Mein over Brown, but no way is he value at around -350

Out of interest anyone have thoughts on Aldo vs Pettis? I think Pettis is the better technical striker and is a good early bet right now at +125, will possibly get even better closer to fight time due to name value?

Viana was an undersized FW on TUF Brazil, he lost to the winner in the semis by decision, then knocked out Reuben Duran dropping him a bunch of times in r1 before the KO in his UFC debut - he has better hands than Dillashaw + decent TDD and BJJ, so I think it's okay at +3xx, if Dodson can knock Dillashaw out, Viana can too, he has fast hands.

Jury/Nijem comes down to whether he can get the takedown if he can Nijem wins if not Jury wins.

I like Nijem because he is aggressive, though that can cost him (did against ferguson) but I think he's learned a lot. Myles is def the more skilled and natural talented guy, remember him from tuf, had a really fluid style with nice kickboxing. But I like Nijem at the odds of just out-grinding Myles.

I think i'm going to go with a triple underdog play this card on Nijem, Viana and Mir - only need 1/3 to win for profit. Might also play Bendo, Larkin and Mendes ITD as well depending where the prices end up

This...Mir is gonna get smoked. Is training with Jones gonna help his chin? And nobody there can wrestle like Cormier. Even if he has an edge in the standup, which I doubt, he is gonna go into a shell as soon as Cormier lands a combo on that chin.

Mein is a vicious young striker whose main hole seems to be grappling defense, and Brown isn't exactly known for his wrestling. Give me Mein.

Nijem might be able to beat Jury via wrestling but Jury is definitely a talent. Still might be value there.

Just rewatched Viana's last fight. Will be betting him I think, and I may prop him by KO/TKO if the price is good enough

Dillashaw is a fav but nowhere near as much as the odds say imo

hm henderson by unam. dec. @ +130 over at 5dimes... thomson via decision just dropped from +215 to +195... lol ... now reconsidering this... gonna wait for weighins.... cormier inside distance at -190 hmmm....

ok just bet hendo by unam. dec. and cormier inside distance... probably will leave thomson be... although he said the right things in interview (using blueprint set out by bendo, gsp, condit)... but maybe he looks spectacular at weighins ^^

Love Cormier ITD at -190

and a little bit Mein ITD +100

Could be best bet on the card

any opinions on what the jones/sonnen line should be?

thx

Gut feeling fair price is Jones around -800

Not a site I use but looks like he's available at -650 through sportsbook, they legit?

http://www.bestfightodds.com/

I have 0.25U on sonnen just for fun, fully aware he has almost no hope of winning.

hmmm if you would think that sonnen has a chance somewhere from 10%-20% that's a line bandwidth of +900 till +400 ... the current line of +660 would be sth around 13% ... personally I probably would rather see it around 10-15%? But it also just depends on 1st) if the bulking up (240 lbs) dolce strategy of sonnen works and 2nd) whether he would even be able to impose his will on jones... I would probably see 1)+2) = fail lol... ^^

I think Sonnen is +6xx or so vs Jones. I have him to close out a +78000 parlay if Bendo and Mir win, sadly only for a dollar, but it was one of those lol ones with Akira and a bunch of other dogs who all won in it.

Viana, Nijem, Mendes ITD and Mir I think here. Underdog plays all around. Even going 1/4 would be okay depending who wins, small loss on Nijem and a win on the rest probably depending on the Mendes ITD price. I think I get 2/4 quite a bit.

I quite like Larkin and Means too and possibly even Brown at the price he's at.

Honestly, Starks and Melendez are the only dogs on the card that I wouldn't consider betting at current prices, and Melendez is probably heading towards the true line now.

Crazy movement on Brown/Mein ITD, it's all the way down to -125. I got a half unit in at +140, got lucky it seems.

Mein ITD is up to +134...I don't like it much though, I don't see him getting a sub and Brown's never been knocked out.

3u on JDS -340

He's gonna destroy Hunt and I don't see the line getting better than that.

Also threw 3u on Cain at -604 and 1u on Texeira at -271. Weeeeeee

Coming up I've got 1u each on bendo, nate, and cormier. I wouldn't be surprised if Mir beats Cormier on the feet though.

Added tonight:

Carmont -140
Nijem +215
Brown +290
Elkins/Mendes u2.5r +180
Brown/Mein go the distance

Have my eye on Gil via decision, and if Mir gets up to +400 I might make a small play.

Sonnen has a 5 percent chance at best.

Matt Brown has eleven losses. Nine of those via sub. The other two losses, a split decision to Kim, and a decision loss in his third fight seven years ago.

I need look no further than Stephen Thompson to know he can maul an elite striker. He's never been KO'd, so his chin isn't a concern here.

Mein being favored seems accurate. Brown a much bigger dog -v- Mein than was Cyborg or Zaromskis? This line seems way off. What am I missing?

Serious money came in on Viana, annoyed I missed the line but still value imo.

Underdog card, gl me! Should either win or lose big quite often here unless I go exactly 2/5 on the 2u bets and 1/2 on the 1u bets

2u Mir +341 - Mir has a chance standing if he can avoid being hit hard and early, and if Cormier takes him down Mir has a good chance to grab a limb. If Mir's chin doesn't fail him in the first minute or two I see this as being closer to a flip.
2u Larkin +118 - Carmont is a terrible fighter and it's a matter of time until he loses. Hopefully Larkin's the guy to do it.
2u Nijem +219 - I think he lands the takedown around half the time in r1, and when he gets the takedown he's a decent fav.
2u Means +122 - I think he's a slightly better fighter than Masvidal at this stage of their careers
2u Viana +269 - If you had to design a non-top 10 fighter to beat Dillashaw, Viana would be it. Heavy hands, accurate striking, decent TDD and BJJ.
1u Brown +292 - Brown's on a bit of a roll and while Mein should win over half the time, Brown is a grinder and I like him at this price against anyone outside the top 15 and I don't think Mein is top 15.
1u Romero -149 - More of a fade Starks because he sucks, but if Romero has wrestling which apparently he does, he should be able to decision starks easily via takedowns and gnp.

Also have Bendo, Mir and Sonnen to close out a 0.01u to win 8u parlay and will probably play Mendes ITD and maybe Bendo straight up as well depending where the lines end up.

Romero does not only have wrestling he's got the best wrestling in all of mma and may be the best athlete in mma.

He could have gotten old but i LOVE a bet on him.

I could never bet Mir against any top5 fighters unless given incredibly long odds.
Cormier ITD prop seem very solid.

Actually he could do well against Big Foot. Maybe even Werdum. But Cormier? Cain? He's going to get slaughtered.

Cormier ITD is way better than Cormier obviously

Added another 2.6u on Romero if his wrestling is really that good it should be a very easy bet

I agree Mir is likely to get knocked out, but he's +341, and he has ways to win, so I don't mind it.

His opponents wrestling is pretty good too, but it's national level. Romero is the elite of the international.
Rumor has it he even gave away gold at the olympics for money.

with that said, he did have a mental breakdown of sorts against Feijao. Probably too much too soon.