Coronavirus - Page 223 - Business, Finances and Investing Forum

Lilu why do you have such a rage boner for tooth? You should thank him for giving you an apparent reason to live.

I'm going back to lurking now since I have no data to contribute. I suggest many of you do the same

04-25-2020 , 07:15 AM

#5552

piepounder

old hand

Join Date: Sep 2012 Posts: 1,557

Quote:

Originally Posted by Biesterfield

Not saying this isnt the best approach but how would you stop young people interacting with old people - people who live with their grandparents or the bolded?

If young people live with seniors they would have to stay home or find temporary living arrangements with friends. There's lots of empty hotel accommodations. They could put young people that are working up in hotels. They could put some old folks in motels / cottage properties if they don't have other arrangements.

04-25-2020 , 07:43 AM

#5553

bbfg

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Aug 2009 Posts: 12,264

Quote:

Originally Posted by piepounder

Quote:

Originally Posted by piepounder

pretty sure the right strat is extreme lockdown of seniors. give them free food and delivery services / priority health services. colocate workers of long term care homes and lock them down too. bring in trailers or put them in a hotel who cares. dont let them mix with the general population

let the under 50 go about their business and advise them to take precautions. Let them serve the old folks.

the 50-65 crowd. Go out when necessary for groceries/pharmacy runs, work from home, give them income supports for a bit if they cant work remotely

20% immunity for under 50 yo's plus some basic social distancing might not be herd immunity, but it would slow it a lot. Otherwise, it doesnt seem to matter how long the lockdown runs...it will take hold to a population with no immunity eventually.

oh wand wear masks in all indoor public spaces. how hard is that for 10 minutes

I think you are vastly underestimating how many people take care of seniors to help them out. Isolating all those people is crazy. These are tens of thousands of people per million inhabitants, and these people also have significant others & children. What do you do with all those people? The majority of seniors need more care than just dropping off food in front of the door.

I think you are also vastly underestimating the willingness of young people to go back to BAU and go for herd immunity. Like Tooth said: you first.

Sure the government can force people to go back to work by not providing support, but it seems very early to make this type of move and to basicly force the people you serve to go and take a risk to have major health problems or die. And forcing people to consume is a lot harder. People their behavior will change significantly as long as this thing is ravaging the world & the economy.

The whole idea of current measures is to leave the herd immunity & mass excess unnecessary death as the final plan. Why should we not try out other stuff first?

04-25-2020 , 08:11 AM

#5554

despacito

old hand

Join Date: Nov 2018 Posts: 1,369

A Third Solution
https://paulbuchheit.blogspot.com/?m=1

Quote:

The current consensus is that only a vaccine or highly effective treatment will end the threat posed by COVID-19. Unfortunately, developing a drug or vaccine and then proving that it is safe for widespread use is likely to take many months, if not years.

However, there is a third solution that could be implemented this year: Ubiquitous daily screening.

The virus only persists because we are unable to stop it from spreading. If we were able to identify and quarantine everyone who is contagious, including those who are asymptomatic, then we could let everyone else out of lockdown and resume ordinary social and economic activity.

Even with imperfect screening, if we are able to prevent 90% of disease transmission, then the virus’s reproductive number, or R0, will drop below one and the pandemic will quickly fade. There is no risk of reintroduction from the outside because any new outbreaks will quickly be caught and contained. If used consistently, there will be no second wave, ever.

This approach is generally considered impractical because the current medical testing technology, based on RT-PCR, is slow, expensive, unpleasant, and in short supply.

Therefore, we require a better technology, one capable of providing a test that is fast, easy, and abundant. I’ve found several possible answers. The most proven and ready to scale technology is based on surface plasmon resonance. It’s able to detect even a very small number of viral particles, which is very important because we want to detect everyone who is contagious. Waiting for symptoms such as a fever or antibodies is too slow to stop the spread. This is not a new technology — it has been used to detect viruses for many years. What’s new is that this team developed a way to build a very sensitive test that can be mass produced at low cost (less than $1/test).

This test gives results in ten minutes using a small amount of saliva which is taken into a disposable tube and then run through a scanner. If no virus is detected, then you’re not contagious. If the virus is detected, or the results are ambiguous, then you can take steps to avoid spreading the virus (such as wearing a mask and staying home) and will be referred to a doctor to receive appropriate care.

With this test, we can screen for the virus at the entrances to buildings and other areas, much like we currently use metal detectors to screen for weapons. Many places are already using thermometers to screen for infection, but unfortunately that is not good enough because not everyone who is contagious has a fever. I expect the virus screen will initially be deployed at essential locations such as hospitals, warehouses, and factories. Longer term, it can be used to safely reopen more crowded areas such as festivals, sporting events, and even Disneyland.

We’re planning to start operating the first scanner within a month. It's a fully automated system, similar to a kiosk or turnstile. If all goes well, there will be millions of scanners deployed by this fall, ensuring that every school and essential business can reopen while remaining safe and virus-free. Without regular virus screening, there is a significant risk of children catching the disease at school and then bringing it home to more vulnerable family members. Kids shouldn’t have to fear that by going to school they are going to accidentally kill grandma, or put a parent in the hospital.

My goal for the year 2020 is to wipe out COVID-19. That sounds unrealistic, but once we have demonstrated that viral screening is possible and effective, I believe that the benefits of this approach will become overwhelmingly obvious and institutions around the world will rush to embrace this solution.

This is a startup effort, so our success is far from guaranteed. This is why I want to raise awareness of this strategy, of this third solution to ending the pandemic. I want more people thinking about, working on, and demanding that this happen. I’m very optimistic about our effort, but it should not be the only effort. The stakes are too high to gamble our future on any one team or strategy. I’m personally supporting teams working on three different virus screening technologies (in addition to better antivirals and better vaccines). In a pandemic, it’s better to have too many solutions than not enough.

We must never again allow a pandemic to threaten our health and disrupt our society. With the ability to screen for multiple viruses, we can not only end this pandemic, but also prevent the next. We could even eliminate the cold and flu (both of which have a lower R0, and are therefore more easily stopped). This will save millions of lives and trillions of dollars.

It’s easy to fall into dystopian visions of the future — a world shut down by one virus after another, where people are afraid to gather together, afraid to travel, afraid to be physically close even to those they love.

It doesn’t have to be that way. We can emerge from this pandemic better and stronger and healthier than ever. We can forever put an end to lockdowns and social distancing. Ubiquitous screening is the key.

04-25-2020 , 09:42 AM

#5555

f-l-y

enthusiast

Join Date: Sep 2018 Posts: 61

Quote:

Originally Posted by f-l-y

Quick follow up on this. My fiance, who before covid was working 90-110 hours per week, has been sent home 4 of the past 5 days due to overstaffing.

It's interesting, typical accidents leading to ICU (car crash, gunshots, work accidents) have declined to near zero as the city is under stay-at-home orders.

That, coupled with a pause on elective surgeries and a (much, much) lower than expected covid patient count means medical workers are being sent home or forced to take vacation time. Obviously a great problem to have compared to the alternatives.

What's funny though, city/county public officials keep insisting case growth is "two weeks behind NY" despite the fact that we shut down a few days days before NY.

And here we are. As expected, we're far ahead of the expert consensus of being far behind NY. Locally we're actually (rightly) guiding towards masks for the next ~30 days.

It's been 85+ and humid for 2 weeks now here

https://harriscounty.maps.arcgis.com...5efcb7c07c6914

04-25-2020 , 10:15 AM

#5556

PokerHero77

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Oct 2008 Posts: 5,977

Quote:

Originally Posted by ToothSayer

I think you meant to say "yes"?

115,000/2300 = 50x spread in the estimate of infected
2300/430 = 5x, not 7x

The sewage studies have provided zero new information about IFR (everyone agrees on a 5x undercount at least) because the spreads are so wide and there's no reference data about the sewage load:infected rate ratio. It's worthless data so far.

So is it not disingenious to assume the lowest of the range to prove your point?

Of course the range is wide, there is no baseline. Over time the range should narrow. Ignoring an easily observed metric with close to zero sampling bias is not smart.

That's why "no".

04-25-2020 , 11:01 AM

#5557

AnotherMakiavelli

old hand

Join Date: Apr 2013 Posts: 1,451

Quote:

Originally Posted by ToothSayer

Depends. If you're talking about some suburbs of Chicago then maybe. Low IQ + low social conscience is not a good thing for compliance.

For other developed countries, it's certainly achievable. The best way is by decentralized rule enforcing. I posted about how it needs to be done a month ago. It's doable even in low IQ, low social conscience populations. It's quite easy in more civilized, intelligent populations.

Funny that some are even mentioning IQ in here. Actually there is different forms of IQ, at least in the modern world. If googling for "trump voter iq" you will find a lot of articles.

Pacific Standard: Trump's Appeal to the Cognitively Challenged

The Atlantic: America Is Divided by Education

Good: People with low emotional intelligence are more likely to vote Republican, new study claims

Here is something positive for you, at least some sort of IQ (congrats!):
Reason: Trump Supporters Score Higher on Verbal Ability Tests

National Review: ‘Trump’s Appeal to the Cognitively Challenged’

Medium: What’s the average IQ of Trump voters?

I am actually not very surprised by that. What do you expect from folks supporting someone suggesting to inject disinfectant or UV light, some fake news that was pushed in far right wing/conspiracy circles on Facebook, coincidentally a few days before the now famous press conference for example.

Bonus:

More bonus:

Spoiler:

04-25-2020 , 11:16 AM

#5558

O.A.F.K.1.1

Ted Patrick

Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 27,952

Lets compare Sweden to the three countries from which you can drive directly into it from.

Finland DPM:34

Norway DPM:37

Denmark DPM:72

Sweden DPM:217

So Sweden has more DPM than those 3 countries combined.

04-25-2020 , 11:29 AM

#5559

bbfg

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Aug 2009 Posts: 12,264

Quote:

Originally Posted by O.A.F.K.1.1

I think after this 1st wave it will look something like this:
Average of Finland/Norway/Denmark: <90
Sweden: >450

04-25-2020 , 11:37 AM

#5560

AnotherMakiavelli

old hand

Join Date: Apr 2013 Posts: 1,451

Interesting theory:

WP: Trump wants us to inject bleach? He must have overdosed on hydroxychloroquine.

Quote:

...He has concluded, therefore, based on his study population (N=1), that the drugs prevent coronavirus 100 percent of the time....

04-25-2020 , 12:19 PM

#5561

RuthSlayer

banned

Join Date: Mar 2020 Posts: 246

ToothSayer making his thread great again!

Thanks dispacito for posting. Those succinct posts where you synthesizing tons of info into a few sentences with a source link instead of copy/pasting the entire ****ing paper really helps move our conversation forward(it literally does move us forward because it takes up half a page lol). This is how you do it son:

To the IQ chatter.

Quote:

Highlights
A potential association between a hyperbrain (high IQ) and a hyperbody was examined.
Those with high IQ had higher risk for psychological disorders (RR 1.20 - 223.08).
High IQ was associated with higher risk for physiological diseases (RR 1.84 - 4.33).
Findings lend substantial support to a hyper brain/hyper body theory.
https://www.sciencedirect.com/scienc...60289616303324

3.5x more likely to have anxiety disorders, 4x more likely to have environmental allergies, 2x more likely to have asthma, 2x more likely to have autoimmune diseases.

hyperawareness from having these conditions, not IQ, responsible for their lower infection rate?

04-25-2020 , 12:45 PM

#5562

bbfg

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Aug 2009 Posts: 12,264

I don't think this was posted or discussed ITT?

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-52324218

Excess deaths spiked immensely in Ecuador with >7000 excess deaths and less than 500 reported corona deaths.

Ecuador population is 17 million so 7000 corona deaths would translate to 411/million.

Thoughts? Exception in the region due to its ties with Spain?

04-25-2020 , 12:58 PM

#5563

rickroll

temp-banned

Join Date: Aug 2011 Posts: 25,797

Quote:

Originally Posted by bbfg

i think this was mentioned in the other thread

cliffs is very close ties to spain and they fled and brought it back so feasibly got hit a lot harder than other latin american countries

not much testing available either, a few weeks back there were reports about them stacking bodies in the street because they ran out of room in Guayaquil which is a coastal city right on the equator so very hot there with lots of sunlight

also looking at lists of prominent people who died on wikipedia there's quite a few africans with wikipedia entries who died of covid so that implies it's also running through parts of africa very hard as well albeit like ecuador much more silently due to lack of medical infrastructure to test and report

04-25-2020 , 01:11 PM

#5564

ChipRick

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Sep 2007 Posts: 4,185

Quote:

Originally Posted by nutella virus

Lilu why do you have such a rage boner for tooth? You should thank him for giving you an apparent reason to live.

I'm going back to lurking now since I have no data to contribute. I suggest many of you do the same

Sounds like something Tooth should try...

04-25-2020 , 02:23 PM

#5565

RikaKazak

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2005 Posts: 9,663

TL;DR: How can I improve my lung function and capacity due to the damage I received from having Covid-19?

Long version: I did NOT test positive for coronavirus, but I'm pretty sure I had it. Feel free to read my earlier posts in this thread if you're wondering why I believe that.

So an update on my situation. My 7 year old daughter is 100% fine, has no lingering issues, and feels terrific. My 36 year old wife, feels 100% except for a very minor/small decrease in lung capacity which she attributed to not working out for 6 weeks while she was sick.

My situation isn't as good though. While I no longer cough, don't have fatigue, no more blowing my nose non stop, I have noticed a significant decrease in lung capacity/function.

Before I got covid-19 I was running 12.5 miles per day to train for a half ironman that I had registered for. 12.5 miles was pretty easy, and not that big of a deal. In retrospect, I was over training and going too hard, I should of had rest days, but I'm just sharing this information so you know how much better shape I was in compared to the average american. I'm also 36, have never smoked, only drink 3-4 times a year, and have never done drugs, never any health issues, and trained jujitsu twice a week. Pre covid I was super healthy. I don't even eat sugar and rarely eat process foods (I haven't gone "out to eat" in over a year because the food is so unhealthy where I live in nowhere Idaho...I don't even use ketchup or other sauces because it's filled with sugar and other crap)

Now however I can't even go 2 minutes sitting in a chair, doing nothing, without having to take an intentional DEEP breathe. And when I do take that deep my lung feel like they're extremely constricted. Also in my family, I was the one to have the worst symptoms from covid-19 BY FAR! I was bed ridden for 3 days and during those 3 days I was coughing up blood. (sick for a total of 5.5 weeks)

So my question to you guys is, I've obviously been googling this non stop. But before I just start doing the "main stream advice," I was hoping to get your guys' advice. Last time I did what google recommended I took Ibuprofen with NSAIDs and made my situation way worse, lol. So at least I'm learning from my mistakes.

Advice would be appreciated

Thanks in advance!

04-25-2020 , 02:46 PM

#5566

rickroll

temp-banned

Join Date: Aug 2011 Posts: 25,797

rika, i'm obviously not a doctor but i have the form of asthma that is weather/exercise induced and never have standard attacks but would get a seasonal cough that would keep me up at night etc - normal inhalers pretty useless for me

about a decade ago or so they came out with something called advair which is part steroid and some other stuff that just frees up the lungs https://www.advair.com/how-to-use-advair.html

you need a prescription for it in america, but possible a doctor may give one for you and you could try it - another route is buy on grey market internet in a country where there is no prescription and give it a whirl that way

very possibly no help as i have no understanding of your situation and how it relates to asthma but this thing is a game changer and could possibly treat your symptoms at least

04-25-2020 , 02:58 PM

#5567

TheNonPareil

veteran

Join Date: Oct 2012 Posts: 2,035

Can anyone give a rough idea of where we currently stand?

Basically what are we predicting happens over the course of the next few months and how does that compare with what the general public thinks is going to happen?

Are you guys optimistic or pessimistic? I feel like I have no idea where we stand anymore.

Thanks.

04-25-2020 , 03:11 PM

#5568

joe6pack

banned

Join Date: Sep 2019 Posts: 1,907

RikaKazak

When you say google recommended ibuprofen, in what way?

I'm curious because it has been well known for some time that nsaids can make covid worse.

04-25-2020 , 04:18 PM

#5569

AnotherMakiavelli

old hand

Join Date: Apr 2013 Posts: 1,451

Quote:

Originally Posted by joe6pack

RikaKazak

When you say google recommended ibuprofen, in what way?

I'm curious because it has been well known for some time that nsaids can make covid worse.

Any credible sources for this "well known" information?

Coronavirus and ibuprofen: Separating fact from fiction

04-25-2020 , 04:20 PM

#5570

"88k"

grinder

Join Date: Aug 2009 Posts: 447

Quote:

Originally Posted by ToothSayer

I've looked at them time and time again and never pulled the trigger on them, because you can always make the bet more profitably other ways (like SPY or inflated stock puts). Since VIX options are essentially options on futures contracts (and not spot VIX), you can run into some weird issues where pricing is way off what you'd expect because of major contango/backwardation.

I would personally express your thesis differently - if you think the market will drop 30%, then just straight bet on that rather than trying to get clever on volatility. Your principle must be very bearish if he thinks it's likely to drop that much so why doesn't he sell a wide call spread and buy puts? Structure it for the same loss (100%) if he's very wrong (market ATH), a nice chunk of sold-call profit if the market goes down by end of year from here, and a 3 bagger or so if he's very right.

There are economic recession scenarios where his VIX calls won't pay but SPY will go down 30% (slow bleed rather than fear). Definitely want to avoid that tiltmonkey scenario; in general don't be clever and just bet on the event you're predicting will happen.

Tyvm for the thoughtful reply TS. I think he was thinking of it more as a "hedge" for 1-2% of his overall portfolio that has a potential for a large payoff rather than placing a large bet on a strong idea. I know both are still technically bets / not sure if that changes anything. But thank you for the thoughts and ideas -- that was exactly what I was looking for. And the call-spread + puts is a great idea and will look into it.

04-25-2020 , 04:26 PM

#5571

Wittgenheiny

adept

Join Date: Mar 2020 Posts: 776

Quote:

Originally Posted by AnotherMakiavelli

Funny that some are even mentioning IQ in here. Actually there is different forms of IQ, at least in the modern world. If googling for "trump voter iq" you will find a lot of articles.
[/IMG][/SPOIL]

Anyone who falls for the claim that 50% of the voting public has a lower IQ than the 50% who voted for the other guy proves only that the reader is credulous and likely low IQ himself.

It's obvious propaganda that makes no statistical sense at all.

04-25-2020 , 06:48 PM

#5572

access denied

newbie

Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 34

Quote:

Originally Posted by "88k"

You could buy a ladder of OTM puts, duration and distance OTM that fits your expectation. Extra credit: finance some of it by selling OTM calls.

04-25-2020 , 06:55 PM

#5573

RikaKazak

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2005 Posts: 9,663

Quote:

Originally Posted by joe6pack

RikaKazak

When you say google recommended ibuprofen, in what way?

I'm curious because it has been well known for some time that nsaids can make covid worse.

In this thread in an earlier post you’ll see what happened to me + NSAIDs. A couple posts after that you’ll see where one member posted about how one countries website recommended taking them. And another countries website recommended against taking them. (Both first world European countries, I think it was Britain and France, but I may be remembering incorrectly)

04-25-2020 , 06:58 PM

#5574

Hoopster81

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Feb 2005 Posts: 7,277

Quote:

Originally Posted by RikaKazak

TL;DR: How can I improve my lung function and capacity due to the damage I received from having Covid-19?

From what I understand, it's the alveoli that are primarily targeted in the lungs. Probably you already know, but the purpose of these are to greatly increase the surface area of the lungs. If a bunch of these were to go offline, you would have less efficient gas exchange and experience your symptoms.

The good news is you're young, and I would guess you will get back to normal as your body heals.

edit: wife says she thinks you should have your primary care doctor refer you to a pulmonologist because it sounds like it could be pneumonia or asthma

Last edited by Hoopster81; 04-25-2020 at 07:17 PM.