What value, if any, does having ownership of the FTP software and rush poker technology in a legal U.S. market? I recall that the major casinos are partnering with the likes of Party and 888 for software, and it just so happens that Party and 888's software sucks. Imagine the advantage an American online poker operator would have over the competition with FTP software and especially rush poker. Wouldn't even be close.

FWIW, you would be one of the handful of "mostly negative" posters in this thread that I would've put in category C. Yesright is nowhere close to providing any kind of objective view of the situation and it's become very clearly obvious the last several days since the latest announcement.

Uhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh not sure if srs?

Regardless of what has happened with FTP1... FTP2 will be PRINTING money. Maybe not initially, but if i had 280mm or whatever it is to buy FTP2, I'd buy it in a HEART beat and pop champagne expecting to make an exponential amount in return. And if you don't think FTP2 will be printing money, then with all due respect, you're delusional.


Oh and in before all the "omg how can you trust them after what they've done blah blah blah".

1) it won't be the same tards running the show
2) FTP2 will be under such a HUGE microscope after what FTP1 did, there is no WAY they will be able to FART without someone looking over their shoulder.

A couple of problems with this theory:

1. Most Americans will remember that GBT had no interest in paying them back, and won't give them the EFing time of day. Also, brand names are crucial in this business; it might have new management, but it will still be called Full Tilt Poker. Quality software is a driving issue for a minority of the players.
2. Legal US market doesn't really exist now. We could have a couple of states passing legislation in the next few years, but that is a far cry from being able to operate in all 50 states. And FTP2 may not be able to get licenses in every state.

Agreed, I can't see FTP being worth more than a discounted price of the software development cost, which has to be substantially less than $20 million. A stated $80 million purchase price only makes sense if there are readily available other assets genuinely worth more than $60 million. This is why the valuation of the (debt) account receivables is so important.

Secondly, businessmen always shy away from "buying a lawsuit" and most won't even consider a business with substantial legal problem. I don't see FTP's legal problems ending with USDOJ; re-licensing may be a nightmare and more and more nations are regulating online poker every day. It looks like the US market may not be back in the foreseeable future. The possibility of there being unknown or unquantifiable liabilities is very high.

Thirdly, I think the goodwill value is, to use a legal term, zilch. It may be negative.

If I were advising the purchaser, I'd probably say, "Walk away," but if GBT completes the purchase, and pays everyone their account balances, I can only say, "Thank you." If not, I wrote my FTP account money off a long time ago.

On a totally different note, here's two guy's recap of the whole industry situation (dated March 1, 2012):
http://www.miaminewtimes.com/2012-03...lion-industry/

And whats your job? Or are you just making a random assumption like the rest of the people in this thread based on their own reflection on how the world works?

I feel a lot better knowing you didn't have me lumped in category A..

I would add to bolded. There is benefit to not having to wait for the software to be developed. Competing software development would probably take more than six months and in that period of time the current software could be used to be generating profits. So I would say the value in the software is development cost plus what can be made with the already developed software in the amount of time it would take a top notch software company to develop something comparable.

Fwiw I don't see the rest of FT's assets being worth anywhere near $60 million.

so why havnt investors been falling over themsleves to buy FTP then?

Many looked at FTP, all walked away after due diligence.

Maybe they know something you dont.

LOL, 15 posts and already an expert.

If you asked nice, I would lay out some pretty solid credentials.

I 100% disagree. I think there is a sizable % of negative posters that either sold off their ftp at .15 cents on the dollar and now are desperate that they didn't end up on the bad side of a deal, as well as many jealous posters that were losing players in this thread.

I never played on UB or was invested in it emotionally. What happened there was terrible, but I was never in those threads day in day out arguing about it. To be this persistent in a thread over months and months, takes a special kind of person. You have to be emotionally invested on some level, and if one is being negative, it's primarily out of jealousy.

well they do, so get over it. That's all that matters when it comes to valuing something. It's worth what someone is willing to pay.

Amazing. The same two guys trying to pedal this BS over and over. And if I took another two months off, I could come back to see the same thing.

But I suppose that since they can't make a logical argument, what else can they do.

BTW - does Burger King have a space in their job applications for your PTR stats?

It doesn't matter if you can understand it or not. The more important observation should be that a) he probably knows what he is doing and b) he spend a lot of time, money and effort into negotiations. You honestly think he would do this as a businessman if he didn't see a good chance of making something happen?

It's also kinda hilarious that you call Matt Glantz blog 'evidence'. There was a good reply to his blog in this thread disagreeing with his opinions and making more sense (at least to me).

While this is a good point, I totally agree that FTPs software is superior to Party and 888 but the name and company FTP has also been linked to bank fraud and a ponzi scheme by the US govnt.
Not sure why any future company would want to be linked to them.

As soon as BF hit a number of American B&M casinos who were making deals with online poker rooms dropped them like a bad habit to not involve themsleves in the scandal.

I said this before that I have no idea why anyone would buy FTP and keep the same name.

Surely it would make sense to rebrand to a new name not associated with the old company and all its misdeeds.

I do actually agree that the FTP software is one of the biggest assets but by the time FTP reopens there could be other companies devloping software just as good considering the financial rewards pending legislation in the US.

Alright Ill take your word for it then. Btw my grandpa says FTP deal is going thru, solid source here guys

There are plenty of lifetime losers that post on 2+2 but they're not the online fish that you're referring to imo. Fish don't read 2+2 trying to get better. Fish just deposit, play, lose, rinse, repeat etc...

As a result I don't think the number of "jealous losers" posting itt or any other thread pertaining to FTP is nearly as high as you're trying to make it out to be.

So what about all the other businessmen/investors who looked at FTP yet walked away?

If there was massive value here surely a number of suitors would be in a bidding war.

I could have sworn in a recent statement that GBT said that FTP was in a much worse state than they thought they were in!

So much for good due diligence.

Losing player = fish =! lifetime losers. I'm pretty sure there are a lot of losing player reading and posting on 2+2.

Good questions, also: If online poker is so easily profitable, why haven't venture capitalists been funding development of the best poker software in the world, the cost of which would be very little for them, and then funding a new site's start up?

While my most recent posts may sound negative, as a lawyer, I find GBT's attorney's statements encouraging. It sounds like a difficult transaction, with many problems to be resolved; which is what I would expect, that there is some risk of failure, but that the principals involved still believe it will be completed and are working diligently to that end.

The value of FTP is obviously not static for every investor, for Tapie it would interact positively with the Stadium Poker Tour if that's something he wants to get behind of. There might be other ideas he has. Who knows?

But your argument just sucks in general. There weren't any previous negotiations that are comparable to the ones ongoing. Given the complexity of the investment it's also more than understandable why different investors would come to different conclusions. Furthermore there are probably not that many potential investors to begin with. You want to make it sound like someone is selling Yu-Gi-Oh for a good price on ebay.. I could go on, but this should be fairly obvious to someone who spends so much time thinking about this like you....

I'm not sure what the mystery here is with the valuation - you buy not merely the best software in the industry, but a ready employee base, and, even after an inevitable exodus, one of the largest player bases in the industry with money already deposited to play with. Also, the brand, if they want it - which by virtue of having years of name recognition, is probably still valuable after a year in the mud.

Valuations that assume only the software is important miss the point - you're not just buying (world class) software, but a complete business that pretty much needs to turn on the lights to start up again.



FTP was making ~$100M/yr before they managed to screw things up. Take away the US half of the player base, and assume they do only half as much ROW business now, and at 10x earnings they're worth...pretty close to the ~$230M price shown above, and that estimate used the full $80M purchase price without caveats for remaining FTP assets which would knock several 10s of millions off of that.

Throw in the fact that FTP is synergistic with another business that GBT is starting, or that they've negotiated the door open for if the US market opens up...



It's really not hard to see why GBT thinks they have the better end of this. They're probably buying this at close to 10x expected earnings with significant upside.

Valuating a company is based on hypotheses. It is not as simple as taking a quick look at the books, plugging numbers into a calculator and seeing if it is worth investing.

Based on these hypotheses, some investors will see it as a profitable decision and others won't. Being able to make the correct hypotheses is the cornerstone to making good investment decisions. Tapie has historically shown great skill in this regard.

That said, you have the argumentation skills of a brick. Have you ever heard of the word 'fallacy'? You'd do us a huge favour by not posting until you stop resorting to these as your go-to comebacks whenever common sense smacks you in the face.