.

My comment was based on population adjustment with our numbers here in NZ vs Australia they have a 5x higher hospitalisation rate than we do so my asumption is as I said. Perhaps this is an apples to oranges comparison.


I'm not arguing dates at all, countries were not testing prior to Feb1 on the scale that china was so of course thats what the numbers would indicate.

Without controls in place (social distancing, isolation, limit travel etc.) It only takes a couple of cases to gain a foothold in a new location. I said with 'hindsight' - how can you deny that if all countires closed boarders to all other countries it would not have prevented a number of more isolated countries from having no cases at all and in turn deaths.

No need to be a dick - obviously WHO made mistakes early on. Everyone knows China state run media push there own narative whether it is factual or not. Seems a bit naive to know all this, still stick your head in the sand, throw tantrums, endanger your own population more that they already are and promote untested drugs I mean the list goes on...

median R0 value of 5.7

we (australia) were swift on the china ban, but delayed banning italy for weeks to make sure their racing teams were able to make it in time for GP Melbourne on march 15 (lol), a massive public event which was only saved from taking place at the last minute by some of the competing teams testing positive.

our lockdown isn't especially severe - grocery stores are packed for example, and hardly anyone wears masks. schools are still open, though most kids stay home.

it does seem very likely that weather is a meaningful factor because the difference in australia's response to other first world country's responses is nowhere near proportional to the difference in outcomes (so far).

it'll be interesting to see what happens going forward here when the weather turns, as we're not culturally very well placed for the masks + surveilance aspects of the post-lockdown phase, and we'll be coming out of an extremely successful first wave.

It seems pretty obvious that Australia will be infection free soon enough or close enough to that that it can be handled like Taiwan or Korea.

There's no way to explain the discrepancy except weather. It's a lock that weather greatly reduces transmission rates at this point, just like the flu.

Florida also doesn’t seem nearly as bad as it should be given how long it has taken to do what other states did much more quickly. So weather must be some factor but doesn’t appear to stop the spread as much as perhaps hoped for ?

..........................




good ole boys in Michigan with big guns protest Michigan stay at home order






https://www.npr.org/sections/coronav...ic-jam-protest

Any of the math guys have a guess as to how many cases America has actually had? There have been ~650,000 confirmed cases, how many unconfirmed cases have there been? I know the antibody test will be telling for this question, but there must be some way to model this?

Isn't Michigan supposed to be one of the smarter states too?

If the number of tests is growing and the number of new cases is peaking or slowing, it's good news. Otherwise the explanation is rather obvious.

According to this website, testing plateaued on 30 March

https://covidtracking.com/data/state/florida

For the US, tests plateaued about a week ago.

Open the economy you cannot with this approach.


Overall

In fact this protests confirm it as loud minorities are first to rebel.

they have some nice parts but it is also well known to have a lot private militias - and i'd take the over a few of those guys are in a few

also has flint and detroit, two places you can buy a house for less than the cost of a car because they are basically in unlivable regions nobody will even buy them on spec

That can't be, as that would shatter the preconceived notions in my head regarding the MSM, who obviously wouldn't ever run stories critical of China!

Data out of the Netherlands has found that 3 percent of samples from a blood bank tested positive for covid-19 antibodies.

This would mean that actual infections are 15x reported infections. The big question is whether blood donors would be more or less likely to be exposed than the general population.

Also saw some interesting data that half of all Europe's deaths are from nursing homes.

https://twitter.com/ElonBachman/stat...45852202749954

Not sure how accurate this is, but if it is true, it seems like there is a pretty easy way to cut down on deaths.

Also the latest euro momo data is showing a drop in deaths this week. It could be due to Easter and a lag in reporting, but it does seem to jibe with what the daily data has been showing. It also seems to conform with previous flu data, which would make sense if this is seasonal as it appears to be.

http://euromomo.eu/bulletin_pdf/2020...5_bulletin.pdf

And what way is that?

Nursing homes have been under strict quarantine in Europe for a long time.

In Belgium no visitors have been allowed in nursing homes for more than a month, only employees. They are still getting infected & dying.

I would think that screening employees for possible infection, even the ones who don't show symptoms, would be a pretty good first step.

If this virus is seasonal, it seems like there will be a period of several months for the relevant agencies to develop comprehensive plans to protect people living in nursing homes, which would have a pretty big impact on the overall number of deaths in the future.

As we learn more about it, I should be easier to protect the people who are most at risk.

Does Australia have a culture of crowded, high density public transport? My assumption is no, but I really don't know.

Looking at NY and some other metro areas vs the rest of the US, high density public transport really does seem like it could be a big piece of the puzzle too. I live in California where it has actually been cold and rainy the last month or so, so it seems weather isn't part of the equation here why our outcome (so far) has been so much better than NY, despite obviously a lot of travel from Europe and China.

^^ Also springbreak travellers

Netherlands has 0.02% population level death rate, 0.04% by the time it all plays out (maybe more if it has uncounted death like the 4x official covid death anomaly in Bergamo).

With 0.04% death rate at a 3% infection rate, that's 1.3% population death rate - without hospitals overwhelming. Far too high to reopen/let it run through the population.

Already at 33k and deaths rising instead of going down as the model predicted so it needs a revision.

Interesting sample to study: 1/3 of the crew has it.
Inquiry after 668 of French aircraft carrier's crew catch coronavirus

^That's a very interesting sample:
31 young fit men of 600 are hospitalized by this. That's a 5% hospitalization rate among young fit people with few comorbidities with many more to come (most were only recently infected).

You might be right but we should not automatically assume they are young and fit. The ones in the hospital might be the older ones who have been in the military 25 years and have hypertension, etc.

The military has unhealthy people too, just mostly not as serious medical conditions and not as fat overall as the general public. Same with the general population of police officers.

Seems pretty consistent with this, with probably some subjectivity over the criteria for "requiring hospitalization"

IFR for 60+ looks way too low, really?

I don't know about the military, but I have seen plenty of studies that indicate police officers have significantly shorter life expectancies than matched control populations, presumably due to chronic health conditions brought on by workplace stress.

Due to this, all else being equal, I would expect a police officer to have a poorer prognosis on average than the population at large following COVID infection. Whether this extends to military I don't know.