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Democratic Race Going Forward (PA in 1 week on 4/22, IN and NC in 3 weeks on 5/6) Democratic Race Going Forward (PA in 1 week on 4/22, IN and NC in 3 weeks on 5/6)

05-06-2008 , 12:31 AM
Let us hope this is PA Zogby and not CA Zogby



The last polls from Zogby show:
http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1499

NC: Obama leads 51-37
IN: Obama leads 45-43 (the 5/5 half was 47-41 Obama)

On the plus side, only one of the last polls in Indiana showed movement to Clinton, the rest showed movement to Obama.
05-06-2008 , 12:37 AM
zogby is toying with the hopes of obama supporters obv.
05-06-2008 , 12:45 AM
Also, he is the only pollster who polled 5/5 apparently, so its hard to see if its just an outlier. But IA kind of confirmed it by saying in the past few days Obama has been surging in their poll as well.

Tomorrow could be very interesting.
05-06-2008 , 02:31 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DVaut1
Don't get me wrong, I think SUSA is off -- I'd be very surprised if it was Clinton +10% tomorrow -- 21% of AA voters in favor of Clinton sounds very wrong. And AA turnout at 10% sounds on the low side. So I think SUSA is missing the mark. But I'm even more confident Obama has little chance of winning.
I'd be surprised too, but I'd lend it more credence because SurveyUSA has done a damn good job so far.... It'd be weird to see the eff this one up so badly all of a sudden.

Does anyone think HRC drops out in any reasonable scenario after tomorrow?
05-06-2008 , 02:47 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ikestoys

Does anyone think HRC drops out in any reasonable scenario after tomorrow?
It's hard to see what an HRC drop-out would look like at this point. I doubt there would be an official "suspension" of her campaign; it would be more like a quiet fade-out. And it won't happen tomorrow. However, if any of the rumors about Obama's secret clutch of superdelegates are true, and if today's results are enough to provoke them to come out en masse, then I think that by next week she and the MSM might get the message and start treating BHO like the presumptive nominee.

Pure fantasy, I suppose, but it's the only "reasonable scenario" I see.
05-06-2008 , 07:00 AM
Well, it looks like heavy turnout here, in a NC county that should lean to Clinton. AA turnout looks pretty strong. I have phone reports city-wide.

Goooooo.......Hillary!

(Can't help it, I can use DVaut's dough)
05-06-2008 , 08:28 AM
From Open Left this morning:

On Friday I wrote about Clinton's ability to consistently win among late deciders. The last SUSA polling from Indiana suggests the pattern may be repeating in Indiana.

The SUSA Indiana poll has Clinton up 54-42. If you look at the recent polling in Indiana, what becomes apparent is most of the volatility is around Clinton's number. Clinton ranges from a low of 42 (Zogby) to a high of 54 (SUSA). Obama, in contrast, ranges only between 42 (SUSA) and 46 (PPP). This repeats the pattern in Ohio where Clinton ranged in final polling from 56 to 44, but Obama ranged in all but one poll from 42 to 44 and in Pennsylvania where Clinton ranged between 46 and 54 while Obama polled within a narrower range (in most cases between 42 and 44.

This polling suggests that the undecided in places like Ohio and Pennsylvania actually at some level lean to Clinton, something that the exit polling seems to confirm.

This suggests Clinton is likely to win by at least 10 in Indiana. In fact, I would not rule out a Clinton win of 15 or more.

As I also wrote last Friday, late deciders in southern states have broken for Obama and not Clinton. The intuition here is that in places like Indiana the undecided tend to be white and lower class (and break for Clinton) while in the South the undecided tend to be African American (and break for Obama).
05-06-2008 , 08:30 AM
From an article about the final InsiderAdvantage poll:

The final InsiderAdvantage / Majority Opinion Research poll of the North Carolina Democratic Primary suggests a tight battle between Sen. Barack Obama and Sen. Hillary Clinton. The survey of 774 registered likely voters in the Tuesday’s contest was conducted the evening of May 5. It is weighted for age, race, and gender. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 3%.

The results:

Obama: 47%
Clinton: 43%
Undecided: 10%

InsiderAdvantage’s Matt Towery: “This race is going to be closer than most experts expected. If the African-American vote is 35% or higher, then I expect Sen. Obama to win, most likely by a 52%-to-48% margin. If white voters have turned out at a higher than expected level, thus driving the black percentage overall closer to the 31-32% level, then the race could be up for grabs.
05-06-2008 , 08:58 AM
Drudge:

Quote:
Hillary Clinton's inner circle now fears a stinging defeat is likely in North Carolina.

"Look, we worked hard and gave it our best shot, but the demographics, well, they are what they are," a top campaign source explained to the DRUDGE REPORT as voting began Tuesday morning.

The campaign now believes a 15 point loss, or more, would not be surprising. Her team will work hard throughout the day to lower all expectations in North Carolina.
No clue how much this is spin, etc. For all I know the Clinton campaign has internals that show her up 5, then just leaked complete BS to Drudge so now it will be zomg super awesome surprising. But there it is anyway.
05-06-2008 , 09:08 AM
I liked the David Brooks op-ed in the NYT this morning:

Quote:
But, as Sunday’s contrast made clear, Obama still seems like a human being. He still seems to return each night to some zone of normalcy where personal reflection lives. He wasn’t fully candid when answering questions about the Rev. Jeremiah Wright, but there are some inner guardrails that prevent the spin from drifting too far from the truth. Thoughtful and conversational, he doesn’t seem to possess the trait that Clinton has: automatically assuming that critics are always wrong.

Obama still possesses his talent for homeostasis, the ability to return to emotional balance and calm, even amid hysteria. His astounding composure has come across as weakness in the midst of combat with Clinton, but it’s also at the core of his promise to change politics. He vows to calm hatred and heal division.
05-06-2008 , 09:17 AM
Anyone know when Indiana's polls close? I know that North Carolina closes at 7:30.

nm: I found the answer. Indiana's polls close at 7.

Of course, those times don't count the inevitable requests to keep the polls open longer for whatever reason.

Last edited by Wynton; 05-06-2008 at 09:39 AM.
05-06-2008 , 09:28 AM
Quote:
Though my opponent has run a terrific campaign, in primary after primary, I have proven that I am the more electable candidate. I am more electable because I am white. Barack Obama--Wow!--he's certainly inspired a lot of hope, but as voters in Indiana and North Carolina make up their minds, as the superdelegates make up their minds, they should remember that Barack Obama is black. They should also remember that a whole lot of white working-class Americans are racists. White racists are an important part of the Democratic Party, and time and time again, they've supported me because I am white. I am ready on day one to govern as your white American president
http://www.thenation.com/blogs/notion/318011

Quote:
Every pollster and pundit has overheated their logic boards trying to predict how the white working class--that ever elusive, ever mythic bloc--will vote. But the Clinton camp continues to play coy. They talk about bowling scores, shooting ranges and whiskey shots--as if these new-found hobbies account for Clinton's "electability." Even as they leak statistics like--HRC has beaten Obama among white, non-college-educated voters in 26 out of 29 states--they carefully avoid putting the words--"white voters" or heaven forbid "uneducated white voters"!--anywhere near her talking points.
05-06-2008 , 09:35 AM
[ ] News
05-06-2008 , 09:40 AM
First Read says this about the early voting:

"There’s lots of chatter about the 40% of the early vote in North Carolina being African American. If that number somehow holds through Election Day voting, it would be an Obama blowout. But Obama folks caution that they saw this same phenomenon in Texas and found that they had simply moved Election Day voters to early voters."
05-06-2008 , 09:41 AM
7:00, AFAIK.
05-06-2008 , 10:53 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ikestoys

Does anyone think HRC drops out in any reasonable scenario after tomorrow?
FWIW as a measure of her dropout chances, Intrade has her at 93% or so in Kentucky on May 20.
05-06-2008 , 10:54 AM
This is pretty good if you're burnt-out on endless, scripted, completely fact-free media spin:

Quote:
Things You Will Hear Most Often on Cable TV Through Wednesday (Depending on What Happens…)

1. “She did what she had to do.”
2. “She didn’t do what she had to do.”
3. “John McCain is the big winner tonight.”
4. “No matter what, Clinton can’t overtake Obama’s lead in elected delegates.”
5. “There is no way the Democratic Party is going to take the nomination away from an African-American who is the winner of the elected delegate race.”
6. “It was the fight over the gas tax that did it.”
7. “This leaves us right where we were.”
8. “Look at how he did with white, working-class voters in the exit poll.”
9. “People are going to start telling her she needs to get out of this race.”
10. “Once again, he missed a chance to put her away.”
11. “Evan Bayh – he really worked it.”
12. “She’s a fighter.”
13. “He looks tired.”
14. “No doubt about it, the Democratic Party is in chaos.”
15. “Could there be a dream ticket?”
16. “This thing goes on and on.”
17. “Unbelievable!”
18. “Reverend Wright really hurt him.”
19. “Reverend Wright really had no effect.”
20. “This is really about 2012.”
A+ if you ask me. Honestly, you don't even need to watch the pundits tonight; the script is already written. Halperin adds the caveat "depending on what happens", but you'll hear all of this regardless of what happens.
05-06-2008 , 10:55 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by disjunction
FWIW as a measure of her dropout chances, Intrade has her at 93% or so in Kentucky on May 20.
She could conceivably still win Kentucky even if she drops out, though, so some of the market is probably reflecting that. Still, chances of her dropping out are not great because she does have two wins locked up in Kentucky and WV coming up.
05-06-2008 , 10:57 AM
I'm somewhat disappointed in the lack of posts about unreliable, anecdotal accounts of today's voting.

Doesn't anyone know a distant relative in Indiana or North Carolina, who can tell us third-hand about how a handful of people voted in some obscure part of the state?

Or am I really supposed to wait for some actual, confirmed reports all day long?
05-06-2008 , 10:58 AM
I wonder how high she will win in WV and KY if the race goes that far. Will Obama be able to hold her under 60%?
05-06-2008 , 11:01 AM
Dvaut, definitely A+.

Edit: It might be missing something about the Bill Clinton factor.
05-06-2008 , 11:05 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by 4 High
I wonder how high she will win in WV and KY if the race goes that far. Will Obama be able to hold her under 60%?
I think she could crush him there - by around 60% - even if he were to manage, somehow, to win Indiana, and even if she actually dropped out (or "suspended") her campaign.

Demographics are demographics. Unless Hillary is actively asking people to vote for Obama at that point, or can formally take her name off the ballot, she should dominate there. And just as they did when Huckabee kept getting votes after McCain was already the presumptive nominee, the media will harp on this as a sign of Obama's weakness in the general election.
05-06-2008 , 11:08 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DVaut1
This is pretty good if you're burnt-out on endless, scripted, completely fact-free media spin:



A+ if you ask me. Honestly, you don't even need to watch the pundits tonight; the script is already written. Halperin adds the caveat "depending on what happens", but you'll hear all of this regardless of what happens.
Quote:
Originally Posted by istewart
Dvaut, definitely A+.

Edit: It might be missing something about the Bill Clinton factor.
Perfect drinking game, imo.
05-06-2008 , 11:21 AM
Define "perfect"... if you're watching MSNBC, it will likely be Eugene Robinson, Buchanan, Maddow, and Scarborough supplementing Olbermann and Matthews. In that case, you'll be dead before the polls close.
05-06-2008 , 11:26 AM
Hasn't anyone yet created a board game out of elections? If not, we should create one.

Just imagine all the possibilities. A roll of the dice could land you on a "new scandal" square, requiring you take 5 steps backwards. Another roll could land you an endorsement.

There could even be scenarios for convention fights.

      
m