Nah Davis will prob win a boring 30-27 but I think the line is around accurate since Davis will have to take Vinny to the ground and he can sub anyone if they leave an opening.

Feeling really good about the card, all of my picks were in line with the Sherdog reviewer, i'm really liking Roop/Ring/Condit/GSP at current prices, with my plays on Voelker, Cruickshank and Ricci all being okay but fairly marginal I guess

I really want to fade Elkins but Carvalho is just so... meh. I'll def be fading Elkins when he gets a top 15 guy though. Brandao beats him like 75% of the time at least with proper gameplanning, and he got a lucky decision vs omigawa i think it was he just isnt very good

0.25U Diaz, I know it's dead money but will make the fight more fun

0.5U GSP, Marq, Hendrix parley

DUnno about davis being submitted, he's one of those strong wrestlers, with a good base and also very good grappling/BJJ game. Can he get caught, sure, but it doesn't happen often at all.

162 card so far

Middleweight Championship bout: Anderson Silva (c) vs. Chris Weidman[2]
Middleweight bout: Roger Gracie vs. Tim Kennedy[4]
Middleweight bout: Mark Muñoz vs Tim Boetsch[5]
Middleweight bout: Andrew Craig vs. Chris Leben[6]
Welterweight bout: Seth Baczynski vs. Brian Melancon[6]
Featherweight bout: Ricardo Lamas vs. Chan Sung Jung[7]

Looks like we're halfway there, if the remaining six fights are of equal caliber i'll be happy. Silva/Weidman is a good main, Lamas/Jung could almost be a co-main but i'm hoping it's the third big fight and they add one more major one.Gracie/Kennedy is either an excellent prelim or average main card fight, same with Munoz/Boetsch. Craig/Leben will be a fun undercard fight if Leben isn't totally washed up and Baczynski/Melancon is meh whatever facebook prelim fodder

I'm hoping for Edgar/Swanson co-main, Maia/Lawler maincard, Lauzon/Wiman to headline the undercard on Fuel, Cariaso/Formiga on the undercard, Bermudez/Holloway on the undercard (wtf how are both guys and Rony Jason not even top 50 on Fightmatrix) then give us one more facebook prelim throwaway fight with random nobodies/newcomers

That would round the card out to a bunch of the guys I had got booked in fights (Gracie even on this card but with a different opponent)

So here's my new fantasy card now that the card has been partially released

Main Card

Anderson/Weidman (Main)
Edgar/Swanson (Co-Main)
Maia/Lawler
KZ/Lamas
Munoz/Boetsch

Prelims on FX/Fuel

Lauzon/Wiman
Bermudez/Holloway
Gracie/Kennedy
Craig/Leben
Guelmino/Palelei (new HW signings)

Facebook Prelims

Baczynski/Melancon
Cariaso/Formiga

Speculation on Lamas/Jung opening price? I'm guessing maybe Lamas -130/KZ +110? Or am I underrating KZ here?

Added 0.7u on Carvalho because I can't help myself and want to fade Elkins, and will be sad when Elkins edges out yet another 29-28 while looking awful

My bets so far

4.6u GSP + 2u prop in thread @ evens on GSP ID/Diaz U45.5 points
3.xu Condit
3.xu Ring
2u Roop
1.xu Cruickshank
1u Voelker
0.7u Carvalho

+ parlays with those picks, Dillashaw and Ricci in various small combinations. Will probably have more on GSP, Condit, Ring and Roop by the time i'm done betting.

I like GSP because he's GSP and Diaz doesn't have sufficient takedown defense to win any rounds, Condit due to being more of a technical volume striker than Hendricks plus underdog in a fight I slightly lean towards him in, Ring due to better wrestling, Camozzi being overrated and the fight being in Canada in a fight that is likely to be competitive and go to decision, Roop due to HUGE size and reach advantage, assuming he handles the cut correctly, plus Duran looked totally awful against Hugo Viana who lit him up standing despite being a much smaller guy than Roop, Cruickshank due to 4 inch reach advantage in what will be a kickboxing battle between similarly skilled guys, Carvalho due to underdog + Elkins being a terrible fighter despite Carvalho not having convinced me he's a particularly good fighter either. Voelker because underdog plus Cote looked awful against Le and even worse against Sakara who is a low-level UFC caliber fighter and his chin seems to be shot, Ricci because he has good striking and Fletcher isn't a wrestler at all + Ricci showed vs Magny he can deal with tall lanky fighters, Dillashaw because Tamura won't be able to stop his takedowns and short of landing a quick punch that puts Dillashaw out before the first takedown, Tamura will just get taken down and beaten up and won't have the spring in his step to land his puncher's chance in any of the later rounds since Dillashaw is just going to spam takedowns and get them.

I'm actually quite tempted to go really heavy on GSP/Condit/Ring/Roop as GSP is pretty much a lock (I expect this to be his easiest title defense since Hardy and look roughly like Bendo/Nate looked) and I think the other three who average out to slightly better than evens go 2-1 and 3-0 significantly more often than 1-2 or 0-3 respectively.

Anyone like Miller or Mulhern at all? I think at the current lines the underdogs seem more attractive than the favs even though Mein and Story should win. Will probably just stay away.

Marquardt/Ellenberger I think i'm definitely staying away, just want to enjoy the fight - I might bet on u2.5 rounds if I can get decently better than evens. Dillashaw, Condit, Ricci and GSP inside distance are all very tempting too

As simple as it may sound, that is a perfect thought process.

This.

I'm with Swoop 100% on Elkins, think he is gonna be in way over his head very soon and was lucky to get as far as he has. Omigawa clearly beat him I thought, and Brandao was crushing him til he gassed at like the 6 minute mark. Should have been a draw anyway, obvious 10-8 first round. Not sure this is the fight to fade him though so probably staying away.

Don't see how anyone can back Roop though, dude is gonna look downright sickly at 135 if he even makes it.

I'll be on Zombie if he's a dog against Lamas. Lamas still doesn't have me convinced...losing 7 minutes and then winning because your opponent acted like a moron after you slipped is pretty meh regardless of the actual finishing sequence.

Evans/Henderson opens even.

I heard last time Roop fought at 135 he looked terrible. Dude is a pretty big guy so id stay away from him or bet against him because that cut will have him look pretty drained.

Interesting:

Hendo starts at +100 now -140
Evans starts at -140 now +100

I never look at opening lines as I wait for them to appear in the books I normally use, but can someone explain how it can flip like that within 20 mins of opening?

I see Evans winning this one as long as he is there mentally (as we discussed a few pages back).

MAG AAAAAA LAYYYSSS

Moved back to evens now.

I'm going to wait and see with this one, if Rashad is motivated he should beat Hendo 30-27 fairly easily, if he isn't motivated then Hendo probably puts him to sleep. Hendo always does the same thing, is Rashad prepares properly he should win via superior gameplan and superior athletic conditioning, if he doesn't prepare he's just going to get H-Bombed.

In a vacuum I lean towards Rashad I guess, both guys were thoroughly unimpressive in their last outing, although Rashad was worse due to Machida being a better fighter than Lil'Nog

Did you even see Duran fight Viana? Viana is going to be quite decent at 135 but was pretty much undersized at 145 so he is still a small BW. Duran looked totally helpless, got rocked multiple times standing landing next to no significant offense and got finished by strikes in the first round. If Roop connects on him he's going to fall in a crumpled heap again.

If Roop can cut the weight, he's a huge favourite here. Duran is just a terrible fighter, and Roop is the guy who beat KZ and arguably Hioki a full weight class above where he's fighting now.

I'm very confident in Roop, unless he has a terrible weight cut and gasses inside a round he should win fairly easily. Duran only has a puncher's chance against him tbh, I doubt he can win by decision unless he decides to try and take Roop down and it's not like he's an NCAA guy. He's fought much better guys than Duran and while he's usually lost, he's going to be SO much bigger than Duran and roughly equally skilled. Duran can probably turn his lights out with a punch but that's the only way I see Duran winning

Surely they'll give Maia someone tougher than Lawler.

No sense in betting Roop til weigh ins at very least.

Trying to decide if I should hope for a better line on Makdessi...

yeah this, no doubt Roop is the better fighter, it's just the weight cut, he looked terribly drained at 135 last time, so I'd wait to see if he has any problem. I mean, if there's any situations where one should wait for the weigh ins, it's for fighters dropping down in weight class from their normal one, especially if the last time they did it, they looked terrible.

Line will move drastically one way or the other depending

Re: Maia/Lawler, Lawler after beating Koscheck is the highest ranked guy available other than Kampmann who has stated he wants the GSP/Diaz loser (both of which would be good fights) and also Kampmann is coming off a loss and they like to match up guys who are coming off wins when trying to build a new contender, plus Rory Mac who is injured

I suppose they may hold off on making a fight in case Condit beats Hendricks, if that's the case then Maia is probably next in line for a title shot since Marquardt/Ellenberger winner would probably need one more win

I suppose they could give the shot to Saffiedine and have Maia face the Condit/Hendricks winner, but I feel like if it's Hendricks who wins he gets the title shot. If Condit wins he should probably fight Rory once he's back from injury, which means Maia needs to fight Lawler in the meantime and then collect his title shot with a win - they don't want to risk losing contenders since GSP is so close to cleaning out the division

We're assuming GSP retains of course, if Diaz wins and Condit wins, then setting up Diaz/Condit 2 if he beats Hendricks is the obvious play.

If GSP wins it would appear that the contenders left who haven't lost to GSP before and are on a win streak are (not incl Rory Mac since he's injured and won't fight GSP since they train together)

Hendricks (gets the first shot with a win over Condit)
Maia
Saffiedine
Marquardt/Ellenberger winner, Lawler

So if Hendricks wins he gets the shot, Maia fights Lawler or Saffiedine for the next shot

If Hendricks loses, Saffiedine gets a unification bout with the SF title and they can sell it as Champ vs Champ, Maia fights and probably beats Lawler easily due to good stylistic matchup and will be on a 4 fight win streak over Kim, Story, Fitch and Lawler with wins over both strikers and wrestlers and fights GSP after he beats Saffiedine - in the meanwhile, Diaz fights Kampmann and Marquardt/Ellenberger winner fights Condit, and Hendricks is given a rebuilding fight against the loser of Marquart/Ellenberger, or Story if he wins.

Seems about the most logical way how u outlined it. Can't see why they would choose anything differently.

If GSP cleans out the division and I mean, wins against Hendricks, Maia, Saffiedine, Ellenberger then he retains nr 2 spot imo as p4p(yes Jones is impressive, but he's only cleaned out the division once and imo it's about how many times you clean out a division and how you do it) and pushes down Jon Jones to 3rd p4p. GSP would then be on a 2nd cleaning of the division and thus imo before jones in p4p rankings.

Don't really care for Lawler, he'll get knocked down of the top 10 rank faster then he got on it.

5u GSP -470 (GSP gona GSP + Diaz doesn't have that one KO power)

2u Condit +120 (More skilled standup and Hendricks usually stands)

2u Camozzi +104 (prolly could have waited for weighins as I think ppl will bet Ring, reason for betting is because I think Ring is pretty bad, remember him as kinda stiff, Camozzi isnt a world beater by any stretch of imagination but he is usually kinda active and has okey cardio that I think he'll be able to out-strike Ring and not get taken down that often)

0.5u Issei +500 (not that impressive by Dillashaw, think he's worse than his training partners mendes n faber, if Issei can keep it standing he has a decent shot imo)

Not the best card for betting, the lines in all cases seems accurate except Condit.

Cote looks in unbelievable shape for this fight he must have taken training very seriously.
just put 1.5U on him as think odds may shift post weigh in

http://www.mmanouvelles.com/2013/03/...4-lbs-ufc-158/

wow.. looks a lot different than last weigh in..

Dillashaw by tko jumped up to +826, grabbed that for 0.5u.

Roop looks like he came str8 from auswitch.

I keep hearing Conditt is the value vs Hendricks but I don't know. Hendricks is a far better wrestler and should be able to take Conditt. Conditt a better technical striker but that Hendricks power can be scary. What are Conditt's legit pathways to victory? Submission on the ground? I don't really see him KOing Hendricks or just winning 3 rounds of standup because Hendricks can take him down.

It should be an interesting fight, Hendricks has definitely looked like a freak (albiet vs subpar comp) but I'm a little surprised why so many here are on Conditt.