very confused why they did not try to convert in this spot.

Early in the game, I guess I can understand this type of playcall, but are you that scared about throwing a pick late? Obviously was happy as a Giants fan, but seemed like a give up, I would rather just chuck to Dez in double coverage and hope he makes a play/draws a flag.

I'm guessing either 1) most teams don't have this type of analytics ear of the coach or 2) Pederson is way more open minded to implement things

because I can't recall a team going for 4th - 2 in a 0-0 game early from the 28 unless it was a FAKE FG

I don't mind it if they then go for it on fourth, but if they're going to punt anyway it's stupid, if anything it just makes it a bit more likely they overcook it for a touchback

I wonder if it's possible to query PFR to find someone getting about five yards on third and long, then taking an intentional delay to give the punter more room

no overnight bumps for b'ob eh

run pass balance status: knife-edge. you just never know what hes gonna call

points scored 0 but you never know whats coming and that makes the texans unpredictable

so on fourth and 4 last night

the Texans called the super bowl play, yes that one, instead of running the ball one butler INT'd, seriously, they called that one, I wish I could make this up it's so dumb, with the same predetermined throw at the same cornerback.

Shockingly, It did not work. Just fire them all already.

I mean it doesn't seem that bad. It doesn't seem bad at all actually. Should you never run a slant against the Pats? You should always run in that spot? Seems dubious.

Back to back 4th down going for it in Penn State @ Michigan in the first quarter. Michigan 4th and goal from the 1 for a TD (7-0) and then Penn State from the Michigan 42, 4th and 5 which resulted in a turnover on downs.

Both seems appropriate. Also Joe knew.

good lord James Franklin

Penn State down 28-0 early third quarter, 4th and goal from the 2, send out the kicking team

but be sure to do it slowly enough that you have to call the time out to avoid the delay of game penalty to make it a 25 yard FG instead of a 20 yard FG, because your kicker has never missed a field goal in his life but why take a chance right?

It's 28-0 Michigan over Penn State

I want to get the series of plays too.... you can't forget that

1st and Goal at MICH 7

(11:57 - 3rd) Saquon Barkley run for 5 yds to the Mich 2

2nd and Goal at MICH 2
(11:41 - 3rd) Trace McSorley pass incomplete to Saquon Barkley

3rd and Goal at MICH 2
(11:36 - 3rd) Trace McSorley pass incomplete to Chris Godwin

(11:36 - 3rd) Timeout PENN ST, clock 11:36

4th and Goal at MICH 2
(11:31 - 3rd) Tyler Davis 21 yd FG GOOD

This isn't even about recency bias or anything like that.... this is the worst coaching decision-tree I've ever seen.

Sigh

this is dumbest thing i've ever heard of in my life