Let us hope this is PA Zogby and not CA Zogby



The last polls from Zogby show:
http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1499

NC: Obama leads 51-37
IN: Obama leads 45-43 (the 5/5 half was 47-41 Obama)

On the plus side, only one of the last polls in Indiana showed movement to Clinton, the rest showed movement to Obama.

zogby is toying with the hopes of obama supporters obv.

Also, he is the only pollster who polled 5/5 apparently, so its hard to see if its just an outlier. But IA kind of confirmed it by saying in the past few days Obama has been surging in their poll as well.

Tomorrow could be very interesting.

I'd be surprised too, but I'd lend it more credence because SurveyUSA has done a damn good job so far.... It'd be weird to see the eff this one up so badly all of a sudden.

Does anyone think HRC drops out in any reasonable scenario after tomorrow?

It's hard to see what an HRC drop-out would look like at this point. I doubt there would be an official "suspension" of her campaign; it would be more like a quiet fade-out. And it won't happen tomorrow. However, if any of the rumors about Obama's secret clutch of superdelegates are true, and if today's results are enough to provoke them to come out en masse, then I think that by next week she and the MSM might get the message and start treating BHO like the presumptive nominee.

Pure fantasy, I suppose, but it's the only "reasonable scenario" I see.

Well, it looks like heavy turnout here, in a NC county that should lean to Clinton. AA turnout looks pretty strong. I have phone reports city-wide.

Goooooo.......Hillary!

(Can't help it, I can use DVaut's dough)

From Open Left this morning:

On Friday I wrote about Clinton's ability to consistently win among late deciders. The last SUSA polling from Indiana suggests the pattern may be repeating in Indiana.

The SUSA Indiana poll has Clinton up 54-42. If you look at the recent polling in Indiana, what becomes apparent is most of the volatility is around Clinton's number. Clinton ranges from a low of 42 (Zogby) to a high of 54 (SUSA). Obama, in contrast, ranges only between 42 (SUSA) and 46 (PPP). This repeats the pattern in Ohio where Clinton ranged in final polling from 56 to 44, but Obama ranged in all but one poll from 42 to 44 and in Pennsylvania where Clinton ranged between 46 and 54 while Obama polled within a narrower range (in most cases between 42 and 44.

This polling suggests that the undecided in places like Ohio and Pennsylvania actually at some level lean to Clinton, something that the exit polling seems to confirm.

This suggests Clinton is likely to win by at least 10 in Indiana. In fact, I would not rule out a Clinton win of 15 or more.

As I also wrote last Friday, late deciders in southern states have broken for Obama and not Clinton. The intuition here is that in places like Indiana the undecided tend to be white and lower class (and break for Clinton) while in the South the undecided tend to be African American (and break for Obama).

From an article about the final InsiderAdvantage poll:

The final InsiderAdvantage / Majority Opinion Research poll of the North Carolina Democratic Primary suggests a tight battle between Sen. Barack Obama and Sen. Hillary Clinton. The survey of 774 registered likely voters in the Tuesday’s contest was conducted the evening of May 5. It is weighted for age, race, and gender. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 3%.

The results:

Obama: 47%
Clinton: 43%
Undecided: 10%

InsiderAdvantage’s Matt Towery: “This race is going to be closer than most experts expected. If the African-American vote is 35% or higher, then I expect Sen. Obama to win, most likely by a 52%-to-48% margin. If white voters have turned out at a higher than expected level, thus driving the black percentage overall closer to the 31-32% level, then the race could be up for grabs.

Drudge:

No clue how much this is spin, etc. For all I know the Clinton campaign has internals that show her up 5, then just leaked complete BS to Drudge so now it will be zomg super awesome surprising. But there it is anyway.

I liked the David Brooks op-ed in the NYT this morning:

Anyone know when Indiana's polls close? I know that North Carolina closes at 7:30.

nm: I found the answer. Indiana's polls close at 7.

Of course, those times don't count the inevitable requests to keep the polls open longer for whatever reason.

http://www.thenation.com/blogs/notion/318011

[ ] News

First Read says this about the early voting:

"There’s lots of chatter about the 40% of the early vote in North Carolina being African American. If that number somehow holds through Election Day voting, it would be an Obama blowout. But Obama folks caution that they saw this same phenomenon in Texas and found that they had simply moved Election Day voters to early voters."

7:00, AFAIK.

FWIW as a measure of her dropout chances, Intrade has her at 93% or so in Kentucky on May 20.

This is pretty good if you're burnt-out on endless, scripted, completely fact-free media spin:

A+ if you ask me. Honestly, you don't even need to watch the pundits tonight; the script is already written. Halperin adds the caveat "depending on what happens", but you'll hear all of this regardless of what happens.

She could conceivably still win Kentucky even if she drops out, though, so some of the market is probably reflecting that. Still, chances of her dropping out are not great because she does have two wins locked up in Kentucky and WV coming up.

I'm somewhat disappointed in the lack of posts about unreliable, anecdotal accounts of today's voting.

Doesn't anyone know a distant relative in Indiana or North Carolina, who can tell us third-hand about how a handful of people voted in some obscure part of the state?

Or am I really supposed to wait for some actual, confirmed reports all day long?

I wonder how high she will win in WV and KY if the race goes that far. Will Obama be able to hold her under 60%?

Dvaut, definitely A+.

Edit: It might be missing something about the Bill Clinton factor.

I think she could crush him there - by around 60% - even if he were to manage, somehow, to win Indiana, and even if she actually dropped out (or "suspended") her campaign.

Demographics are demographics. Unless Hillary is actively asking people to vote for Obama at that point, or can formally take her name off the ballot, she should dominate there. And just as they did when Huckabee kept getting votes after McCain was already the presumptive nominee, the media will harp on this as a sign of Obama's weakness in the general election.

Perfect drinking game, imo.

Define "perfect"... if you're watching MSNBC, it will likely be Eugene Robinson, Buchanan, Maddow, and Scarborough supplementing Olbermann and Matthews. In that case, you'll be dead before the polls close.

Hasn't anyone yet created a board game out of elections? If not, we should create one.

Just imagine all the possibilities. A roll of the dice could land you on a "new scandal" square, requiring you take 5 steps backwards. Another roll could land you an endorsement.

There could even be scenarios for convention fights.