My employer has allowed 98% of employees to work from home for 4 weeks now (>400 employees). It's a business that can handle it, though. Presence needed at office is minimum.

I also imagine that even when things open up, businesses who can let people work from home will be asked to continue do so for a longer period.

Fwiw my colleagues with kids have said that some weeks it's like a living hell, some weeks it's not a big deal.

During meeting calls often kids can be heard on the background etc, but obv doesn't matter given the circumstances.

Wow. So many absurd takes. If nothing else this discussion makes it obvious who has children and who has never really even thought about what it takes to have children.

All I can say is this. We better hope heat/UV significantly statistically impacts the R0 of this virus. Americans and there stupid behavior may be spared by a factor of luck.

Supposedly they are open from 6am -11am and from 5pm-8pm with no congregating. I wonder if there are people out enforcing it

Beaches are close to zero transmission, it's a no brainer to open them.

Iceland has had 1 Covid death in the last week I am pretty sure. One week ago I looked and it was 8 and now it is 9, and still at 0.5% IFR. I calculated and if no more cases (which is pretty close to where they are) 6% of remaining cases would have to die for them to reach a 2% death rate, which seems unlikely.

Obviously we will need to see the age breakdown at some point and see if this is explained by the case age shifting young compared to pretty much everywhere else. But it will be interesting if Iceland clears the disease and stays under 1% IFR, which seems very possible at this point, especially if/when they start doing antibody testing and we can get a feel for their actual infection rate. Even with their aggressive per capita testing, they are surely missing some cases.

I'm just observing that those without kids or one of a two parent family could return to work. And that that is is a lot of people who can return even though some cannot because they have to look after kids. The responses all seem about leaving kids unattended for some reason.

It sounds like an an awful idea at the moment but apart from the all the dying bit it would make sense for a first stage.

I heard a news report a few days ago here in San Diego that police, up until now, have been issuing warnings to people out and about for no good reason, but now they're starting to give out tickets. A woman was given a ticket for walking with her 2 year old son on a sidewalk by the beach and another couple was supposedly given a ticket for sitting together in their car, with the windows up, watching the sunset.

The fine is "up to $1000" but no mention of whether it can be lower than that.

Standard across Europe. Fines vary from €100 to €300 from what I've heard.

It was a factual statement, not a take. Some countries are going to do [x] does not mean I think it is a good or bad idea.

They are requesting input for the new version of Twoplustwo on the Vanilla software again, if you want to give your input the thread is here:
https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/5...forum-1766061/

In So Cal these kind of fines are used as revenue generators moreso than any attempt to maintain rule of law. For example, there could be a couple homeless people doing heroine and having sex in an alley and that police cruiser would roll right on by them without slowing down on their way to give a $1000 ticket to the couple sitting in their $40,000 car minding their own business.

Police starting to issue these petty bullshit tickets probably has more to do with overall ticket revenue (which is a major source of city revenues) being way down and the cities having mandates to make up the difference.

Trump just said China has more corona deaths than USA.

Those mentioning Iceland, it's not at all interesting, a very young average age of 36 AND the young getting it first as travelers and workers besides = you'd expect around 0.5%. Will probably end up around 1%. "0.5%" Korea now sits at 2.16% and climbing still.

Meanwhile you have 35 of 600 hospitalized from that French military ship alone - with more to come - shows just how high hospitalization-required rates are among a younger fitter cohort.

Diamond Princess has new data and it's still ticking up, with 13 deaths now and 7 left in critical (I assume long term on respirators). It's at 1.85% death rate.

Germany, which some were touting as "having great health care" now sits at >3%, and still isn't on the peak of its death curve, while still undercounting deaths. They've tested fully 2% of their population with a <10% hit rate among those deliberately tested (hence mostly symptomatic). We can confidently say that the antibody results are bullshit from that.

Italy has a 13% death rate with only a 13% positive test rate on people tests. Real deaths are probably 26% going by the known death undercounting in various hard hit provinces, which have an anomaly 4x larger than official covid. If we take the 13% positive on tests as an upper bound on infected (it's a certainty that this is larger than the randomly sampled population infection rate, most likely many multiples larger), and deaths yet to go, we end up with an absolute lower bound on our IFR of >1% and likely multiples of that.

IMO the 0.1%-0.4% death rates that some are projecting, or the claim that it's gone through 30% of the population, are pure fantasy.

His post isn't absurd. It might not be fair, or popular, but a lot of compromises are going to have to be made. Expecting those who can keep their kids at home, while working from home, to do so makes perfect sense as first steps toward reopening.

Opening child care only to those people who are essential, and can't work from home, also makes perfect sense as one of the first steps.

Since this is the BFI forum I want to state for posterity sake I sold into cash at the Tuesday close; SP500 2846.

Previously I was an 80/20 passive investor. Bought all the way down. Went 85/15 at -10%, 90/10 at -20%, 95/5 at -30% road the wave back up and capitulated on Tuesday April 14th at 3:50pm. Fidelity tells me my YTD return is -10.00%.

Can we have any discussion regarding investing here? This wave up is just pushing through all resistance. Something something about 61.8% retracement coming up at SPY 293.

So what does phase 1 wave 2 look like? We have some China info. Guessing companies that send employees back to get infected will be getting sued and they don’t want that, so doubt many will force workforce back.

I'm sure you're right to an extent (tickets being issued for revenue generation) but it's not because there are fewer drivers on the road to issue violations to. There are still more than enough cars on the road for the police to issue as many citations as they like. If anything the potential number of citations has increased since the reduction in congestion has increased the average speed of the freeways.

I think they are starting to issue these stay-at-home citations to make a point and the added revenue is just a bonus.

I can't speak for wherever you are from, but as good as something along these lines sounds in theory to you, in USA#160 if you think protests and civil disobedience are bad now, I guarantee if any governor tried to pull some move where the government decides some kids get to go to school and some don't, civil unrest is going to increase about x1000. I think there would be a real revolt with bullets flying in the streets.

If the economy significantly reopens without schools opening, so parents with children can't go back to work, this is gonna cause problems as it is. But the blowback from the solution you guys are advocating would be way worse.

So if you're fortunate enough to have kept your job, you're allowed to work from home (which implies a higher than average salary), and you made the decision to birth some little crumb grinding germ factories, you think those same people are going to revolt in the streets w/ guns and violence?


Who's going to watch the children while you're out shooting **** up?

What kind of an ******* bitches about having to spend time with the children they chose to have, all while continuing to be paid in the middle of a ****ing once in a lifetime pandemic that is going to bankrupt those less fortunate than you.

Absolutely. Like I said, it would appear you live a very sheltered life and don't have a very good grasp of reality, especially as it pertains to raising children. I predict no place in the US at least, and possible no place in the world, would adapt such a measure, because the pushback would be immense.

I guess we will find out soon enough.

Well for now they are in limbo. If the job will not exist exist in the future because their employer is going to go out of business then the point is moot. But for people whose job would exist in the future but because they can't work from home and can't go back to work for potentially months because they have a child stuck at home, maybe their job goes to someone else who can work. That ought to go over well...

3 scenarios:

1. A single parent and essential health care provider.

2. A parent/parents, with an essential job, or a job that can not be performed from home.

3. A parent/ parents who are able to work from home, and keep their children home.


In this scenario schools are allowed to begin reopening partially but can't reopen to 100% immediately. Is it your position that 1, 2 & 3 should all have equal opportunity to be the first to send their children back to school?



What kind of ******* wants to be the first to send their children back to school if they don't have to?

Were you one of the people hyperventilating about the Spring Breakers too? Where is the outbreak from that....?