Democratic Race Going Forward (PA in 1 week on 4/22, IN and NC in 3 weeks on 5/6) - Page 44 - Politics and Economics

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Democratic Race Going Forward (PA in 1 week on 4/22, IN and NC in 3 weeks on 5/6)

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05-06-2008 , 08:39 PM

#1076

DVaut1

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Turnout in Indiana is going to be around 1.1 to 1.2 million; may mitigate some of Obama's popular vote totals coming out of NC if Clinton wins up with a big win there, but it's tough to calculate.

05-06-2008 , 08:39 PM

#1077

Francis_MH

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Quote:

Originally Posted by DVaut1

Based on what?

Was it highly educated people who voted for Bush because they didn't want gays to get married? I think generally that educated voters are known to go one way, and its the fringe moderates, who republicans try to convince to vote on their "values" rather than their wallets.

05-06-2008 , 08:41 PM

#1078

pvn

Guest

Posts: n/a

Quote:

Originally Posted by DVaut1

100% of super secret covert delegates.

Sweet. Everyone thinks Hillary is going to steal the nomination, but the REAL drama will be when DR PAUL'S submarine delegate fleet surfaces at the GOP convention!

05-06-2008 , 08:46 PM

#1079

DVaut1

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Quote:

Originally Posted by DVaut1

This is tricky for NC; for one, does it include early voters? I suspect not, if it's just an exit poll.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dynasty

I believe all the exit polling includes early voters.

Follow up:

I still have no idea how exit polls take into account early voters. pollster.com on this:

http://www.pollster.com/blogs/

Quote:

8:11 - Reader RS asks a really good question: "Maybe this question has been answered earlier, but: Do the exit polls account for early voters?"

The networks typically do a pre-election telephone interviews among those who say they have already voted in states that typically get (or expect) a very large proportion of early voters, so I assume that they did one in North Carolina. But to be honest, I'm not sure.

So even professional pollsters don't seem to know.

05-06-2008 , 08:50 PM

#1080

pvn

Guest

Posts: n/a

Quote:

Originally Posted by DVaut1

I didn't hear that but Ford is a DLC hack that I thought was in the bag for Clinton, even though he hasn't officially endorsed. Mildly surprised he was out there peddling Obama spin.

bros before hos imo

05-06-2008 , 08:51 PM

#1081

DVaut1

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Quote:

Originally Posted by pvn

bros before hos imo

Good point.

05-06-2008 , 08:53 PM

#1082

gobbomom

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no Harold Ford was in the bag for Clinton. Now, he's just begging Barack for a place on the ticket, lol.

05-06-2008 , 08:53 PM

#1083

Wynton

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Join Date: Sep 2003 Posts: 15,189

CNN just said that a group of nuns showed up in Indiana with outdated photo identification, so were unable to vote.

05-06-2008 , 08:55 PM

#1084

thedudelb

enthusiast

Join Date: Mar 2008 Posts: 74

Indiana seems to be gettin 2points closer about every 10%

05-06-2008 , 08:55 PM

#1085

jah7_fsu1

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Aug 2005 Posts: 5,867

Quote:

Originally Posted by DVaut1

Clinton campaign is prepared to announce tomorrow they raised 300 million dollars overnight, though, based on the fact someone pledged $30 an hour ago, and extrapolated forward if 10,000,000 voters do the same between now and then.

Well played sir.

05-06-2008 , 08:55 PM

#1086

MrWookie

Don't Call Me Meredith

Join Date: Feb 2005 Posts: 94,159

What probably had a bigger impact was the college students getting turned around for not having an IN-issued ID.

05-06-2008 , 08:55 PM

#1087

Francis_MH

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53-47 HC in IN with 65% in...

05-06-2008 , 08:56 PM

#1088

Double Eagle

Health Care Thread Czar

Join Date: Dec 2003 Posts: 8,323

They had to cast provisional ballots, which everyone who did not have proper ID had to do per the law that just got upheld by SCOTUS.

05-06-2008 , 09:00 PM

#1089

MrWookie

Don't Call Me Meredith

Join Date: Feb 2005 Posts: 94,159

I'm kinda surprised that Obama is speaking first tonight. He's obviously the bigger winner.

05-06-2008 , 09:02 PM

#1090

DVaut1

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http://ccpsblog.blogspot.com/

Quote:

8:52PM: CBS was too early in calling Indiana. Only about half of the Marion County vote is in, and he is winning that by about 25K votes. If he wins the second half by the same margin, that cuts her lead in half. And not a single vote has come in from Gary yet. IF Clinton wins this state, it is going to be fairly close and I think the votes are out there for Obama to catch up. I'm not saying it WILL happen, but it certainly COULD and the early call from CBS was probably too soon.

05-06-2008 , 09:04 PM

#1091

cpitt398

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Apr 2005 Posts: 4,113

Quote:

Originally Posted by DVaut1

http://ccpsblog.blogspot.com/

yes, thats all I ask for is a good sweat.

Just want a no spotter

05-06-2008 , 09:04 PM

#1092

Wynton

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From Open Left:

"It looks like Obama will win North Carolina by 15% or more, and manage to only lose Indiana by only 3-4%. Overall, he will beat expectations in both states, so long as expectations are defined as final polling averages. Further, these wins will translate both into an overall delegate victory, and a substantial popular vote victory. Given that Obama was already ahead in both categories (delegate info here and popular vote info here), and that there are now very few states remaining, that is a very good night for him. Really, even though he was already gaining on McCain, it is just what he needed to help turn around the media narrative."

If these margins hold up as they predict, I will officially throw away my Doom and Gloom report. Then you all get to see the "Rosy General Election-Predictor" version of Wynton.

05-06-2008 , 09:05 PM

#1093

jah7_fsu1

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Aug 2005 Posts: 5,867

Quote:

Originally Posted by DVaut1

http://ccpsblog.blogspot.com/

Don't tease me like this D...where is Wynton to keep your good news in check?

Last edited by jah7_fsu1; 05-06-2008 at 09:05 PM. Reason: Speak of the ****ing devil.

05-06-2008 , 09:06 PM

#1094

DVaut1

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Limbaugh Effect Mattered?

Quote:

Thirty-six percent of primary voters said that Clinton does not share their values. And yet, among that total, one out of every five (20 percent) nevertheless voted for her in the Indiana election. Moreover, of the 10 percent of Hoosiers who said "neither candidate" shared their values, 75 percent cast their ballots for Clinton.

These are not small numbers.

Pretty lol if Limbaugh wins IN for Clinton.

05-06-2008 , 09:09 PM

#1095

jah7_fsu1

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Join Date: Aug 2005 Posts: 5,867

Quote:

Originally Posted by DVaut1

Limbaugh Effect Mattered?

Pretty lol if Limbaugh wins IN for Clinton.

Why does this d-bag not get called out by the right for repeatedly asking for voter fraud? Some party of "morals."

05-06-2008 , 09:10 PM

#1096

DVaut1

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Quote:

Originally Posted by jah7_fsu1

Why does this d-bag not get called out by the right for repeatedly asking for voter fraud? Some party of "morals."

meh, feels like ages ago, but Democrats were doing it in Michigan -- asking other Democrats to turn out for Romney in light of the fact that the Democratic race was meaningless.

05-06-2008 , 09:10 PM

#1097

jjhender

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CNN seems much more positive for Obama tonight than any time I can remember in the campaign. A little strange I guess considering the math has been a forgone conclusion for close to 2 months.

Lol at Wolf mentioning "split decision" every 10 minutes or so though. I guess they will probably split states tonight, but a thin margin in Indiana and getting torched in NC probably isn't the split that Clinton has in mind.

05-06-2008 , 09:12 PM

#1098

JohnEPark

grinder

Join Date: May 2005 Posts: 598

MSNBC says IN now too close to call... as opposed to too early to call.

05-06-2008 , 09:13 PM

#1099

DVaut1

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Quote:

Originally Posted by JohnEPark

MSNBC says IN now too close to call... as opposed to too early to call.

IMO it's going to be less than 3%; should be interesting to see if Obama can get it close enough so morning papers have to go to print with IN too close to call.