Ugh, so wrong in so many ways.

reading this thread is cringeworthy.. so much dumb it's unreal

I think your viewpoint assumes that he needs to complete the deal in order to apply for a license and launch the site, but the software is already licensed by Alderney and he is "negotiating" the reinstatement of the AGCC license.

He also applied for a Spanish license in his own name, so for right now there is little if any reason for him to hand over $80M to the DOJ, and no reason at all for him not to imply that the deal might be in jeopardy unless (fill in the blank) occurs.

That's not to say that the deal isn't in jeopardy, just that the fact that the deal hasn't been signed isn't a reliable indicator.

Pocket Kings "insiders" have been quoted as saying that none of the key positions have been refilled since the layoffs in the fall, so it's clearly not a case of Tapie having one finger on the launch button just awaiting the bat signal from Alderney.

Like you said, the value of FTP disintegrates every day, and it will be his evaluation of FTP when/if he gets licensed which will determine whether or not he makes the purchase.

They will for the countries in which they license FTP2 to operate. Those European countries where a national license is required may not be covered, so FTP2 may not be offering players in those countries their balances, yet, until they can get a national license. First assumption is that GBT will not have to come up with all $175M right away. Second assumption is that GBT will not be the ones to come up with the money to cover those ROW balances that are not withdrawn. That's where the 85% that Tapie was going to seek elsewhere comes in. It won't be raised by selling voting shares. so Tapie still controls the company.

Decent chance it could be about half of whatever amount he has to cover.

On the order of $10M.

Minus the $60M (now reduced) he expected to get back from the purchased assets.

Or alternatively,what is their cash draw-down? Probably on the order of $0.5M/month

Yup. If he really has to come up with $80M + $10M + 175M, there's no way he can make a profit. That's why I think we're looking at a leveraged purchase of the assets, and investors to cover (most of) the player funds.

Understandable. However, he wouldn't still be here if he didn't think he could make money. Since, as you correctly point out, he can't make money by investing ~$265M he must be looking at doing it another way.

There's a decent chance none of those other investors had experience in corporate turnarounds. They probably had more of a poker/gaming background.

And obviously I am just speculating, and making wild guesstimates here. Deal could happen, deal could die. Tapie might put up $50M or $150M.

I'm less pessimistic about this than you, but probably only because I can see how Tapie might pull off the deal without putting up anywhere near the amount of money you were thinking about. I'm a lot more pessimistic than those people who think FTP2 can make multiple tens of $M per year.

To play Devils advocate, didnt the previous investor group spend a large amount of time/money plus signing an exclusive negotiation agreement before ending up walking away.

GBT said in the recent statement things were much worse than they thought.

That statement seems like an excuse to walk if the deal isn't right.

Tapie has not spent that much money so far. If the deal is not right he could easily back out. He is in no way tied to the deal based on the time and money spent so far.

From everything we have been led to believe the doj and Tapie agreed on terms a while ago. I haven't seen anything to suggest the doj is the reason this is dragging out.

In the next several weeks Tapie & co will walk away and a new investor will materialise so that we can wait another 9 months to get to where we are today.

I don't know where you got the crazy idea FTP made 100 million a year. As far as we can tell FTP was NEVER profitable.

So saying you just turn on the lights of a business that is coming off a massive fraud, where most of the depositors want to get their money ASAP and you just flip on the switch

It is going to take a lot of time and money to make FTP profitable, and it may never happen. It still amazes me some people still think FTP was some kind of money making machine. The only way they make 100 million is by stealing deposits again.

That is why when people dismiss the players loans as no big deal that it could take years of profits to make back that money. This is not some kind of slam dunk investment. Either Tapie pays a really small amount so he has a chance to make it profitable and recoup the investment or he plans to flip it in a couple years.

It is not a printing press that just needs to be turned on.

As it stands right now it does seem the software is the only asset of any value.

Was Tapie the guy who fixed football matches and used to be involved with that poker site (think it was called Atlas Poker) that went broke and stiffed players of their money?

How many times are you going to repeat this lie? Or are you incapable of subtracting 330 from 440?

I can just see bitar et al sitting in the jacuzzi sipping champagne, smoking cigars, while they have their lobsters read your emails outloud to big laughs.

Guys stealing 100s of millions are not bothered by others stealing millions.

I am guessing the unprofitable business where the owners stole 400 million of player deposits than some pesky lawsuit. There is no chance anyone previous to black Friday would have bought the business when they saw the mess it was.

If Monsieur Tapie needs $200M++ to save and start a new FTP which he obviously doesnt want to pay as he has calculated it isnt worth it then where is it going to come from?

Obviously Howard Lederer and Chris Ferguson and Ray Bitar havent got any money to give him as that source of money has been seized or frozen by The DoJ whilst the other shareholders havent shown any inclination to return any of their dividends which were obviously paid from player funds rather than profits.

Meanwhile the pro players who owe FTP $17M collectively are either broke or dont want to pay Tapie directly then it only leaves one of two possible sources in which to make this deal work.

Either he finds an investor to bankroll this project for him (highly doubtful as he would have sealed the deal by now if he had found some mug to pay for this for him) or he has to significantly reduce what he pays to RoW players.

Looks to me that his only option is to somehow lessen what he pays back the players so I guess the longer he waits the more likely it is that RoW players will accept much less of their balances.

Could this be a plausible explanation for this protracted delay to completing any possible deal?

http://www.pocketfives.com/articles/...l-work-587199/

^^Interesting - thanks for posting

This would be not a good opinion. GBT wants to make money with the ROW players in the future.

What would happen if the ROW on get x% of their money back? We would take money we get and will never play on FTP2.

I like to play at FT for several reasons, and I am willing to play on FTP2, but I would not give FTP2 any action if they take 1 cent of my money.
I they want us not to withdrawel they can give incentives like Bonus for those who do not withdrawel. But give the players only x% would not be a solution.

I don't know what to think of this article. Week by week my hope rises, falls, rises, falls. Mondays' "we are very close to executing...." sounded a lot better than sentences used like "The Tapie group is committed to trying ...." or "... but no one wants to throw in the towel...." or "The parties are sufficiently confident that we can get this done" .

I was going to the say the same thing. A statement like throw in the towel isn't what I was looking for. That really stood out to me.

whatever way this turns out is gonna be quite the conclusion to all of this. i feel like i have been in this "will i get this back" for forever now

Of course this would be a very bad idea for Tapie to do this but where else can the money to make this deal happen come from?

He does not want to pay it and the DoJ will not give it to him so where?

Very horrible quotes from a lawyer speaking for Tapie group

Translating into plain language it is like he is saying

We really want to make this happen

We are trying very hard to make this happen nd Tapie group really want the FTP assets and we have worked very hard and continue to work hard.

But the deal is dead but we do not want to give up just yet so we are going to take another few weeks to see if we can make it work because if we do not make a deal nobody else will as nobody else exists or can make it work.

Just seems like last chance saloon and quotes of sheer desperation.

Would be nice if someone in these interviews would ask the direct question if players will be allowed to take all their money out straight away without penalty if FTP ever reopens but at present it looks like the deal needs to be made first before the problem of making the RoW players whole gets addressed.

thanks for posting. pretty much, what i would have expected to hear from him and about the whole situation. i think, this will get sorted out and we´ll get paid

so much bull**** in so few words...
well done, mate