it is now being measured in a devalued currency?

now?

inflation has been a fact of life for a very long time. doesn't matter, stocks have done much better than gold over time even though they're measured in a "devalued currency." some stocks offer better inflation protection than others, 2 common examples being JOE (owns a ton of land in the florida panhandle) or say KO (ez to adjust prices up with inflation.)

gold just sits there. it doesn't do anything. it doesn't earn anything.

What about the levels of risk?

Gold earns you money if the price goes up. There is an increased demand nowadays due to the weakening of the dollar. What happens if China or Saudi Arabia lose faith in the US being able to pay their debts? What if the fed just carries on printing money while keeping artificially low interests (keeping the prices of real estate up)? It looks like a win win for the price of gold.

if you don't think a whole lot of this has been priced in with the recent tripling of gold, well, ok i guess

win-win. go nuts.

Every dealer is different, it really depends. i know apmex.com has a buy price posted on their website for kilos, and the spread between buy and sell is usually relatively small.

Most dealers will not hand you ~35,000 cash paper notes for a kilo bar.

If you get a check for that bar, you're leaving a paper trail, and when you go to withdraw the money out of the bank, they will of course file a suspicious persons report ( they file these on anyone taking out over 3-5k cash though, but it's something to think about )

If I get someone else who i don't mind getting caught on video camera to go buy 35 1,000$ money orders at the post office on my behalf, ( the PO of course has to file a suspicious persons report if you buy a 1,000$ money order, and they might save your picture from their video cameras ) and then you go and sell those money orders to random people on the street for 980$ each, you can sort of avoid paper trails.

Bottom line I like to deal with trusted dealers who are 100% cash and carry no sales tax no video camera or I know personally they delete the camera every few days. of course you probably want to send someone else in to sell for you on your behalf if you value your privacy anyways. Point being you will get less money on the selling end if you don't want to leave a paper trail. I'm sure you can see what I mean about hardly anyone at all being able to afford a kilo gold bar vs practically anyone could buy a 1/10 oz gold coin if they wanted to.

AFAIK, banks only report cash transactions of US$10,000 or more.

I highly highly highly disagree with you of course, as I do with pretty much everything you post. If the dollar declined 50% overnight, profits MIGHT double overnight. IE a $1 can of coke now sells for $2. A $3 gallon of gas now sells for 6 dollars.... etc etc... Some goods are of course more or less inelastic than others. Bottom line, IT DEPENDS. A federal reserve note isn't a standardized unit of value like it used to be. There is no guarantee you will be able to trade that FRN for real assets in the future. Without knowing the price of a bunch of other assets in FRNs, the price of one particular asset in FRNs is utterly useless. I would not be surprised at all if the dow went to 6,000 or 20,000 in the next few years- it all depends on how much those FRNs are worth. One dollar, as defined by law, WAS about 0.77 ounces of silver. Of course those dollars are worth 18-20$ FRNs now. Can't inflate on the silver standard. Can't print up money to pay for wars. Can't print up money for politicians/banksters. Can't print up money for SS/medicare ponzi schemes. Just no fun when real money is in play. Can't blatantly rob money from the lower / middle classes with the confiscation through inflation.

I agree with you, gold and silver aren't investments, they are real money. When the paper monopoly fiat ceases to function as "money," some other form of money will take its place. Considering gold and silver have been used as money for over 6,000 years, I think there is a good chance they will continue to hold their purchasing power. One important trait of money is that it is highly desireable, not easily produced, and A VERY GREAT STORE OF VALUE. I think the purchasing power of these metals could increase astronomically, but I don't really see them as an investment. They're just money, you're not gonna get rich holding onto them. But if you want to preserve your purchasing power against the US dollar... they are a sure bet. Metals have been in a bear market for hundreds and hundreds of years and I believe they are now in for one of the biggest bull markets in thousands of years. All of the metals are still dirt cheap right now, this is JUST THE BEGINNING of their tremendous rise.

see - a trash post like this doesn't get called out as spam even though he has probably posted 10-20 times in this thread and added exactly 0 value. I suppose he is just baiting other 'gold bugs' to get them banned, but art keeps him around b/c he's a useful tool to distract / irritate people who actually want to have a real discussion.



@entertainme - I highly highly disagree with your post, I know a lot of people who work or have worked at banks, from tellers to managers. Arguing this point with you is useless and a waste of time, but your opinion is duly noted. Also it's very easy to get a SAR filed even if you just "seem" suspicious- no matter how much or little you've taken out. Also structuring is an issue.

http://the-moneychanger.com/articles...outperform.php

This article does a reasonably good job of explaining it, here is a little snip from the article :

hortly after I wrote Silver Bonanza for Jim Blanchard in 1993 but before it had been published, Jim teased this gem out of Nobel Laureate economist Milton Friedman: “The major monetary metal in history is silver, not gold.” (I remember it well because the statement struck Jim so strongly that he had it printed up on a sticker and inserted it on the flyleaf of the original 8-1/2 by 11 version.) Friedman was right, of course. For most of mankind throughout most of history, silver has been the much more important monetary metal, familiar as the metal of daily commerce. Gold was used only for very, very large payments, which most people make only rarely, if ever.


I thought this was well worth quoting for those who missed it, I realize it can be taxing to wade through the 20 pages of spam to get to the vegetables. I'd highly recommend reading some of Milton Friedman's works, they will give you a great background and understanding.
“The major monetary metal in history is silver, not gold.”

"No State shall enter into any Treaty, Alliance, or Confederation; grant Letters of Marque and Reprisal; coin Money; emit Bills of Credit; make any Thing but gold and silver Coin a Tender in Payment of Debts; pass any Bill of Attainder, ex post facto Law, or Law impairing the Obligation of Contracts, or grant any Title of Nobility."

but, really, how can you have a discussion with a guy that says something like this:
"Metals have been in a bear market for hundreds and hundreds of years and I believe they are now in for one of the biggest bull markets in thousands of years. "

Really.

you are correct though that this is quite a prolonged bear market (the gif doesn't really do it justice because of the scale):

wow Otis, thanks for posting that graph again. That is probably the best post I've ever seen you make in your entire 2+2 posting career.

Interesting to note that the gold to silver ratio was under twenty for well over five hundred years. I wonder why ( actually I already know why lol ) the ratio is SO out of whack. What could have possibly happened to do that? Gigantic discoveries of silver? Maybe there's a silver printing press to just print up silver? It d oesn't make any sense. But history does repeat itself

you've been here for less than a month and you have 11 posts. that's not saying a lot.

i think it would be fun to do some kind of prop, but props here never happen.

i get a covestor account, you do too. in 5 years, my return will be higher than yours. super simple. i'm dumb and i'm not gonna have much commodity exposure at all, all my stuff will be in fake devalued fiat currency. ez money for you, i'm willing to wager anything reasonable from $100 to $10k, timeframe of 3 years would be ok too (but 5 is better imo.) it might not prove a ton but it'd be fun.

i'm about to hook up one of my smaller accounts to covestor anyways, so it's very little extra effort for me, with the added reward of watching you fall flat on your face.

The dow jones has been worth 1 ounce of gold on two separate occasions and 2 ounces of gold once in the last 120 years. History has a tendency to repeat itself. I'd bet in the next 5-10 years we will see the dow worth much less than an ounce of gold. If you do the math that's an average of about once every forty years.

Also interesting to note that NO fiat currency has EVER lasted much more than 45 years. Not saying there is correlation or even causation here. But it's important to remember the US dollars was theoretically backed by gold until Nixon in 71, making our currency only about 38 years old. There's no way in heck the dollar is going to make it to 45 years old- will be toilet paper long before then.

ok, then you definitely have an edge, want to do the prop as i described it?

This is one of the few times I agree with a gold bug. I think it's unfair to meassure gold against paper because that doesn't make sense.

It would be fair if you took gold at certain dates (10-20-30-40-50 years ago) and compare it against the CPI basket of those years (and if there isn't a CPI compare it to the equivalent). And measure what you would be able to buy today.

Then take those same dates and see what you would've gotten if you invested the same in the S&P 500 with dividends reinvested.

I would be very surprised if gold, on average, bought more in these time frames. My hypothesis is that gold would actually buy you less goods. And I guarantee you that the S&P 500 outperformed gold, on average, by a huge margin.

You can easily fake results on any online account imo. We will never make a bet because I only bet with real money, and I assume you only bet with federal reserve notes.

If you're willing to:
1) pick paper assets to go long on for 3+ years and NOT TRADE IN AND OUT, AT ALL, JUST buy and hold. That way every single person on this board can go monitor the bet on yahoo financials. It doesn't matter at all about covestor or any other website, we can just go check the stock tickers at any old website. Any fourth grader will be able to calculate who is winning the bet

100 shares of ibm x $50 = 5000
300 shares of GEx 40= 12000
etc etc

2) you're willing to bet at least 2,000 ounces of REAL physical silver

3) we can agree on a third partie(s) to hold said money

4) we can agree on a method to value physical metals ( ie say silver spot price is $300/oz, but no physical silver can be obtained anywhere at all for less than 1 grand an ounce, and apmex.com is offering to buy silver for 970$ per ounce. But the spot price is only 300, so silver is only "worth" 300? )


THEN please PM me so we can set up a bet, I would love to take your money. But I only want to take real money. I know we'll never set up a bet, but it's fun to dream.

LOL @ government put out CPI numbers that exclude the costs of energy, food, etc. Why not just research the price of specific commodities on specific dates and do your own research and make your own comparison.

For example, find me a time when you couldn't buy at least 5 gallons of gasoline for one ounce of silver. Sure, there may possibly be a very short period where you could not buy 5 gallons of gas for an ounce of silver due to excessive manipulation on behalf of the gov't, but they cannot keep the ratio out of whack for a long period of time. I think an ounce of silver will be able to buy much more than 5 gallons of gas once the collapse begins.

I agree the stock market has done very very very well in the past. However, the problem is, companies come and go, usually do the detriment of the little people. Playing the stock market is like playing in a rigged casino. Goldman Sachs and JPM are like phil helmuth and phil ivey ( or some good poker pros, i dont really know any, but you get my point). However ,if you have a very very long term outlook, precious metals are a no brainer.

Show me a stock that has outperformed gold over 500 or 5000 years --- you can't. Companies come and go, mergers, acquisitions, bankruptcies, etc. Gold has been money long before we were born and I guarantee you it will be money long after we are dead. Also if you're ever in a bind and have to sell stocks, you have to pay tax. No taxes with precious metals.

No, you can't fake results with covestor. They're actually wired into your brokerage account. No gaming the system possible. You don't know anything do you?

They give you nice graphs and performance tracking as well. It's a great site.

I'm not a day trader. My average holding period is over a year, but no, no "buy and hold forever." I buy pieces of companies when they're cheap and I sell them when they aren't. This is usually a good strategy.

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHH LKDHSAFLKJDSA;LKFJDSA;LKJF;LKDSAFDSAJF;LKAJSD;LKF'

Such a standard bitch move, lesson 101 in how people weasel out of these things. I suggest a friendly prop between $100 and $10k and instead you say "oh this would be great but it has to be at least $40,000 and it also has to be in silver." What the **** man am I wagering against Captain Kidd here? Shiver me timbers you are a ****.

For me it's not about money, it's about making you look stupid over a long period of time (with no effort on my part at all as this account's getting hooked up to covestor anyways.) That's why I'm willing to wager as little as $100. Hell I'm willing to wager a case of beer or even 0 the money doesn't matter.

$10k is obv fine as well but I'm not a huge fan of tying up $10k in escrow for 5 years- I'd want some way to still grow my money even as it was escrowed. That could be worked out, definitely, but obviously I'm not going to ****ing change $40k into gold doubloons for some dude with 10 posts on 2+2.

You really are a pussy.

You're in a good bug thread trying to get people to tie up their fiat monopoly money for 3-5 years??? ROFL ROFL ROFL ROFL ROFL

If liking money makes me a pussy, then I'm a pussy. I'm trying to accumulate as many ounces of silver as I possibly can. Your bet is going to cause me to lose a bunch of silver.

I don't understand WHY you won't bet in silver, but you'll bet in beer??? Sorry I only want to bet in real assets or money, and not fiat. If I was offered the chance to buy a 30 yr govt bond yielding 30% right now, but I could not sell the bond, and would not get paid any $ until the end of 30 years, I would pass in a heartbeat. Even if they offered me 100% interest, I would pass in a heartbeat. We are going to hyperinflate relatively soon. The writing in on the wall.
IE I would not trade 100 federal reserve notes NOW for 10.7 billion federal reserves notes handed to me 30 years from now. That would be a losing proposition IMO.


I considered offering to bet you 10 or 20 bottles of top shelf scotch, but the problem is
I would have to sell 50 - 100 ounces of silver t o obtain said scotch. In 5 years from now, 50 ounces of silver will easily easily easily buy 50 bottles of very top shelf scotch. So even if I win the bet against you, I still lose. Do you see what i'm saying?

I have absolutely no interest in making any bets at all in federal reserve notes, I only want to get in money. If liking money makes me a pussy, then I'm a pussy.

You're definitely going on ignore soon but I'll read a few more of your replies for comic relief.



Why don't you lend me some of your money at 10-15% interest for 10++ years? I will collateralize the loan with real assets. Can't beat that on a pretty much risk free investment. Banks are only paying 0-1% interest right now

again, i don't care about the money. i was dumb to even suggest money because that's what inevitably people that want to weasel out quibble over but i figured having some skin in the game would at least prevent you from running off/changing your name.

just admit that me saying hey whatever you pick the stakes from 100 bucks to 10k max i don't really care and you say FORTYTHOUSAND USD IN SILVER INGOTS... come on man.

that is why you're a pussy. you could just man up and say "well i don't have any money so i can't do any kind of investment prop" but nahh instead you have to make goofy demands and feign indignation. there would be easy ways to resolve this conflict, obviously, but it's not really worth my time, you wouldn't do any kind of prop ever regardless of the terms. i should know better, that's how these things work.

because you're most likely a pimply and broke 19 year old virgin, that's why.

that whole post you just made pretty much says it all, really.

Thats why I specifically said the CPI basket. Take the CPI basket of 1950, invest $1000 in silver/gold en see how much of that basket you can buy today with your gold. Do the same for the S&P 500.

And as a side note: if the CPI is fake (and thus higher) gold/silver has performed even worse against a basket of goods. If you say that the last x years inflation has been understated it actually makes gold/silver look worse.

^^^

ya... gold's a really bad investment. too bad i started buying gold at $660 .... man... what was i thinking? i should have come to this investment forum back in 2007 and maybe i would bought the S&P 500 instead.

Sigh.

My comment was about the "gold never loses it's value" myth. Not some luckboxing you did.

The more I hear about gold everywhere, commercials running 24/7 on CNBC etc.. the more I think its gonna be another Oil bubble. LOL, u remember Oil was gonna go to $200-$300 a barrel cause theres only so much of it in the world and cause Goldman said so.