Quote:
Originally Posted by spidercrab
I don't think it's been posted in this thread, but Roland Fryer (super famous Harvard economist) just came out with a study on racial differences in the use of police force:
http://www.nber.org/papers/w22399
I'm not entirely competent to critique the work, but I think there are at least two potential points of interest
1) The evaluation of racial bias in officer-involved shootings is limited to data from the Houston PD (p. 21), and it also only looks at a subset of police interactions, specifically ones where lethal force is at least facially reasonable:
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We sample case IDs from five arrest categories which are more likely to contain incidence in which lethal force was justified: attempted capital murder of a public safety officer, aggravated assault on a public safety officer, resisting arrest, evading arrest, and interfering in arrest.20 This process narrowed the set of relevant arrests to 16,000 total, between 2000 and 2015. We randomly sampled five percent of these arrest records and manually coded 290 variables per arrest record. This process took between 30 and 45 minutes per record to manually keypunch and includes variables related to specific locations for calls, incidents, and arrests, suspect behavior, suspect mental health, suspect injuries, officer use of force, and officer injuries resulting from the encounter.
These data are merged with data on officer demographics and suspect’s previous arrest history to produce a comprehensive incident-level dataset on interactions between police and civilians in which lethal force may have been justified (p. 15)
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We now focus on racial differences in officer-involved shootings. We begin with specifications most comparable to those used to estimate racial differences in non-lethal force, using both data from officer-involved shootings in Houston and data we coded from Houston arrest records that contains interactions with police that might have resulted in the use of lethal force. (p. 21)
One possibility is simply that in Houston there is no racial disparity. But, also I wonder whether limiting the selection of cases obscures an effect that would be noticeable if they were evaluating across all cases where officer involved shootings occur. There's no way to know of course, but at least
one other study which uses an
alternate data set on police shootings across the country found a racial bias at least in the shootings of unarmed people at least.
(2) I think it could be argued that this study is attempting to isolate a particularly narrow kind of racial bias in policing, but it's not the only possible issue. To quote the author:
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To be clear, the empirical thought experiment here is that a police officer arrives at a scene and decides whether or not to use lethal force. Our estimates suggest that this decision is not correlated with the race of the suspect. This does not, however, rule out the possibility that there are important racial differences in whether or not these police-civilian interactions occur at all. (p. 23)
In the PU Trump thread,
Toothsayer suggested the argument that there was no racial bias in police shootings because the apparent bias relative to population ignores racial disparities in crime rates. In other words, the argument is Black people get shot more, but that's because they also are involved in more of these situations, i.e they commit more crimes. I don't think toothsayer linked this study, but some of his posts seem to be referring to it. In any case, I think the question is essentially the same. Fryer finds no evidence of bias towards shooting Blacks or Hispanics relative to the number of Black and Hispanic suspects in his data set. But his data set is 58% Black suspects, 30% Hispanic, and 12% non-Black/non-Hispanic (Table 1D). In other words, it is tremendously skewed compared to total population of the U.S. This is important in light of the question about possible racial differences in how these interactions occur.
The authors of the PLOS one study claim to find a racial disparity even controlling for crime rates, which I read as an attempt to eliminate the "Black people get shot more because they commit more crime" argument, but I don't fully understand how they did so or how it compares to Fryer's method.
In any case, I think a holistic approach is warranted, especially in consideration of the racial disparities Fryer confirms in the use of non-lethal force from a much larger dataset. The argument about systemic racism in the criminal justice system doesn't hinge on the individual racial bias of police officers, which at least in the subset of data from Houston does not appear. There have been
other experiments on the role of individual implicit bias that likewise challenge an explanation that depends too heavily on individual racism.
But, the fact that Black people are so overwhelmingly likely to have these encounters with police in the first place represents its own social problem, and is in itself a consequence of various forms of racism which can be demonstrated in different ways, from the DOJ
complaint against the Ferguson PD, to the kinds of non-lethal discrimination found by Fryer, to the legacy of racist policy evident in
poverty statistics. Basically, I think it's wrong for people to read Fryer and conclude that BLM is misguided, but it is also useful for people to realize that the problem is bigger than just individually racist cops, even though these certainly exist also.