Rogers has had multiple concussions and a broken collarbone. Even if passing each down were strictly a dominant strategy it would still seem wise to actually have him available for the post season.

FYP, but came to post exactly this. How this man continues to get head coaching jobs is simply amazing. Yea Jeff, you keep telling people that 8-8 is unacceptable

Honestly, i think hes just clicking buttons.

Steelers had also hit em for the TD on 4th and 1. May have been a "reprisal" element. I'm glad to see Tomlin isn't letting up on the 4th down agro this year.

But this is the whole thing, you're just blindly assuming that establishing is always dumb, when in short yardage/goal line/two point attempts it's not necessarily the case. Maybe in the 2016 scoring environment with Aaron Rodgers it's always correct to throw the ball on two point attempts/down near the goal line, but treating is as an absurd thing to even think about is super dumb.

http://archive.advancedfootballanaly...r-2-point.html

Counterpoint: Eddie Lacy

Given that league wide running has a higher success rate than passing and the league calls runs/passes in that spot at about a 20/80 split, 20% seems like a pretty reasonable starting point for GB to run at. The league as a whole should probably run more than 20%, but since GB has an unusually good passing game so they should probably run a little less than everyone else. So yeah 20% seems like a pretty reasonable guess at what the optimal run frequency is.

I mean Bill Belicheck in the same 2003-present span has passed 15 times and run 5. Passing game strengths of GB and Pats are similar. So unless you're comfortable saying lol BB, running, what are you doing bro and hey GOOD JOB Fat Mike, UR optimal imo, then yeah running sometimes seems pretty good. I mean come on. Fat Mike is doing a thing. It's probably wrong.

bardy takes like 5 mins to run 2 meters tho

i bet most teams with mobile QBs call pass plays 100% or close to 100%. looked up cam and they've passed 6/6, skins passed 5/5 with bob grif III, kaep 3/3, jaemis 4/4 (jaash 18/18 before him). only anomaly is the seahawks running it twice in 9 attempts with wilson under centre but marshawn was a different proposition to most RBs.

rodgers isnt as runningbackesque as some of those guys but he's running it in no probs if you let him. if he was as slow as bardy it would be a different matter

Pats go to 2pt play for awhile was the direct snap to Faulk, Brady fakes snap going over his head. Worked in the Carolina SB I remember.

I'm a Packer fan, and I'd suggest that any time you find yourself arguing in favor of Mike's play calling that you stop and reconsider things.

It can't be right to pass 100% of the time in that position, especially when there's enough data points to show that you're not having exceptional success with your strategy.

OTOH, the play calling is better than his time-out management, so I guess that's a positive.

MM MD

how many fat eddie lacy data points do we need to digest before we can reasonably suspect that that putting the ball in his hands on 4th & short/2 pt conversion attempts aka the highest leverage situations during the game - when we have literally god at QB - is bad

Designed QB run with Rodgers? That's even dumber, let's have a 260 pound linebacker crush our elite QB on the goal line running an empty backfield draw. WHAT COULD POSSIBLY GO WRONG

no not designed, but if 7 blokes drop back in coverage cos omg they know the pass is coming then he can stroll in for 2 all day erry day because unlike bardy hes not molasses

That's not the only way to defend against the pass.

show me where i said it was

I find it hard to believe that changing the run/pass mix would have much effect in either direction on the packers' success rate. Success rate (actual or theoretical) on runs and passes is tight enough that teams have to defend against the possibility of both, even if a team does not, as a matter of fact, balance its range. Also, if Aaron Rodgers steps to the line and sees some absurd dime package on 4th and goal from the 2 yard line, he obviously can change the play at the line of scrimmage and pipe it.

how long into 2016-17 nfl season will dan quinn hold this thread title?

o/u week 4.5 imo

Also, without reviewing how teams are choosing to defend the Packers in these situations, it's impossible to say whether the Packers play calling is optimal. If passing is the optimal strategy in a vacuum for the Packers, and if teams are doing little to defend the pass at the expense of defending the run, then passing every time could be optimal.

Was going to mention this.

In reality, offences should be looking at exploitative play rather than arbitrarily deciding to either pass or run ahead of time. The Crabtree fade was a reasonable example of that, getting him one on one gave that play a much better chance of succeeding than the average fade route. Same as last years season opener when a couple fades went to Gronk, since he was one out vs a 5th string linebacker in the corner.

That's true. I didn't look up the actual numbers for running vs pass. I was more interested in the idea that even if running is worse it's still a good idea to mix it in as a way of balancing your range. I think that's sometimes true and sometimes not and relies on a lot of assumptions. If it's the case that running is often just better then it's an entirely different discussion.

i reckon spamming the 'give ball to the most effective offensive player in the history of the NFL at a time when the rules are the most QB/passing-friendly they've been in the history of the NFL' button is exploitative in a general sense without going into detail

i'd let god worry about identifying the most exploitative matchup/audible in any particular situation, its one of the many things he's A+ at

Right. Calling a pass every time and then leaving it to Rodgers to depart from that plan at the line of scrimmage if he thinks it is advisable can't be too bad of a strategy.

Maybe I don't want some rookie making that decision unless it is obvious, but surely we can except Rodgers to make a good decision.

This run/pass discussion is complete AIDS. Nobody's hit on it yet. Passing 100% of the time is completely dumb. You can also call two plays at once (ie one pass one run QB picks which one at the line) or QB audibles based on defensive formation he's staring at, whatever.

Basically if you pass 100% of the time, DL doesn't have to worry about gap integrity (especially if the DL is 2 gap instead of 1 gap) so they can straight rush, those blokes don't have to worry about looking at the RB unless it's their responsibility, etc. All of that means less timing/space and all that stuff that makes a pass less likely to succeed than what we think it would. You could also easily unbalance the line if you know they're throwing.

Godgers has already lost a step, he's not as mobile as people think and everything is squeezed on the GL, so beating a defender to a spot isn't as easy as you think it is also you're adding plays that get your QB hit. Individually that's all minor, but it adds up in %'s of effectiveness.

anyway back to LOL coaching, bowles of the Jets challenges a 3 yard pass on 3rd and long.

Also all the shovel passes especially third and long in the red zone. Just dumb.

sorry that was REX with the LOL challenge.

The Jets are still doing the stupid shovel passes.

Ok carry on.

Hahahhahahahagaggagagaga rex