Hendo should easily outlast Melendez, should prolly be more like -300-350 imo.

Thompson can outwrestle diaz maybe and I think Diaz is a bit overrated bc of his 3 fight win streak prior to hendo.

Nelson should TKO/KO Kongo. He has the grappling advantage, better chin and Kongos chin is very suspect and striking defense not all that great.

Davis is an above average grappler with very good wrestling. Should be able to controll magaelhes and avoid any subs magaelhes goes for.

This, none of the stuff elliott said has any relevance to scoring of the fight. And I actually feel the opposite WRT to "tinted glasses" I think people got caught up in he Kelvin underdog story and wanted to score the fight for him, all things being equal (no bet on either side).

Pretty much agree with everything in Swiiftx's last post. I especially like Thomson, Diaz seems like a pretty favorable matchup for him. He's a talented grappler and if he can take down Melendez he can certainly get Diaz to the floor. What he's able to do once he gets there...probably not a ton but it should be enough to take a decision.

Also agree with Swoop on Mendes/Elkins. Elkins is a grinder and he gets after you but his record is very misleading. Mendes is gonna roll him over.

Uhm. I think im Anderson silva, gonna throw the fight by dumb **** just like overeem.

Uriah went full ******

Watched it for the first time (TV view) earlier, and I stick with my initial assessment that it was a fair decision on round 3, Kelvin landed the 2 most significant strikes from standing in the round, had centre of the cage and scored more takedowns one of which being a suplex which always looks good to the judges. Wouldn't have been the worst robbery and I can see some argument the other way but it was the correct result.

Interestingly the fight looked very different live, Hall was backed close to the cage for lots of the round which is more obvious in person than on tv due to camera angles which gives the feeling he is being more dominated to the crowd/judges than it does for those at home.

Here's round 3 is anyone wants to revisit it: http://www.mma-core.com/videos/fight...art_4/10051931

The interesting thing is, I believe many people would believe Uriah won that. Kelvin got a lot more work in but when Uriah actually did something it looked so spectacular and I had a feeling the judges would go more based on that when it was announced as a split decision.

I honestly don't think this loss hurt Uriah in anyway (except he didn't get his Harley) though in terms of how the UFC will use him.

He's better off not being stuck on the TUF contract anyway

I'm definitely over it as "my guy" got the decision and i felt it was just, but just some food for thought, here's how mma media scored it.


MEDIA SCORES
Adam Martin
Sportsnet.ca 29-28 Gastelum
Chris Nelson
Sherdog.com 29-28 Gastelum
Jordan Breen
Sherdog.com 29-28 Gastelum
************** 29-28 Gastelum
Luke Thomas
MMAFighting.com 29-28 Gastelum
MMAJunkie.com 29-28 Gastelum
Jason Floyd
TheMMAReport.com 29-28 Gastelum
Nathan McCarter
BleacherReport.com 28-29 Hall
Mike Whitman
Sherdog.com 28-29 Hall
Brent Brookhouse
BloodyElbow.com 28-29 Hall


Not interested in engaging in a debate about the fight.

Thoughts on the line?

I thinks it's a good bet, I'm expecting a decision

Two master of lay n pray, only one has any punching power. Sounds +EV to me.

Thanks for the input guys

hm made a bet on hendo/el nino over 4.5R at -290... waiting for cormier by tko and thomson by decision odds... might strike if it starts with some good odds... similar with props/odds on mendes/benavides ...

How is Woodleys sub defense?

btw, stupid question: Is it Bendo or Hendo? I always thought his nn was Bendo, but now i feel stupid saying as almost everyone in this thread says Hendo.
Which is it?

I also bet o4.5r on the Gil/Bendo fight at -290 at 5D today. The goes the distance prop was actually 10c worse at the time, which is lol.

Regarding Woodley's sub defense, I haven't seen most of his fights, but getting +125 for o2.5r I'm not that worried about it. Jake might get knocked out, Tyron might get subbed, but I think it's very clear that decision is the most likely outcome for the fight. Imo the over should be at least -200. Shields hasn't subbed anyone in a while, and most of the subs he gets are against guys with no ground game. Woodley's not a total slouch grappling, I only see him being subbed if he decides to be really active on the ground attacking with sub attempts, taking risks that could give Shields an opening to advance poistion. It's possible, but unlikely.

Also, I've always called Benson "Bendo", fwiw.

haha right it's bendo, not hendo... my bad ^^ and i think it should be like 9/10 times a decision... both have very good cardio and only bendo has been stopped once long time ago...

Anyone else thinks Mir is going to get destroyed? Mir is not getting down Cormier, this is a new breed of elite wrestlers, he has a stocky build and is very fast, those are the guys u least see getting subbed. Cormiers hands are faster than Mirs, and he doesn't seem to have a bad chin at all, ppl u also usually see with a good chin, short stocky dudes. Mir as of late has looked real sluggish and whilst I think he beats a lot of dudes, he isn't top 5 anymore and I think Cormier is around that ranking. Mirs future in the division is beating fighters like Struve, Hunt, having competetive fights with Werdum, Silva, Browne etc.

I've actually gone with Mir as an underdog in this one. +320

Mir has been historically very lazy about training and not given it 100%, this fight he moved to Jacksons, is saying all the right things and his sparring partner is Jones (couldn't be better as he is fast paced and a strong wrestler, I also believe he is one of the few guys who is a level above Cormier).

As much as I loath Jackson game plans I would expect to see a new Mir here who has a genuine route to victory. Cormier is obviously still the favourite I just don't see the value when he's currently -350 to -500 on the available lines

The problem is he's facing a guy who he cannot enforce his gameplan on, just like when he faced JDS. Yeah Mir is the better bjj grappler, but he can't get it to the ground vs cormier so he's basically relying on cormier taking him down and capitalizing on any weakness in cormiers top game, which I don't think there are many of. Just like mo says, don't think any fighter will get to top level by relying on being in someones guard(not saying mir has done this, as he is overall a skilled fighter with top 3 best submission skills in the division).
I think Mirs only chance here is outstriking cormier somehow, but I think Cormier has too fast hands for that to happen.

I'd be with you 100% if he hadn't spent the last 3 months sparring everyday with Jones who's effectively Cormier with better strikes and a longer reach. Mir won't be shocked by anything Cormier has to offer.

Frank won't be able to score an early takedown but if his camp was effective should be able to hold his own standing. I'm expecting a leg kick heavy offence from Mir, to both slow Cormier down and tempt him to take it to the ground. Mir has Ko power in his strikes and Cormier will likely put Mir on his back at some point opening up the sub possibility.

Cormier is as I said definitely the favourite but Mir has put himself in the perfect place to prepare, something he hasn't been willing to do in the past.

http://mmaliveshere.com/2013/04/15/f...enting-myself/

We've heard the same old story a million times. I'm in the camp, can't teach an old dog new tricks. After you have done something so many times as they have, it becomes automatic what to do and it's hard to get rid of old habbits. Just look at alistair, he crumbles even now to punches and it's something they prolly have worked on a ton but it's still there. Yeah Mir will come out and maybe follow gameplan for about 1 minute, then all that goes out the window, just like Tyson said, you have a gameplan until you get punched in the face.

Beside, it's not the first time Mir talks about change of gameplan. He talked about starting lifting weights to get the strength to match Carwin and all that, then after he lost that fight, he came up with a new approach, starting to use his natural resources, weighin less and focus on what he's good at and get that speed goin.
And it's not as easy as just starting to throw more leg kicks, if it was like that, everyone would be doing it, but the thing is, it opens up to counter-attacks, it takes stamina and is something a HW like Mir can't do on a regular basis.

I like Mir so it's nothing against him, I just think he's skillwise, athletic wise outmatched versus a type of opponent who don't get subbed easily (short stocky guys).

any ideas about mein vs brown? I haven't watched Mein's SF fights... but he indeed was looking quite calm and sharp in his last fight with quite a high level escape and a very calculated finish of miller. But Miller actually at first missed weight and really looked crappy before the fight, so this fight might not have been as representative, since I think Miller usually is not finished as easy.

Brown won four straight fights in 2012 - obviously not against the very best competition, but he should be very confident now (last two fights by TKO) and can also grind down his opponents if necessary. Also... UFC wins > SF wins.

Somehow the line seems to be a little bit off... Brown probably shouldn't be a favourite, but is there some kind of info I am missing here?

I think line is right, mein should win. Not sure there is any value at current line though.

Brown gona get stomped. Brown is a good grinder (from what I've seen) and he will lose to athletic guys and guys who are more talented than him. Jordan Mein is both.

Definitely like the Viana +318 and Nijem +220 lines - I see both fights being competitive, if Viana can keep it standing for a while he can hurt Dillashaw with his better hands and while LnP is the most likely outcome Viana isn't that much of a dog. Reverse for Nijem, while Jury has better hands, Nijem has better wrestling and if he can land a takedown he can control Jury for 3 rounds enroute to a 30-27

agree with jury nijem, don't know enough about viana though, can't remember seeing him fight. Isn't dillashaw in the small dudes wrestling camp? If so, overall betting against those guys seem -EV. Though if there's anyone beating those guys, it's talented brazilians with above average tdd, is viana one of those?