silva-210ish over weidman
silva-235ish over gsp

somethings wrong here id say

and it vanished, silva-280

Suprised by that opening line, but I was hoping it'd be wrong in the opposite direction. Weidman +400 is better value than Silva -208 imo, as I think Weidman wins around 25% of the time vs Silva.

+400 (20%) vs 25% +300
-210 (~68%) vs 75% -300

Thoughts on Bendo/Melendez?

The biggest MMA bet I ever made was on Bendo/Edgar II when I got an excellent price on Ben because I guess everyone thought their first fight was close (I thought Ben won by a mile) and so I shipped a lot on him the second time round. It's literally the only time I've ever closed my eyes praying during the judges call. And I don't think I've ever jumped so high in my life either!

Wow, cannot believe that opening, I told my roomate that If silva opens at -450 or better I'm gonna put up to 50u on it.

He bets pretty srsly on NHL/MLB, so has a bunch of money on bookie sites, and saw the opening when I was out and put 30u on it for me at -235ish.

-290 is still huge value too, I'm thinking of putting up to another 45u on this.. Will have to not play as many random sunday turbos for a but.. But this is free money.

I'm a huge Melendez fan and hate bendo, but this is bendos fight.
Already have 5u on bendo, will probably do another 3u.

FML. Wish I'd been around for Silva opening line.

Thoughts on what the opening is gonna be like for Pinnacle? Wondering if I should put down a ton right now on 5d or wait for Pinny line to open.

Put down 29 units on Anderson @ -290. 5d not letting me put more. Just deposited for the 1st time there. Could somebody tell me what their limits are like? Its not letting me wager any more unless the line resets/changes.

lol cpl min after my bet goes down, Silva is now -400. Kinda tilted since I wanted to bet more. Co incidence or not, who knows but I guess I should be happy I at least got 1 bet in.

People are gonna bet Anderson to -500 at this rate. Might as well wait for the last possible minute to hit Weidman.

Or bet Silva now and actually make money.

At -225 or whatever I would definitely be tempted. -300 meh.

Also, Khasbulaev might be my new favorite Bellator fighter. How fun is that guy to watch? Plus his ****ing name is Frodo.

Yeah curious what there cap is? Never even knew they had one, and couldn't find it when searching through there rules.

Ended up getting 75u down though, most of it through my roomate, got between -235 all the way to -370.

Wish this fight was sooner though, decent % of sports betting and poker bankroll locked up :/

Yeah seems to be diff for diff users by the looks of it. They havn't specified.

Added 11u @ -300. 40u total now. Daily deposit limit reached

Chunk of my poker/betting roll getting locked up too now haha. Hope AS doesn't let me down on my 1st ever bet on him


WAR SILVA. Hoping to see some of this

Weidman at +400 with a 25% likelihood of winning carries an edge of 25%.
Silva at -210 (which translates to 67.74%) with a 75% likelihood of winning carries an edge of 10.71%.

(25-20)/20 = 25
(75-67.74)/67.74 = 10.71

Added another 23u on Sportbet. It seems to be owned by 5d. Safe right?

FFS the downfall of only having one book (pinny) seriously think this one of the juiciest opening lines ever and now it's gone. Sigh

Congrats to those who got in early.

Yea I was in same spot. Ended up depositing on 5d and Sportbet just to get in on AS b4 price rockets.

Kinda feel bad that I caught Silva at -215 and ONLY put 3u on it, after reading bout all you that put so many units on him at worse prices. Question for you all, how often do you guys think Silva wins?

I've got Silva capped as an 80%~ favorite although he prolly wins more often than that. I feel the key things to go on here besides the obvious are the fact that Silva knows what Weidman's game plan will be, exactly what his approach will be while Weidman has never faced anybody even remotely close to the calibre and style of Silva. And the very fact that Silva's accepted this kinda confirms the feeling I have had that Silva does not consider him to be much of a threat and prolly thought so all along, deciding just to wait for the best time to take it up.

Weidman's rly green. This will be quite the big stage. He's also coming off an injury and long layoff. Silva will come well prepared. I don't think Weidman will have the effectiveness and tenacity of Chael's game although Weidman's better in terms of power and subs. I think Weidman's most likely only way to win is by UD. I just don't see a KO/TKO or a sub happening against Silva. And I don't think Weidman will be able to keep securing the early TDs every round and dominate for the rest for 5 straight rounds.

Plus its Anderson F'ing Silva. I haven't bought into this hype train and although on paper, it does seem like a bad matchup for Silva, I don't see him having much of a problem. I feel like Silva will prolly have a loss before he retires but it will be to Jones if at all and its not gonna happen anytime soon.

really expecting silva to come out clown weidman to show he was never worthy and finish under 2.5 rounds

I'll be honest, I don't understand the over-the-top excitement over the Silva line. -290 is nice and all, but if Silva's true odds are 80%, that's only an 8% edge. With true odds of 85% you're at 14% edge. Which, like I said, is nice.....in small market MMA it's pretty easy to find better though. To everyone that loves Silva at around -300, how often do you think Condit or Vitor win their next fights?

Holy Jesus WTF Anderson opened -208?

LOL

Even at -288, i'm going to have probably 20 units on this

True line probably closer to -500 or slightly more

anderson is more of a lock then gsp imo. its hard to bet for condit when his opponent seems throwing a brick at every opponent he touches. vitor is solid bet only losses are best of the best recently.