Why would it be a sell the news event? The risk is actually that the merger is delayed or buggy. If it goes as planned, reduces issuance by 90%, removes the electricity component by 99% and increases staking rewards while removing risk of merger failing, that's when you want to sell?

I just said..

Macro is the worst it's ever been in BTC/ETH's history.

Is it more likely that ETH returns to ATH's in the face of >9% CPI inflation, rising rates, an official confirmation of recession, Fed balance sheet run off, forced liquidation selling from 3AC and related contagion, collapse in housing prices, and continued erosion in earnings estimates and PE multiples, or that ETH drifts back down from ~$2300 to the $1000-1200 range after rising 150% off the June lows? Network activity and TVL is down across the board. The merge narrative alone is not enough to offset reduced capital flows.

Bear market rallies are a thing. ETH rose from $370 to $800 in a month in April-May 2018 (after falling -75% from $1440) and then nuked to $80 six months later. It then rose to $330 over the next six months (June 2019) only to fall another -65% by the end of 2019 to ~$120ish.

Prices range in a bear market and this is most certainly a bear market. I don't see why this one will be any different or any reason to expect a 90' angle up and to the right ETH chart. I prefaced that "if you're looking to trade," obviously this doesn't apply if you are a long term holder as the long term fundamentals are great.

How about eth/btc though? Currently at 0.066. I thought it would get up to 0.15 before the bear market, but never got close.

When ETH's inflation rate drops below BTC and pays interest on staked ETH, we will end up past .15.

Yes, we have 9.1% inflation now, but that is the past. Look forward at the breakevens 2, 5 10 years out. Inflation expectations have all fallen below pre-invasion levels. The macro has been improving because a recession is becoming more likely and rate cuts are now being priced into bond markets for 2023.

The liquidations from voyager, celsius, 3ac etc have mostly already happened, which is why we shot to downside levels most people thought was not possible.

We are in an extremely volatile time period so it's possible we revisit and break through the lows. It's also possible the leverage has been wiped already, the fed eventually pivots and the low is already in. It's why I wouldn't overtrade and "sell the news" on a successful merger. If the merger is successful, it's going to put a long term upward pressure on the price due to the mechanics.

It depends what the price of ETH at the merge is. If it's back to $1000 then back the truck up. If it's sitting at $2500 then I think most of the merge narrative has been priced in already. It's highly unlikely that ETH will be back in the $4XXX this year -- it's spent most of the year under $3000, so if the current range is $1000 - $3000 and it approaches the top of that range around the merge then yah I think it would make sense as a trade to sell there.

I also disagree that the full scope of leverage has been wiped. 3AC, Celsius and Voyager are all just starting to enter bankruptcy proceedings. They still have huge balances of liquid and illiquid tokens -- if the courts order them to liquidate then it's a one way trip back to goblin town.

For all the chatter in 2021 about about "Zhupercycle // no bear markets ever again" this really just looks to be following a typical Bitcoin 4 year halving cycle of 2013-2017-2021 bull 2014-2018-2022 bear. Random alts are already +100% off the lows -- idk just looks like a bear market rally to me.

Psychological relief before the final syphoning

Looking at today's prices it's hard to believe now is not the time to buy, but that's a solid argument.

If the creditors have an interest in preventing a further collapse of the crypto market then they could just accept the coins instead of forcing liquidation.

Ethereum.org projecting 7% yield post merge.

The Merge
The Surge
The Verge
The Purge
The Splurge

Looks like they will be forking a POW coin. Free dividend coming.

Bloomberg: ‘Wen Flippening?’ Crypto Fans Wager on Ether Surpassing Bitcoin

Bitcoin, the world’s biggest cryptocurrency, has always reigned supreme in the land of digital assets. But now, thanks to an eye-popping surge by Ether, fans of the No. 2 token by market value are reviving predictions that it is destined to one day take over the throne.

In crypto parlance, it’s known as the “flippening” -- and it’s still likely a ways off, if it happens. Ether’s market value of around $210 billion is less than half the size of Bitcoin’s even after Ether surged 50% over the past month. And yet, believers are energized with a fresh optimism as a milestone approaches that they say will increase the chances of it happening -- perhaps sooner rather than later.

Source: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...n?srnd=premium

Arthur Hayes' latest: https://cryptohayes.medium.com/max-bidding-7a1c56c1cd07

He's giving a conservative EV from today's prices as +76%, factoring in scenarios of unsuccessful merge and no fed pivot as well. Also stating it will not be a sell the news event and the supply shock is not priced in, similar to how BTC halvings cause price to rise despite it being a known event

There's no immediate effect to a BTC halving. Every parabolic advance has coincided with 12-18 months post-halving when the supply shock really starts being felt combined with FOMO momentum. BTC was $8800 the last halving (May 2020) and $10,000 in October 2020 before the rally really kicked off and peaked in May 2021. BTC fell by 15-20% after the halving prior in July 2016.

I wouldn't expect much from ETH in the immediate aftermath of the merge either. Short term, weak macro sentiment and lack of flows will have a larger impact on price movement or lack thereof than the triple-halving ultra bullish merge narrative.

Part of the bid I imagine is sidelined money that doesn't want to long before the merge is successful. Bitcoin halvings present zero risk, so if we have a successful merger, I expect some of the sidelined money to allocate. Another difference is the magnitude of the supply shock, a 90% issuance reduction will likely show effects more quickly than a bitcoin halving. When the yield rises to 7-9%, this will incentivize more of the supply to come off the market to stake, further tightening supply.

I imagine there is a possibility of sell the news after the merger for a time period, but on a slightly longer time frame of 6 months to 18 months after a successful merge, I expect ETH to outperform most other cryptos.

Yah I'm obviously super bullish long-term, but short/medium term I don't see a return to $4000-5000 -- not until 2024-2025 is my guess. I'd rather just accumulate cheap ETH for the next few years personally. Crypto sentiment now seems just as bad if not worse than 2018, especially from the viewpoint of normies, governments/regulators, institutions, etc.

I also thought the bull market would peak with the ETH merge so what do I know -- didn't take enough profits at the end of 2021 even though I was a 4-year BTC cycle disciple.

I’m less certain about when we reach a new ath. Most of depends on the timing and magnitude of a fed pivot. Tend to think we’ve found our bottom, although we might revisit it. I don’t think we will find another set of circumstances that will lead us lower when compared to rate hikes, Luna/ust, Celsius, 3ac all blowing up. With most of the curve inverted, wide credit spreads and worsening economic conditions, I do not think fed policy gets more hawkish from here. Because of all this, I’m fully allocated, a vast majority of it in eth, plan on staking it and seeing through all of the benefits from the supply shock for at least 2-3 years.

Read this a few days ago, great article. https://blog.bitmex.com/ethpow-vs-eth2/

If anyone attempts a fork, it will either be a non-starter or a massive joke. Imo.

Agreed. Meant to be dumped asap. Hopefully there is the Roger Ver equivalent that will prop it up for a while for everyone to dump at good prices.

Fun thing to ponder is which marketcap will be higher,

ETH POW or ETC (https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/ethereum-classic)

Supposedly a Chinese ETH miner was leading the charge on that.

Most bullish event in our lifetime? I understand you guys like ETH but do you even believe hyperbole like this? Does it not give you pause that the hype train may have run off the track and maybe trigger a reevaluation of your investment?

It’s a meme. I think it is a bullish catalyst fundamentally though.