purchasing power is not the only consideration for holding a currency

care to elaborate?

just to be clear, im not talking about the broad motives people might or might not hold currency or gold for. im just saying its a comparable metric that allows one to make the statement, "gold outperformed the dollar in terms of purchasing power". Its meaningful obviously to those who preferred to hold their cash balances in mechanisms which maximized their purchasing power.

its okay for one to say tbills or tbonds outperformed gold, but the meaning is not to slight gold at all, because of the difference in credit risk. Its just saying credit assets outperformed non credit, cash-like assets such as gold and the dollar. And in fact they performed much better against the dollar than they did versus gold, implying that a similar credit risk and premium for gold would have returned even higher results.

An argument for the gold standard without words. ^^^



A snapshot of gold's movement in the late 70's-early 80's.

Gold is up 9% this year, and has been up about 9% a year since 1971, the year Nixon said "F*** You Economics!"

If this sort of move repeats itself, depending whether you prefer price or inflation adjusted price that would take Au to a $3,000-7,000 peak.

Lets say in three weeks, the dow is under 8,000 and the euro is trading between 1.10-1.15. What does this do to the price of gold from current rates.

is that kiss bye bye to getting in under 1200 for the next couple months?

Over the past 18 months gold has shaken it correlation with the DOW from over 0.6, and now trending down toward 0.2. So that scenario is, in theory, very bullish for gold. However we do know a correction into the high 1100's is possible every step of the way, in the short term.

To be short, EUR/USD 1.10 and 8,000 DOW is one of the paths to $1300+ gold.


Spot gold passed parity with S&P in '09 and looks likely to achieve parity with the NASDAQ within the next 18 months.

That's pretty fu***** bullish.

i think gold will hold up reasonably well in this environment... but i don't think it's extremely bullish to be honest. i would expect gold to be volatile, and probably hold a lot of its current value... maybe fall back to $1050 or something like that. but we'll probably see silver trading well below $15 if the DOW goes below 8000. .... and maybe something like palladium will be around 300ish.

the most bullish scenario for gold is a collapse in the value of the US dollar... so i don't expect huge moves up in the gold market until we see extreme pressure on the value of the US dollar (or maybe even extreme deflation... but during extreme deflation, i just look for gold not to lose as much as everything else... it might go up some, but it will mainly just preserve wealth better than other assets).

Don't see many levels of resistance in this dow chart once it breaks below current levels. Obviously when the us dollar breaks down gold will do well, but that is a while down the road. Just debating on how much and when to get in with paper gold futures. Just looking for ideas of what people are trading, if any.

i think there's probably more money to be made by going short stocks, rather than long gold. so if you think there's going to be a big drop in the stock market (which i think is coming) than you should just short stocks and then buy gold when you cover your shorts.

but obviously everyone should always have some gold... so if you don't own any gold, you should obviously buy some no matter what the price is... but if you've already got your gold and you're looking to speculate, than i think the better speculation is to short stocks, bonds (not US government bonds, but bonds that are likely to default like municipal bonds) and short industrial commodities... then when things have fallen enough, then you can cover your shorts and buy whatever hard asset you are in love with (for me, i like gold, silver, palladium, etc... .but there could be lots of bargains in various sectors when prices come down and there is a lot of fear in the markets)

Cool I'll bet at no point through 12/31/11 does spot gold close above the Nasdaq. Are we on?

Sounds like a sh**** prop bet. To be clear, I meant to give it a range of 18-24, and also the DOW and gold has been head south of -0.2 not to 0.2. That being said, unless you are giving me 4:1 odds, even 24 months is not a given, something that seems likely doesn't always take place on time. I am accounting for unforeseen events to damage the nature of our funding. The timing of these events are of course, uncertain.

not that i want to get involved with prop betting (especially since I could get way better odds in the market than Yowserrrs would give anyone), but i think there's a reasonable shot that gold passes the NASDAQ before the end of 2011... if it doesn't get there by 2011, it probably will by 2012 or 2013. it could potentially even happen this year if things start getting really crazy again. We are still setting up for a wave 3 decline which is the sharpest and biggest wave down... so we can see the NASDAQ get crushed from here and i think gold will hold up reasonably well like it did in 2008. The NASDAQ could easily fall below 1000 this year... but gold may or may not be able to hold its ground in that very deflationary environment. So if we see the NASDAQ below 1000... we might see gold at $700 or something like that... so they may not quite cross for a while. But any trade where you're long gold and short stocks is going to work out very well over this next phase (and shorting NASDAQ is probably a good as thing as any to short... it shouldn't really matter too much since everything will be going down in tandem). and when you see the Fed move to monetize the debt and we see the reflation take hold, or the currency starts to collapse (look for a big sell off in the bond market, or look for the Fed in there buying bonds somehow) then you can cover your shorts and move those profits into gold... and other undervalued valuable assets.

yeah total surprise that you would back down.

yowserrrs you need to understand that this isnt a "do stuff" thread; its a "dream about stuff" thread.

is that a euphemism for ppl who at most have taken an economics course at their local community college make outlandish predictions on the US economy with little real motivation except that they got beat up in high school and have been cycnical ever since.

Seems like people are talking about buying gold as a speculative play and not a hedging play anymore. That's when you know it's peoples' agendas coming to fruition and not just portfolio diversification

You fu***** twit...lol.

http://www.cxoadvisory.com/gurus/
^^^
Take the top financial "Gurus" and look at their accuracy. Above 50% is really good. An even money prop bet, what a joke.

Most people don't want to give predictions because they don't want to be wrong. In this case I could care less about Nasdaq=Gold as an event, I am saying where the trend is headed. But you want to bet on something and have picked this one thing I have said, so I will pick one thing. So I, "probably just got beat up in high school and am cynical because of that"...ok. That is not true, so I would guess you think that you are pretty bad ass, right?

If mods can verify your identity and I will do the same. I have heard of one successful prop fight on 2+2.

If you weigh within 25lbs. of me, I will fight you MMA or Vale Tudo rules, small gloves (4oz.) or bareknuckles, 3-5 five minute rounds, cage, ring or mat. In a Las Vegas gym with fight ref, cameras and a few folks, world class escrow. $10k-20k? $25k-35k??

Are we on?



All you have done is talk in circles. Good "stuff"... lulz.

Are you out of school yet Yowserrs?

if you demonstrated to this forum some basic understanding of the facts, then maybe we could entertain you had analyzed the data without bias. unfortunately you havent and the only possible conclusion is that youre just mad at the world and get off on spreading fear and paranoia. the probable inception of these feelings were your formative years hence the high school comment.

why would i fight you? it sounds more like you need a hug.

the DOW:Gold ratio is below 8:1 now.

i think i remember that it got as low as 7:1 at one point in 2009.... but the DOW is getting pretty close to its lows measured in gold for this current decline from the 2000 highs at about 43:1

play some heads up for rollz.

this being a poker forum, i would guess you guys both play online poker... what stakes and games do you guys play? all disputes should be settled at the poker table

Would have been easier just to take the bet. He could have privately laid it off on the market if he wasn't that confident.

Looks like I missed an lowish entry point for the paper stuff. I have the real stuff as a % of my overall portfolio, so my question wasn't about if people should own gold.

Does anyone ever make trades or just talk about crap?

HU wars sound like fun, at least this is going somewhere now.

Gold making new multi-currency highs and this thread is practically devoid of any recent serious discussion?? Wow.

Interesting you see noone saying "Buy It Here". What does that say.....?

Talked to a couple friends today who both tossed out there that gold was a "bubble". Sheeeshhhh. I'm thinking, how many people do you know that even have any? Guys that have 7 fig NW's and own none.

Oh yeah but the dollar is strong.

Relative to what....and for how long?

Tough for most people to think outside their usual frame of reference I guess.


Good luck with that the next few years.

Lol, I can't describe how amazing the world is or how lucky I am. No one I have ever met would describe me as "mad"... mad at the world...lmao, I couldn't be more blessed.

"Spreading fear and paranoia"... who's scared... who's paranoid. If COMPQ:GOLD parity occurs in 10 months or 40 months... is that scary to you... if so why?

Because you approached the prop bet as if you were a wizard if i didn't take it. Lol, proving a point, I would smash your face in front of 2+2 (legally), because I know you are a useless little twit. Half of your posts were directly related to name calling, Yowssers, waste of time.


Really. Seems like a -EV avenue, unless I know I can get something off the top.

Any of the gold bulls want to deny this?

No, I would basically agree.