He will not be able to do this in 2 weeks, the U.S. is about to get hammered and he will not be able to lie to the American public, the American public will not fall for it.

The data shows the U.S. will likely have at least 3k deaths by the end of 14 days. Our hospitals are also going to be infested and look like hell in New York and Seattle, no way he will be able to say "mission accomplished", America won't buy it. I think best estimate for the U.S. right now is 3 - 6.5k deaths by the end of 14 days. The lowest you could go with the current data is 2k deaths, I think 3k - 6.5k is more likely though.

EDIT: Expect 2 - 4.5k deaths. The reason why I pushed it back is because of the median-age of NY and Seattle. If the median-age of NY and Seattle was mid-40s, then you could push it to around 6k.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019...nsmission.html

Let’s assume that’s mostly true. Wouldn’t it follow that if everyone wore a mask when in close proximity to others whether at home, work or out in public we’d likely see R0 drop to ≤ 1.0?

So while it wouldn’t be an endgame solution and exponential flare-ups would likely occur from time to time, as a stop-gap we’d at least keep the number of infections at a manageable level while still allowing society to function somewhat normally until a vaccine becomes available.

2 weeks from now or two weeks from the original 15 day declaration (3/16)?

Gonna be a lot more than 2k deaths two weeks from now...

If in a closed environment with a surgical mask, I highly doubt it. With that said, that does not mean surgical mask are useless, they likely impact the R naught to a degree if everyone wears one, how much is debatable, but it is definitely better then wearing nothing that's for sure. If your question is "Could we all wear surgical mask, continue with our normal daily activities as if the virus did not exist, and drop the R naught below 1?" The answer to that question is probably no. (Very unlikely).

Fourteen days from now is April 6th. I would bet you that on April 6th, we have more than 4.5k deaths in the US. I would even bet you it's more than 6k. I'm not calling you out or looking for an actual bet, just posting this for posterity.

Yes masks help. But we can't even get enough masks to equip or healthcare workers, let alone the general population. Which is why they won't come out and say they help, because it would just make mask hoarding that much worse.

My sister is expected to go into a an entire floor dedicated to only covid patients, and she is not allowed to wear a mask. Only those actually going into the rooms are allowed masks.

Very risky. For this to occur NY and Seattle would have to theoretically achieve a similar mortality rate to that of Italy. Italy is a much older population then NY and Seattle, these are fairly young populations. By the way, I do think it is theoretically possible to hit 6k, but that does not mean it is the most likely scenario.

6000 deaths by April 6th + x! by July 1st out of a population of 327 million whilst tanking the strongest (forget leveraged or inflated....it was still the strongest) economy in the world.

I have recurring thoughts of "just let them go" and lets get on with life but then I look in the mirror and see a 1" wide moustache so be careful of who I say this too.

Instead, I share videos on wet markets and wonder why I still have friends on the tar pit that is Facebook saying "But they were culturally acceptable practices for a population needing food". FML giant meteor please.

I'll add (4) highly vulnerable seniors and the elderly began isolating/social distancing themselves more and more as news of the spread broke.

I'm half expecting to see the same thing in the U.S. when our age group data on deaths and ICU cases comes out. That is, a disproportionate number of lower age groups requiring critical care or dying than the earlier numbers suggest because the olds have been taking extra precautionary measures for a while now.

source on these 10 minute tests?

seems hard to believe they can return one in 10 minutes and ours are taking > 1000 minutes

We are at 524 deaths today. With just 19% growth per day we'd be at 5983 in 14 days.

With 25% growth per day we'd be at 11,914.

30% growth is 20,631.

15% growth is 3,707.

10% is 1,909.

The last 5 days have been 39% (yesterday), 18%, 24%, 38%, 38%.

No chance we are under 2k in 14 days. Would take quite the leveling off next week to keep it under 4k.

I would also bet on >6k.

Can you please stop straw-manning me? This is the second time you have done it, thanks.

That's one possibility, which is mentioned in the articles if you actually read them. What I said was there was no clear reason for the disparate figures, and there isn't.

The other possibilities listed are:
1) More younger people got sick initially
2) Germany has far more hospital beds allowing them higher throughput
3) Catching the virus earlier is helping people get the help they need before severe symptoms get out of control

I also read from a German MD that a large proportion of their beds have ventilators built into them. There is some anecdotal evidence that northern europeans aren't hit with as severe symptoms as others, or that there is possibly a small, beneficial mutation that happened. We know for a fact that the virus is mutating slightly as it spreads.

It's probably a combination of all of those reasons. Who'd have thought the world was complex, huh?

You are completely incorrect. Germans are not dying at a lower rate then people in other countries, you are coming to an erroneous conclusion because you are misreading the data. If Germans were dying at a lower rate we would see a longer doubling period of death of > 4+ days, this is not what we are seeing. You are making a mistake with data interpretation, you have this idea that Germans have a lower mortality rate then people in other countries, this is just an error on your part.

Not once did I say Germans have a lower mortality. All I said was there was no clear reason yet for why their total deaths are so low, and I am correct. There isn't a clear reason why this is the case right now. There are probably lots of reasons, earlier testing being one of them. That's an important distinction, and a distinction that is actually made in the articles, if you actually read them. No one in those articles believes the German morality rate will be lower in the end. It explicitly states that in one of them.

I suggest you actually read what people are writing instead of just parroting a simple answer to a complex difference.

No you are not correct, and you are arrogantly incorrect in your assessment. Their is a clear reason for why there deaths are currently low. The case fatality rate will continue to rise the further you go on the x-axis, this is already occurring as we speak.

You're still not getting it. I am not pointing out anything regarding the rate of increase. We already know the rate of reproduction is ~2.2 with a probable 1-2% death rate.

What I am pointing out is why current German reported fatalities are lagging other countries with similar infection numbers, and there could be lots of reasons for that.

For example, imagine that 50% of the first 1000 cases in Italy were people over the age of 60, but that only 10% of the first 1000 cases in Germany were over 60. The ratios of people over the age of 60 getting the disease in the country will be roughly identical in the end, and so will the fatality rate, all things being equal. But the death count in Germany will be far lower in the initial stages than Italy. Pretty simple example I hope you will understand. Saying "Germans are just testing more than others" is a simp take on a complex situation.

You have got to be kidding me. You are struggling with this because you are misreading the data, why are you misreading the data? Because Germany has superior testing and it is messing with your eyes. Do you see how many are currently in serious/critical in Germany? It's is only 23, do you know why it is only 23? Because, it takes weeks for people to be hospitalized and a month for people to eventually die from this virus, Germany has superior testing and it is giving off this illusion of having a lower case fatality rate, when in reality, the further you go on the x-axis, Germany's case fatality rate will look just like everyone else's.

You're still misinterpreting what I'm saying and I don't know what else I can say to make you understand it, so I will politely exit the conversation from this point to avoid a complete derail.

No actually, I am not.

You should both keep debating it. It's super interesting to read.

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In the moment when the country needs to lockdown even harder, the president gets up there and talks about loosening restrctions soon. (hopefully? lol)

This is clearly Trump's attempt to minimize the blow to the markets, which is important, but I think it may have the opposite effect. The markets may take this as a sign that the problem is going to last even longer now.

Well played.

The Korean 10 minute tests are antibody tests, similar to a 45 minute test from a US company Cepheid that received FDA approval yesterday.

It's my understanding that antibody tests are not quite as accurate as a properly administered PCR tests like we are doing now. But they are cheap and fast (supposedly 10 dollars) and >90% accurate. (PCR tests in the states are ~200)

So it's not all that far fetched to believe the Koreans have a test that is 4x faster than what was recently FDA approved in the states. As for a source, there is lots of info out there about the Korean tests but I don't know what's authoritative on Asian media outlets.

I don't know about "very unlikely." I think it's at least likely that everyone wearing masks would reduce the 2.5 transmission rate (where people are essentially doing nothing to reduce transmission) by at least 60%.

Good breakdown of Italy fatality rates, a bit different and more in depth than I've previously seen:

LINK