This could be semantics but I think it’d be more accurate to say “end of the bear market” in about 6 months at which point price should range for the next two years before a 2025 bull market. BTC & ETH may get a 3x from the lows a la 2019 during the consolidation phase but I wouldn’t jump the gun presuming that to be the “bull market.”

Price can do whatever it wants in the meantime and is more driven by macro factors (much to SoCal’s chagrin), but you’d be safe DCA from here and if you have a lump sum rainy day fund save that for anything in the $500-1000 range.

CoinDesk: Ether Becomes Deflationary for First Time Since the Merge: Coinbase.
https://www.coindesk.com/markets/202...erge-coinbase/

Looks like it was the exact day of the top on the ratio, damn. What a brutal stretch it's been. In the end, it took way longer than I'd thought, but it appears that we'll be hitting bargain levels for everything over the next few months, that is if we're not there already. And of all the alts, aside from ETH, SOL really seems like the safest bet for the next cycle. As for ETH, with the elimination in mining sell pressure, I would be quite surprised if we didn't see ETH finally flip BTC market cap at some point this next cycle (perhaps near the end when all crazy breaks loose again), not necessarily due to the actual deflationary aspect itself but the narrative around that aspect.

My sense is if we keep going down here, capitulation should be near, and if we do not, we still have a chance to get a nice bear rally in the midterm. Things are definitely getting interesting again and I'm spending as much free time as I can researching new projects to be ready. For now, I'm mostly looking at Metaverse and L1s, but if anyone else has something interesting, feel free to share.

for taking a loan on aave, is arbitrum more secure than matic?

Not sure why SOL would seem a safe bet when it was so heavily linked with SBF & FTX. Plus, the ecosystem will be rekt - who is going to want to buy something like SRM given that its on an L1 with contagion everywhere and its reputation in the toilet, has naff tokenomics and one of the largest holders is bankrupt and needs to be liquidated in some way?

I just bought some ETH. Am I an idiot?

Also, why has this thread been dead for 2 months?

No.

Bera market tings.

Yep, people only care to talk about it when it's going up. When no one is talking about it, it's time to accumulate.

looks like you timed entry pretty well

Total coincidence. Or I guess not...Rule is 10% BTC 10% ETH and buy moar when drops below

Where is the NFTs thread? I didn't see it. My friend just told me he bought 3 KillaBears (website is killabears.com)

Tells me he's going to ride the ponzi wave, take out initial capital, let it freeroll

Mentioning it here bc you can only buy with ETH? I don't really pay attention to the NFT stuff, or alts really...

ETA: Just wanted some commentary on killabears, maybe the NFT space in general at this point. I'm aware of CryptoPunks and BoredApes...lol

the nft thread here has been dead for a while

poker specific one https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/2...poker-1787986/
nfts in general https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/3...69/index4.html

my advice is do not buy nfts, there's a lot of scams/rug pulls out there, if you get hacked someone can just transfer them away - following nft twitter and you'll find people getting wiped of 6 figures worth of nfts all the time

some nfts may have some value, but the only people profiting on it in massive ways are the ones basically dedicating their lives to finding the next big thing before it blows up, this is not a market you can casually do well in without a ton of luck - like powerball winner kinda luck - there's a massive amount of insider info and usually by the time you hear about a project then the alpha is gone, there's tons of insider dealing, a lot of the transactions aren't suspected to be genuine but rather one whale doing transactions with himself with his hundreds of wallets to artificially hype up the price - this is very common tactic in the art world as well - ie one guy owns over 800 Warhols so he's present at every single Warhol auction and if the price is too low he'll bid it up and even end up acquiring it himself in order to ensure that warhol art keeps a high floor of value - this happens in the nft world, but the big difference is that whale holding incelslugs or whatever the "next big project" happens to be is planning on exiting once he notices that the upward trend he started has a life of its own and then once he's liquidated there's no more buying pressure and the prices all crash to zero

you also can't trust the hype trains because it's pretty standard for whales to create bots to promote and hype up their projects so it seems like everyone is all in on it

for every bored ape and crypto punk there's a thousand others which are now worth basically nothing and those all had thousands of tweets and discord channels talking about it becoming a massive way to easily get rich

real thing is don't buy it unless you're totally fine spending 5k on a jpeg that you may not be able to ever sell again

also, it'll cost a ton to get involved, gas fees moving eth to the wallet, gas fees spending the eth on the nft, gas fees moving the nft to another location, fees deducted from your later sale to both the nft artist and the sales platform - there's no quick slices of 10% profits it's either homerun swings or busto with all the fees invovled

Killa bears are expensive now. If he bought recently he probably spent 10+ eth on the 3.

Like 10 months ago I owned 20 of them but they kinda floundered and I sold them off. I flipped a rare one for an eth of profit while on vacation.

Now that 20 would be worth 100 eth or so.

Anyways, afaik they are just a really strong community. Doesn't seem like the project is doing anything special or particularly noteworthy.

Nice thread

I’m 78% btc, 22% eth

Was 50/50 probably until November 2022

at least you're 100% crypto, which is #winning

Even my stock portfolio is very heavy in COIN and MSTR (among other crypto adjacent stocks)

This is the gwei

I'm slightly more bullish on ETH than before. In the past, had a complete beginner asked me for advice, I would have said own 100% BTC or if you really feel like it, 20-25% ETH + 75-80% BTC.

Now I'd recommend more along the lines of 50-70% BTC, 30-50% ETH.

There's a bunch of reasons that I feel this way but the biggest one is the insane amount of development that continues to circle exclusively around ETH. It's creating an absurd technical moat in addition to it's financial / network effects based one.

Bitcoin has it's strength in name recognition and predictability.

ETH, meanwhile, has all of the cool edgy tech that seems to really be going interesting places that perhaps Bitcoin can never have at this rate.

Furthermore, there's been a risk-free rate of ETH over BTC. Presently that's around 7%. So to own BTC, you need to consistently beat ETH by 7%/year just to breakeven. Extremely possible in this environment, but it's another factor to keep in mind. I think long term this trajectory is estimated to level out at around 4%/year around the year 2026 is what was leaked from the EF.

I'm turbo mega bullish on eth. Been accooooomin since November

i'm too stupid to understand the risk free rate, can you explain that to me please?

Staking?

Yeah, staking. Currently it's 7.3%. But it changes. Will likely increase in March-June, then likely decline from there for years until it reaches some equilibrium, expected to be around 4%. But you just earn this rate at no risk if you self-custody. No DeFi risk, nothing, straight risk free return based in ETH.

There's a couple other major points I could mention.

#1 is that ETH's long-term game is already solved, assuming the technology doesn't break, which is possible, because it's becoming quite complex. The stake/burn mechanism based on TXs already runs. Meanwhile with Bitcoin, how do miners get paid in the future? There's a huge long term security sustainability concern here. TX fees simply can't support a market worth $10T+ in the future remotely efficiently by almost any calculation. If you had tail emissions you break the 21m model. If you switch to POS you break the POW model. Both are presently hard do not cross lines.

#2 ETH is net deflationary right now since the merge, meanwhile Bitcoin is still increasing supply in meaningful capacity for quite some time.

Again, I'm not a Bitcoin hater, I still think it's one of the best assets in the world to own, but if one is being intellectually honest, ETH does have a lot to say for it presently.

ty

any places you'd rec to stake, i'm getting like 4% where I'm doing it

I self-host. You can use allnodes. I don't know about the custodial services really. There's Lido and Rocketpool as well.

Do you have any thoughts on FRAX?

Bullish even though I don't have any