Might be dependent on prevalence of other morbidities (eg. obesity, diabetes, hypertension). I remember there was some recent NY data floating around, but I don't remember what it said offhand.

That is not much higher than usual death rates:

Are deaths actually rising? I thought the increase was attributed to counting methodology changes. Obviously if you change the methodology, you have to change the model though. So it seems you end up in the same spot either way.

That makes sense.

Just like cruise ships the world's military ships should suspend normal operations and keep as few staff onboard as possible at shore.

There are geopolitical risks to this. There are already reports that the China and Iran navies are getting more frisky in areas the US has a decreased presence due to COVID-19.

-It appear the environmental associated morbidity associated with being a police officer (in US #195 at least) is even more than I had expected.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4734369/

" On average, the life expectancy of Buffalo police officers in our sample was significantly lower than the U.S. population (mean difference in life expectancy =21.9 years; 95% CI: 14.5-29.3; p<0.0001)."

Analysis of March covid deaths in England&Wales

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulat...inginmarch2020

In terms of seeing the big picture of how many people have actually had the virus, antibody tests are the next big area of misleading data coming out.

We need to know what percentage of people get the virus and do not develop antibodies (it's probably at least 50-75%), and what percentage of those people still have immunity due to memory T cells, and how long the immunity lasts. If immunity doesn't last long then it doesn't even matter because the virus will just keep circulating.

True heroes

And you also have to somehow factor in how reinfection would invariably clinically present differently than initial infection. We could hope it could present milder due to some level of residual immunity, but it could also be worse because you could be compounding damage to already damaged organs (heart, lungs)

This seems like a pretty common sense thing to do at this point in time.

https://twitter.com/J_CD_T/status/1250815341044924425

Belgium has also released data, remember Belgium is being extremely conservative in not counting a death as a corona-death.

Results:

Week 13 (starting 23/03): 704 reported corona deaths vs 923 observed excess deaths
Week 14 (starting 30/03): 1.464 reported corona deaths vs 1.700 observed excess deaths

I haven't seen a country that is closer to the excess death than Belgium.
Fwiw we will most likely overtake Spain in death/capita today and will be number 1 of most death/capita excluding countries with <100k inhabitants (Belgium has 11,5 million).

High stress and donuts.

Canada looks like it's now at around 100 deaths/day.
https://www.worldometers.info/corona...ountry/canada/

Anyone willing to give a take on any significant differences between Canada at this point in time and Italy on March 9th when they were also around 100 deaths/day?

We know from South Korea and Diamond Princess cruise data the "true" death rate is somewhere in the neighborhood of 1.5 to 2%, depending on the morbidities of your infected population. As you have 1700 observed deaths, this would indicate that (after accounting for death time lag) as of around 2-3 weeks ago Belgium had ~85,000 infections.

Italy had only very limited measures in place on March 9th. They implemented the first major measures on March 9th and put the whole country in lockdown on March 11th.

Death peak lags infection peak somewhere between 20 and 30 days.

Don't know about the measures in place in Canada, but I assume major measures have been in place for a while now?

In addition to official measures, and perhaps much more importantly behavior, being vastly different, he is also assuming that Italy and Canada were recording COVID deaths in real time with the same accuracy in the first few weeks of disease spread; which is doubtful.

181 today.
Canada cases are in majority from Quebec. Ontario is #2 but is testing much less (17k per 100,000 in QC, 8.5k per 100,000 in ON if I got this right)
https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/corona...nada-1.4852102

I'll talk about Quebec which has a majority of deaths in Canada.
Compared to Italy on March 9th (which is Italy's lockdown date IIRC?):

- Quebec has closed schools and non essential activities for 3-4 weeks now. People get fined for gathering or being 2 meters from each other, but still get to go outside to parks, so it's not as strict of a lockdown as in France/Spain/Italy.
- Quebec is counting some cases and deaths who are untested but have been in close contact with a case
- Quebec has recently been adding deaths that didn't occur in the last 24 hours (nursing homes are getting hit pretty hard)
- Quebec authorities think they've reached a plateau in transmission and will soon reach a plateau in hospitalization
- Quebec has a much higher testing capacity, and hospitals are still somewhat empty.

Is the Gilead drug going to save everything or is that bogus?

Is this reopening the economy real? Or is this a trump joke?

Market certainly thinks it's the great hope we're waiting on

Yeah from the market sentiment it’s over, we beat it.

facts

I don't think the contention is that it was created in a lab; but rather that the lab was studying a virus that occurred naturally in bats but handled its procedures poorly and infected patient zero, who spread it in Wuhan.

A big chunk of the issue is China hiding information. We may ultimately never have an answer as to what exactly happened, but the destruction of information and disappearing of doctors who tried to warn people lead one to believe the worst.

Considering this article was posted yesterday morning, remdesvir has done a complete 180.

https://www.fiercebiotech.com/biotec...l-halted-china

Here's a story from the same website on today's news.

https://www.fiercebiotech.com/biotec...mdesivir-trial

The jury is still out on the drug and more data likely won't be ready for a few weeks, so if you believe the rally is being led on just this news, it likely isn't sustainable.

yeah, I was just being cheeky about how people perceive these things and the lack of grey area thinking in most public debates.