Quote:
Originally Posted by conlaw
The fact is over 50% of black men between 17-35 are under criminal court supervision(either parole/probation etc)
(edit: realized I wasn't looking at 17-35 age range. I strongly suspect this number is false though, and at the very least is citation needed)
Quote:
Originally Posted by conlaw
black men are far more likely to commit violent crimes than white men when one controls for wealth and education.
This is also false. In general, it is well established that crime rates are highly correlated with socio-economic measures like concentration of poverty. For example, see the FBI's National Crime Victimization Survey (
NCVS) report on
Household poverty and violent victimization.
Or this:
I can't find an easily accessible source for this, but there's a fairly obvious correlation between the victims of crimes and the offenders, and that is neighborhood. The kinds of crime you are discussing take place within neighborhoods, and victims and offenders tend to occupy similar socio-economic categories. This is already evident in the way people talk about "black-on-black" crime. The victims of those crimes tend to be black precisely because of neighborhood segregation. So, already, the NCVS data suggests that you are wrong:
Beyond that, some more specific research exists. This one is well known:
Quote:
To explore differences in crime between similarly disadvantaged black and white communities, we calculated predicted property and violent crime rates for white and black tracts with low, high, and extreme levels of disadvantage from the interaction models presented in Table 3. The results are shown in Figure 2. The first half of this figure presents the predicted property crime rates and the second half those for violence....
Comparing similarly disadvantaged white and black tracts indicates that property crime rates tend to be somewhat lower in black than white neighborhoods. However, this racial difference is significant only in the context of communities that have an extremely low number of professionals. The second half of Figure 2 shows that, in contrast, black neighborhoods
have somewhat higher violent crime rates than white tracts. However, it is
important to note that in most cases the differences are not statistically significant. Out of 15 black-white comparisons, only four are substantial enough to reach significance.
Extremely Disadvantaged Neighborhoods and Urban Crime, 1996
There are other studies that examine the relationship between race, poverty, and crime, and those relationships are complex. But your assertion that blacks are far more likely to commit violent crimes after controlling for socio-economic factors is unsupported by any available evidence.
Quote:
Originally Posted by conlaw
The facts do not support the narrative that black men are killed disproportionately by police. The opposite is the case.
Partly, you are asking the wrong questions. The complaint isn't just about comparing police shooting rates to population numbers or even crime rates, it's about whether shootings are justified or not, and whether or not black people are more likely to be shot for unjustifiable reasons. There is
research that suggests the answer is yes, although there is also a great lack of good data on the question of police shootings. You can find an analysis of two studies on police shootings, including the above which finds evidence of racial bias, and a second which does not,
here. But also, it's really not just about police shootings, but evidence of other problems
in the broader criminal justice system.
Quote:
Originally Posted by conlaw
The problem is cultural.
The problems are more than cultural. I'll refer you again to
this thread which discusses the cultural argument at some length.
Quote:
Originally Posted by conlaw
If young black men stopped committing violent crime at a rate far larger than their share of the population than this "problem" largely goes away.
One of the main reasons for discussing the socio-economic factors underlying racial disparities in crime is precisely because it makes sense that the best way to eliminate the disparities in crime is to reduce the disparities in wealth, income, education, and also reducing segregation and concentration of poverty in black communities. Which is my main argument in the PU thread I keep linking.