Democratic Race Going Forward (PA in 1 week on 4/22, IN and NC in 3 weeks on 5/6) - Page 41 - Politics and Economics

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Democratic Race Going Forward (PA in 1 week on 4/22, IN and NC in 3 weeks on 5/6)

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05-06-2008 , 06:21 PM

#1001

Wynton

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This is much more fun than using real numbers.

05-06-2008 , 06:22 PM

#1002

DVaut1

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Quote:

Originally Posted by MrWookie

WTF? 22 points in NC? Color me skeptical.

This is the jubilant hour, enjoy it:

Quote:

Sometime after 6 p.m. Drudge posts raw numbers from exit polls that - if past is prologue - show Obama doing an average of seven percentage points better than he actually does.

Obama supporters then get prematurely jubilant and after polls close (tonight at 7 p.m. ET in Indiana and 7:30 p.m. ET in North Carolina) the real results start to come in and reveal Clinton then doing “better than expected” (at least better than the new expectations promoted during the day).

05-06-2008 , 06:28 PM

#1003

DVaut1

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Jubilant/expectation setting hour continues:

Quote:

The early exit polls that are now being broadcast on Fox News say that the results are mixed as we await the complete Indiana Primary Results. The network says that the rural vote in Indiana is lower than the Clinton campaign would like.

05-06-2008 , 06:29 PM

#1004

Wynton

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Quote:

Originally Posted by DVaut1

This is the jubilant hour, enjoy it:

Hey, I asked you about this earlier and you said we had already passed the Drudge-overestimate Obama support time.

I demand to know: what phase are we in right now?!?

05-06-2008 , 06:29 PM

#1005

Vecernicek

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Apr 2007 Posts: 3,781

I just came home from drinking and watching the Blind Boys of Alabama, and I have to say, this thread is already the best entertainment of the night (and the Blind Boys were damn good).

This is going all the way to the convention.

Drink, wookie.

05-06-2008 , 06:32 PM

#1006

DVaut1

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Wynton

Hey, I asked you about this earlier and you said we had already passed the Drudge-overestimate Obama support time.

I demand to know: what phase are we in right now?!?

We are in the post-Drudge overestimate Obama support time, and into the "exit polls overestimate Obama support" time. Still, if this:

Quote:

Indiana

Obama: 50.5%
Clinton: 49.5%

North Carolina

Obama: 60%
Clinton: 38%

...turns into Obama 57%-Clinton 43% in NC and Clinton 53%-Obama 47% in IN, then standard imo, and a good night for Obama since they chopped up the night and 200 less delegates are up for grabs.

05-06-2008 , 06:32 PM

#1007

Wynton

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1% of Indiana vote in: Clinton up 61/39.

We're still doomed!

05-06-2008 , 06:35 PM

#1008

Wynton

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Quote:

Originally Posted by DVaut1

We are in the post-Drudge overestimate Obama support time, and into the "exit polls overestimate Obama support" time.

And when does this period officially end?

I really should have purchased a program.

05-06-2008 , 06:38 PM

#1009

DVaut1

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Wynton

And when does this period officially end?

When the results come in ldo.

05-06-2008 , 06:39 PM

#1010

yad

old hand

Join Date: Aug 2005 Posts: 1,865

Quote:

The day begins with the Clinton campaign “leaking” something to the Drudge Report to set expectations for the day. That then gets repeated on political blogs and cable news, where Clinton surrogate Terry McAuliffe elaborates. Today’s “expectation”: That the Clinton campaign expects a “15 point” defeat in North Carolina. Clinton’s yapping puppies in the news media repeat the manufactured expectation all day long, in which the bar is supposedly now that if Clinton comes within 15 points in that state that she has somehow “won” with a 14 point (or 6 point) defeat.

Check. (Dead on with the leaked 15-point expectation, in fact).

Quote:

Around 4 p.m. rumors of exit polls begin circulating on the Internet. Around 5:30 p.m. AP and other news organizations leak minor data from the exit polls that explains almost nothing of value. Sometime after 6 p.m. Drudge posts raw numbers from exit polls that - if past is prologue - show Obama doing an average of seven percentage points better than he actually does.

Check. Though obviously the 7% is yet to be determined.

Quote:

Obama supporters then get prematurely jubilant...

Check.

Quote:

...and after polls close (tonight at 7 p.m. ET in Indiana and 7:30 p.m. ET in North Carolina) the real results start to come in and reveal Clinton then doing “better than expected” (at least better than the new expectations promoted during the day).

Yet to come.

Quote:

The media talking heads then ask aloud why Obama can’t “close the deal” (in Clinton’s own words) and what is numerically a defeat for Clinton (because the results, even in her recent wins, bring her objectively farther from the nomination in the context of the smaller number of delegates then available) gets spun as a Clinton victory.

Eagerly awaiting this part.

05-06-2008 , 06:42 PM

#1011

DVaut1

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Quote:

Originally Posted by yad

Check. (Dead on with the leaked 15-point expectation, in fact).

In fairness, that blogger (Al Giordano) was able to be dead on with the 15-point expectation the Clinton campaign set because he wrote the post after the Clinton campaign leaked it to Drudge.

05-06-2008 , 06:53 PM

#1012

DVaut1

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Matthews and Olbermann openly jeering Clinton surrogates, then they get Obama surrogates on like Daschle, and all three join together in mocking Clinton. At least they're biases aren't veiled at all.

05-06-2008 , 06:55 PM

#1013

cpitt398

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Apr 2005 Posts: 4,113

Quote:

Originally Posted by DVaut1

Matthews and Olbermann openly jeering Clinton surrogates, then they get Obama surrogates on like Daschle, and all three join together in mocking Clinton. At least they're biases aren't veiled at all.

sweet im gonna switch channels. do they have cool graphics like cnn?

05-06-2008 , 06:58 PM

#1014

DVaut1

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Quote:

Originally Posted by cpitt398

sweet im gonna switch channels. do they have cool graphics like cnn?

No. Definitely not. Those touch screen maps John King pwns are apparently isolated to CNN.

05-06-2008 , 06:59 PM

#1015

JaredL

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Quote:

Originally Posted by cpitt398

sweet im gonna switch channels. do they have a cool touch screen where the guy keeps saying "look if we give this state to Hillary 60/40 you can see that each candidates delegates bar moves" like cnn?

05-06-2008 , 07:02 PM

#1016

HorridSludgyBits

adept

Join Date: Feb 2007 Posts: 829

You know that guy's playing with that screen long after everyone goes home.

05-06-2008 , 07:02 PM

#1017

MrWookie

Don't Call Me Meredith

Join Date: Feb 2005 Posts: 94,159

We missed another drinking game statement: "...make her case to the superdelegates."

05-06-2008 , 07:04 PM

#1018

gobbomom

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you guys are using CNN for the drinking game? that sucks.

05-06-2008 , 07:05 PM

#1019

MrWookie

Don't Call Me Meredith

Join Date: Feb 2005 Posts: 94,159

CNN's exit poll is a 52-48 win for Clinton in IN

05-06-2008 , 07:08 PM

#1020

MrWookie

Don't Call Me Meredith

Join Date: Feb 2005 Posts: 94,159

OK, Paul Begala is spitting out the drinking points on CNN.

05-06-2008 , 07:08 PM

#1021

istewart

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Kerry is the most depressing person ever, lol. I hate listening to him or looking at him.

05-06-2008 , 07:11 PM

#1022

gobbomom

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Quote:

Originally Posted by istewart

Kerry is the most depressing person ever, lol. I hate listening to him or looking at him.

god, I know. I wonder if it's even possible for him to not look/sound like a snooty New Englander.

05-06-2008 , 07:11 PM

#1023

DVaut1

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Donna Brazille said she's going to squeeze Lou Dobbs like an orange and make orange juice...or something

The most trusted name in news imo.

05-06-2008 , 07:14 PM

#1024

istewart

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I'm waiting for Lou Dobbs to say something horribly inappropriate about Mexican borderjumpers. Seems like the right time.

05-06-2008 , 07:17 PM

#1025

DVaut1

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Among people that voted for Hillary Clinton, 7% said they would NOT be satisfied if Clinton wins the nomination.

Operation chaos, or just some bizarre voters, take your pick.

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