You could get $1900 from ebay ( http://shop.ebay.com/?_from=R40&_trk...All-Categories ) and $1750 from kitco and less from a coin dealer (most likely). Ebay fees+paypal fees+shipping and handling+time+energy+gas+headache= sell it to your friend for $1800 if you think he is a chief and $1850 if you think he is a tribesman.

https://online.kitco.com/bullion/completelist.html
But now Kitco wants $1889 and APMEX wants $1845+S&H

10 of my (yes these are my thoughts not plagiarized or copied and pasted) reasons for owning Gold (for BFI 2+2 posters who think they don't know why they should or shouldn't own gold, there are many more reasons to own gold and many reasons to not own gold or to short it but I don't want to do that list it is even more boring):

1. Central Banks are holding more gold, allowing the support for higher prices and easing of dollar reserves

2. Demand for physical bullion and coins has sky rocketed… 860% for the US Mint http://www.forbes.com/2009/11/25/gol...ties-mint.html

3. Monetizing debt in our situation will lead to dollar devaluation and higher gold prices

4. Numismatic value, I purchase many coins at about spot that have a market value beyond the value of it’s melted content (but also hold bullion)

5. Tax benefits (numismatic coins are capital gains tax free)

6. Historically gold holds it’s purchasing power well in deflation, though that doesn’t worry me

7. Demand by private citizens in emerging markets as savings increasing

8. Supply, (supposedly) if melted all the gold (that we have dug up or stolen) in the world would be a 20x20x20meter cube, and the paper used to trade gold couldn’t fit in a 20meter cube trash can

9. Very unattractive bond yields

10. You are going to buy gold at $2100+ while I’m selling it


1. Reason to short gold and look for a recovery in late February or early March,
http://stockcharts.com/scripts/php/c...XAD|B|A12,26,9 gold isn’t moving on inflationary pressure right now but the expectation and fear of inflation, it’s up in most all “major” currencies, which will take some time, seeing as much of the stimulus money deployed worldwide has been given to boost reserves of banks who, in turn, are to loan out new money based on the increased reserve and temporary stability provided by the capital injection; this will serve to delay the inflationary signs in short term prices for most asset classes imho.

Buy, buy, buy.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...KY4Wzk7g&pos=1
Bloomberg sees the central bank gold buying as bearish, but know long term it is bullish for gold.

They see it as bearish because the central banks have been known to buy high and sell low. But let me guess, buying after gold has rallied 500%, they're right this time.

Gold bugs think in time frames of thousands of years. So yes, this time they're right. In the year 3295 they will have made money.

Go sit on a 1 minute Marubozu stick, I have made very good returns on my PM holdings, do I think this will go on forever... no. I am not a "gold bug", and if you can't obviously see that your fundamental analysis must be amazing LOLLLL!

And Fnmail, I read the article, I understand Carpenter and Nguyen's reasoning here.

random thought - people say that when the masses join in, that is when it is time to get out.

it would be interesting to see a relationship between when the stock market became accessible to the masses, via the use of fund managers, etfs, investment websites etc, and the return on such investments, relative to the return prior to such opening to everyone of investing into the stock market.

i still find it surprising that in 1,000 years time people will look at the a stock market in terms of 100 year swings, yet now we view 15 years as the 'long term'.

just some thoughts

john

this is an argument against gold right now, right?

this is not a pro-gold argument at this moment

Unless ppl are are living 300 hundred years 100 year time table would be very long as a portion of capital investment.

chucky making stupid comments as usual. Buying gold now is definitely +EV.

i bought gold in the summer of 2007 at $660...

[x] made good profits in a bit over 2 years (not thousands of years)
[x] happy i didn't buy stocks instead

Article was referencing central bank's overpaying, not people who bought at a good price. Nice going, at what price did you sell?

So, the price of crude has been recently trading within a range of $70-$80. It has been priced around the lower side of that range. People were getting bullish based on this factor, thinking that since oil seemed oversold, there was a good chance that it would go up. My question is, how someone can someone expect crude to go up based on technicals? Isn't the price of crude pretty dependent on other factors besides technicals, like our nation's demand for oil or the supply of oil barrels? I'm often confused at technical plays on commodities. After the DOE oil number yesterday (slight draw), that seemed to have been the dominant factor in its surge up, not the fact that it was near support level.

1. Can you make technical plays off commodities? Or even USO and GLD?
2. How is crude oil priced? How does the market for this work? Is there an oil pit like there is a gold trading area?

funny, an actual track record of schiff recommendations is posted and they sucked, further evidence most goldbug posters have a hero that is a charlatan, pretty much no comments. gold craters for a week and this thread goes absolutely limp. if gold breaks 1200 again i'm sure we'll see a flood of "SEE I TOLD YOU SO" posts.

it's like at a poker table sometimes you get a loudmouth fish on a heater who won't shut up and is chatty and thinks he's awesome. but the second that guy busts doing something dumb he insta-leaves without even saying bye.

yes, gold at $1100 is totally busto...

Serious question.

Why don't you just put emotion aside and state your point? It is rather immature (I am sure you would agree) to get into all the name calling etc.

Why not just say your opinion and debunk the opposition if you feel the need. You can simply make your millions and be happy!

Merry Xmas.

"Gold craters" for a week...lol, the irrational USD bull market (which only looks good through technical analyzing glasses) has effected the price of gold. Otis has never tilted me but is good for a laugh (at not with) once you realize his style. State your case sir, or ramble your way to victory...

Yup, still nothing. Really, I don't think there's much discussion to be had with goldbugs anyways. It's the same stuff that Barry Goldwater and friends have been saying for 70 years and this time it's different, this time the hyperinflation's coming, because lots of dollars were printed. Buy gold, hold forever, it's the only real money, well, if people think that OK. There's a chance they are right.

My point is though that I hope you guys don't just slink away if in a year gold is back at 800. It is definitely safer in the circle-jerk echo chamber Econ forum though.

Also, since the Schiff portfolio got posted, Peter's buddy ezcartman hasn't said a peep about it.

Since 1800, if you bought $1 of several investments this how they would work out adjusted for inflation. $1 in the mattress : $0.04, all this value loss is result of deficits, money creation, since 1945. $1 in gold: $1.20, it holds up but has wild swings. $1 in stocks: >$1,000,000. $1 in bonds: >$500,000. It should be noted bonds since 1945 only protect against inflation.

We are in an extreme time though. There is no history of congress/executive branch being so inept clueless on what even causes inflation. Silver/Gold may be necessary just to put food on the table. Keynesian economics was meant to be done with balanced budgets. However, they are not even creating jobs with the deficits it is going to government workers and bankers, creating very little jobs. Keynesian, is meant to be spent on jobs directly. Cutting taxes, providing business incentives, giving government agencies more money is a failed policy that only gives money at the top and actually hurts the economy. The average federal employee now makes $70,000.

As I said before.

The government should guarantee everyone a minimum wage job. If they don't like the jobs the government provides, they can make their own job up. Maybe build a castle on government lands, or operate your own fire department. However, these jobs must be minimum wage and must be approved by a jury of your peers. NASA the military get to play on your dime, everyone should be able to at minimum wage.

Schiffs investment recommendations are scary imho. He has good ideas with oil trusts, but they are being eliminated. Energy stocks future is uncertain with photovoltaics/global warming/nuclear. Gold is a just a metal and there is no plans of any government adopting it as currency YET. Investing out of the country is not a bad idea. He predicted everything since 1998 at least.

I will vote or Schiff because unlike other congresspersons he is not scary. He is doing the right thing by cutting waste and voting no.

I will not be going anywhere. If I am wrong about Gold I will be first to hold up my hands. I haven't ever really been that keen on Gold until the start of this year. My plan is to sell at around $2500 which I believe will happen in 2010. I think having around 15% of your money in Gold is a good idea. Just my opinion.

You don't think there is much discussion to be had with gold bugs but you continue to do it...check.

Barry Goldwater=all goldbugs (fail)... check.

Hyperinflation is kind of a rarity in real discussion considering the requirements by the definition, our situation isn't that bad to warrant fears of "HYPERINFLATION"...check.

Your point is valid... check.

Your opinions of a Schiff portfolio are just that, you have what 3 statements from customers who lost money in a massive market crash, and an example of a portfolio one of his brokers may recommend. You do not have enough information to make the statements you do about his compentency as a broker (which he doesn't do for a living anymore). But I do understand the criticism of his plays, you had analyzed the one porfolio (an example of a portfolio) and had done all the math but forgot to account for dividends being paid in foreign currencies that apperciate on the dollar (fatal flaw, great job aside from that fwiw). I will not be taking sides on the issue, I have some experience with Euro Pacific Capital (more than you Otis) and yet would not assume to analyze the outcome of gains or losses of ones clients (EPC manages over 1 billion) based on a few disgruntled customers. I don't think he's a charelton or a genius. When you take sides you tend to miss everything inbetween... check.

That's not true. I did, and it didn't change the results at all so I didn't post them. The portfolio they suggested to this guy in 2007 got crushed even though OMG HE IS SO RIGHT HE CALLED EVERYTHING!!!

check out Van Eeden's analysis on the estimated value of gold based on the real money supply. I think Van Eeden knows gold better than anyone else having been with Rick Rule previously and actually understanding monetary inflation. Eedens 2007 gold call
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bHdXT...eature=related

how he gets a rough intrinsic value of gold

http://www.paulvaneeden.com/Gold

"My prior reliance on M3 to gauge changes in the money supply caused me to over-estimate inflation. The Actual Money Supply (AMS) and Actual Inflation Rate (AIR) will give us much better insight into what is happening in the economy and will also help us make better decisions about the future."

This guy almost makes Schiff a clown imo