i'm not really sure i like gold right now as a trade. as a long term investment and a store of wealth i think everyone should own some physical gold... however the price has the potential to come down quite a bit.

i think the problem is that the stock market is looking very weak and gold will probably go down if the stock market goes down.

i expect gold to go up in the short run if 1) the markets rally from here or 2) if the crisis in the Euro gets worse or 3) some other crisis or problem comes up

if the market goes down significantly and we see gold go up and make new highs... i think that would be very bullish for gold... but i don't think that will happen. So as a trade, you'll probably make more money shorting the markets from here, rather than going long gold.

a better and safer trade would be to go long gold and short the stock market... because i think that gold will out perform stocks from here on both the upside and the downside. If stocks and gold go down, i think stocks will go down more than gold... and if stocks and gold go up, i think that gold will go up more than the stock market.

but we're not seeing any weakness in the US dollar at the moment and i think that would be the main fundamental reason why gold should go up from here. we are also not really seeing any signs of inflation either or people selling off the US government bond market.

I think gold has done really well so far as of late considering how much the US dollar index is up, and the sell off in the stock market.

in the grand scheme of things, i think that gold is undervalued at the moment compared to what most people own in their portfolios, but i think that chances are, gold goes down from here along with the stock market.

i know that a few weeks ago i thought this breakout could take gold up quite a bit more... but the weakness in the stock market the last few weeks really changes things. I think the US dollar is looking too strong and the stock market looking too weak to send gold to new highs. And i think the worst of the sell off in the Euro is more or less over with and i think the Europe situation will calm down for the time being.

i'm obviously not selling any of my gold... but i don't know if i would want to be buying more at these levels... especially not as a short term trade. if i didn't own any gold, i wouldn't be able to sleep comfortably at night knowing i didn't have any real money... so if i didn't have any gold, i would buy some even if i thought it was due for a correction.

though... anything could really happen in a week. my predictions above are more of a general trend for the next few months... i obviously have no clue what is going to happen on any given week... so if you're only long gold for a few days, i'm sure you have your reasons

gold already came down $80. i bought it when it bounced $15 from the bottom with stops below the most recent low. i may very well be long and wrong but i'm not overleveraged so willing to take a loss if i'm wrong.

guy sticks to his word, i was gonna scoop at 1175 but

I wish it would go back down if you are bullish about it this week, so i could get in.

Anyone know what happened to dogsbrekky?

could you please recommend me any great commodity forums besides 2p2?
thanks

lol, i'd be REALLY careful if you make trades based on what i say.

yeah, i scooped 125 and wake up to see im dead even with the gold

Did scoop an extra lot of AUD/short at .83 and my other trade is pimping too.

long gold 1192.1 and 1193

tony, I'm still holding since yesterday.... when u getting off the bus? You looking for like 1222 or u already out at 1200?

i cut at 1198

Meltup

gold to $6k oz, silver to $75 oz..?


Any smart people able to watch the above and post back considered opinons on gold being able to reach such dizzy heights? Video is 50minutes, I found it interesting and thought others in this thread would also appericates its availablity via link there..


bud !
:-)

I'm new to the idea of owning physical gold and silver so i have a few questions. I do have a few gold companies in my portfolio though.

1. I am in Canada and the CDN$ has slid a decent amount vs the US$ in the past few weeks. I think the CDN$ will go closer to parity again if oil prices stabilize but I'm just not sure. Any opinions on currency risk? Should I spread out my purchases over time?

2. Taxation. Basically how does it work when you physically own gold in Canada. Do standard capital gains tax apply the same way they do if you own company stock? How is the gain tracked by CRA?

3. Where should I buy it? I have checked out some of the sites recommended earlier in the thread. A local, long established coin shop also sells at about the same price and no shipping charges are involved. Am I safe to go this way? The shop is called Kitchener Coin if anyone is familiar with the area.

4. Probably a dumb question. How do I sell it? Will any dealer that sells also buy it back at or near the current spot price?

1. even though gold has been flat/falling vs. the US dollar the last few weeks... it's been going up in Canadian dollars because the Canadian dollar is falling. Obviously this can work against you if the reverse happens. Spreading out your purchases over time is a good way to reduce volatility

2. i'm pretty sure normal capital gains tax applies. if you buy from a coin shop and pay in cash... and then sell to the coin shop a few years later for cash... then you'll have to report how much capital gains you made since there is no paper trail of the transactions. especially if you're dealing in amounts under $10k afaik.

3. If it's a reputable and long established coin shop, than you'll probably be fine as long as you're getting a good price. can't really go too wrong buying gold maple leafs from a reputable coin store for $50 over spot or something like that. You can also buy bullion directly from Scotia Bank. Not all branches sell gold, but i know the big branch in downtown toronto sells gold and silver bullion bars (though don't buy maple leafs from them because they charge you some sort of sales tax that they don't charge you when you just buy bullion bars for some reason). you have to fill out a bunch of forms, but you get bullion at a good price. especially if you have US dollars in your account, because they screw you a little bit because they first change your money into US dollars, charge you a fee for that, and then you can buy the bullion from them pretty much at spot + a handling fee or whatever. but if you want a large amount of physical bullion and you want to buy it totally legit and not worried about getting screwed over by some coin dealer, you can go to the bank and you know there will be no problems.

4. most coin stores will buy gold and silver coins or bars. if you're considering buying some Canadian maple leaf 1oz gold coins or something from this coin store... then call the coin store up and tell them you're interested in selling some gold maple leafs and ask them if they want to buy them and how much they are willing to pay for them. The difference between the buy price and the sell price is obviously how the coin store makes money. obviously if they buy for $100 under spot and sell for $100 over spot, that's not really a good deal on either end... but if the difference between the buy and the sell price is maybe between $50 and $75 or something, that's pretty reasonable. maybe it's even less than that... i'm not really sure... haven't had to sell any of my gold yet

so your best option is probably just to buy from the coin store... if they have the type of gold coins or bars you want and it's a good price and it's a reputable business... that's probably the easiest and best way to do it.

anyone short AUD/USD today? Gonna try to bust my forex acct today... in at .8460

Thanks plowking, that helps a lot!

Plowking - maybe you can help.

The Perth Mint is considered a reputable dealer of gold/silver. I have bought gold and silver from them before and have been happy with the spreads for the physical metals and never had any problems.

My question is why on earth are the spreads on there smaller coins so huge. If you go to http://www.perthmint.com.au/metalPrices.aspx you can see the prices for purchasing physical metals through them. The difference between what they buy and sell bigger bars and coins at is reasonable imo but you look at the 1/20 ounce 1/10 ounce, 1/4 ounce coins etc and the premiums are huge in terms of %. Any idea where you can get the smaller sized coins without having to pay through the nose for them?

Thanks in advance

it's always going to me more expensive to buy fractional gold (1/2 oz, 1/4 oz, 1/10th oz, etc.) because it costs more to mint them. in the same way that it's cheaper to buy a 100oz bar of gold as opposed to 100 individual 1oz coins.

you can check the prices on apmex.com and see what they charge for fractional. i think they even sell little gram bars too. if you want the fractional coins, it might be a good idea to buy a coin like the British Sovereign. they are about 1/4 an ounce of gold and i think it is the most recognized coin in the world. i remember hearing somewhere that the US army would put two of these coins in the packs of soldiers just in case they needed money wherever they happen to be in the world. but you have to make sure to get a good price on it since some dealers like to overcharge for numismatics coins... so pay extra for uncirculated coins or anything like that... you can buy old american coins like $5 gold pieces... so when you buy these old circulated coins, you can get them for a pretty good price sometimes. they can't go back in time and make any more of them.

but since the premiums for fractional gold are always higher... people generally buy 1oz silver coins instead... and just save up for the 1oz coins.

the only reasons i can see for people who want fractional gold is if they want to use it for barter (in which case, silver should work just fine).... or they can't afford a full oz of gold... so i would say just save up for 1oz or buy silver (poor man's gold)

and even though i'm a big gold bull, and i only really invest in physical gold and silver... i could very easily see a scenario where gold goes down in the short run. If we have a deflationary collapse like we had in 2008, gold could go down again like it did in 2008. I think there's also a chance it rises in that environment also, but it's hard to know for sure. But if asset prices collapse again, gold should go down a lot less than most stocks and bonds. and even if we get a big deflationary crash like Robert Prechter is calling for... i think the Government will bail everyone out, and the Fed will monetize debt and the currency will be destroyed... in which case gold goes way up. So there is a plausible scenario where gold goes way down, before going way up. But i'm not selling any of my gold... and i would hopefully have some cash on the sidelines so that i could buy more at the bottom after the deflationary cycle is finished before the central banks print their way out.

but i think we'll find out later this year if the deflationists are right... i think the market is in a topping process and will break down maybe in August or September or something like that... i'm starting to think that we could have a massive deflationary collapse followed very quickly by a currency collapse... so i just know that i should try and get as much gold as i can before the SHTF.... and keep some cash around to grab any spare ounces of physical i can find before they monetize the wave of bad debt that is defaulting.

but recently, gold has been going up, even when the stock market is down... so if the market does break down in a few months, it will be interesting to see how gold and the US dollar will react to this.

but i still think the DOW:gold ratio is on its way to 1:1 regardless. we're still below 8.5:1 .... so even though the stock market had a huge rally... the stock market really hasn't gained much back versus gold

One thing I never understood about the gold bugs is that they think gold will go to 2K or 3K or 4K or even 5K within a year or two. Don't they find that to be ridiculous considering that would be percentage gains of 75%-300% in a year or two? Isn't that price action in itself a bubble? How can people give such a ridiculous return to gold and not face the same criticism of an asset bubble?

5,000 in a year... possible... not very likely.

However it seems to be directly related to the depreciation of the currency gold is quoted in... gold has gained about 9% per year since 1971 on the USD.

People should face the same criticism of any asset bubble imho.

honestly you're making yourself look ******ed.

when did i say you cant count the interest on tbills or that gold doesnt pay interest? there is no need for you to make up things. If you lend out gold and take credit risk it will pay interest just like if you take dollars and lend them out. if you WANT TO COMPARE two assets you look for common factors that associate them. Comparing non-lent out dollars to non-lent out gold makes sense. Comparing lent out gold under the same circumstances to lent out dollars makes sense. for example, central banks lend out their gold and their dollars, and if you compare their comparable lending returns on top of purchasing power then you might have a case. this isnt what you did.

holding gold can only change purchasing power but there is no credit risk. the same is true for holding dollars. this is why they are comparable. If you want to take credit risk with one, why would you deny the opportunity to the other when spouting about its returns? The fact is the one asset took risks the other did not so obviously had the potential for returns the other did not.

lol at you if you're able minded and block yourself from understanding simple facts like this.

if you still dont get it, either post something that makes sense as a rebuttal, but dont bother making a jackass remark like this post to try reenforce your initial point emotionally and through fairy tales rather than intellectually.

lol no.

looking at your avatar and your comments im really starting to think you guys might be mentally handicapped and im starting to feel bad.

You're trying to compare money to not-money. How does this not occur to you? You can't use gold for what you can use dollars for, why would you compare them? People hold gold as an investment (typically against being poor when the world goes Mad Max and people hoard gold instead of "juice"), not as money.

You keep harping on this esoteric point which makes no ****ing sense.

actually more than half of US currency exists abroad and most of it is not used for day to day transactions. for example, im in canada, so am i allowed to compare the two now? but this is besides the point.

people hold dollars into the future for purchasing power. gold is only being compared to the dollar in terms of purchasing power. whether you want to call their holding an investment or cash balance is irrelevant. there is a comparable dimension for performance.

Thremp has already been through this, just go 4-5 pages back.

Gold is a monetary metal.

Monetary from Latin monēta which means money and monētārius from Late Latin which means: minter, coiner or of money.

Gold is metal money.

It is also easily digitized. More current proof of gold as money below.

http://www.pecunix.com/

https://c-gold.com/

http://goldmoney.com/index.html