I believe a deal will happen soon but not because people keep coming in here and posting it.

Mainly because of Bitar's e-mail suggesting as much and the DOJ request for a one-week extension to wrap up settlements suggesting they believe they can wrap it up in a week.

Absolutely right. Something good is in the wind for sure, I am only sick and tired of the newbie trolls pretending to be insiders. Thankfully I really believe we are beyond that at last

I wonder what most of us are going to do when this deal goes through with all of this spare time we will pry have from not checking this as much....

Lawyers:

Got something new from the docket here.

http://docs.justia.com/cases/federal...64/377900/188/

http://docs.justia.com/cases/federal...?ts=1341480639

The docket says it is a civil forfeiture action, while the actual filing says it is a criminal forfeiture action. In it, US Attorney Michael Lockard filed with the court a sworn statement that he posted notice of the criminal forfeiture action on the forfeiture.gov website for x amount of days.

The interesting part to me, is that the actual document says "in this CRIMINAL FORFEITURE action, yet they seized bank accounts from Bitar, Lederer, and Ferguson. Until now, haven't we been under the impression that Lederer and Ferguson had no criminal proceedings against them.

Can anyone with more experience with criminal/civil forfeiture explain this?

I found this on the FBI website: "As a general rule, the seizure of the property through criminal forfeiture may not occur until after the property has been forfeited. The district court then issues an order to seize the property, and the seizure is made by the United States Marshals Service (USMS)."

DF, Gioco, Mondo. Fill us in on what this means please.

Edit: I'm not suggesting the property has been seized yet. I don't think it has, I think this is a step in that process. I'm looking for an explanation on the criminal forfeiture language.

good work bizzle

so this was dated july 3rd..... does this have anything to do with the assests being given up? if so, i would def say the ball is rolling on this...

can we go back to aggo posting youtube videos? was wayyyyy more productive than reading the countless posts claiming to know something is going to happen in 2 weeks etc.

Those of us that are professional players will play poker. Those that aren't will continue posting in NVG.

and who the **** are you?

so only professionals will be playing poker?

that's a clown comment bro

You think people that are posting in this thread that don't even have any money on FT are going to use the extra time they will have to play poker? No, they won't.

Apparently, a 25 year old capricorn from the UK looking for a 20-24 year old woman...

http://www.lavaplace.com/Pavel929/

I don't mean to give the impression that I think that FTP must have had less than $1B in deposits annually. Depending on how one interprets "way more" I might disagree that they had way more than $1B deposits annually. I don't have a good idea of deposit size, and I'd rather see an explanation than just some number pulled out of the air (or some darker place). Your efforts in this regard are appreciated.

How long was that "short spell"? Two months? US deposits were more like 40% weren't they? If so, that translates to about $1.9B per year. With over 90% of the phantom deposists long gone, it is entirely possible that phantom deposits were made at a faster than usual deposit rate, by people who were deliberately taking advantage of FTP's payment processor problems. OTOH, it could be that the net deposit rate had slowed down because people were hearing that FTP was having trouble. So we don't know whether deposit rate in that time period was higher or lower than usual.

Yes, it was $8-9M/wk. Where do you get that this was on less than half their normal volume? A moment ago you were telling me ROW was 70%. At 60% of volume, that's an annual deposit rate (adding back in a US portion) of $0.7B. But, that is gross deposits, not net. They were also processing withdrawls. Again we don't know whether the ROW deposit rate decreased from normal because of BF, or increased because of all the promotions FTP announced.

Both the examples you present are good ones for trying to get a handle on the magnitude of deposits. But they are not really good enough to nail down a figure to the nearest half billion or so. Before making adjustments to take into account assumed changes in volume from the normal rate, the two examples give results that vary by a factor of 2.7.

Based on these two examples alone, all we can conclude is that the ususal deposit rate was some number between a little under $1B/yr to somewhere a little under $10B/yr, with a greater likelyhood of being nearer the lower end of the range.

You think the only people with money on Full Tilt are professionals?

Bizzle absolutely owning this thread tonight. Well done sir.

You think you're a funny troll? Many of the regular posters in this thread are neither professions nor are they owed money by FT.

when did the DoJ ask for a 1 week extension? and what was the extension for? put in dumb terms because im kinda ******ed when it comes to legal stuff. (was about to say im legally ******ed, but i realized how that would sound haha)

can i be happy now that the most pessimistic guy in the thread is using smiley faces and cracking jokes

"The Government respectfully writes to request a brief adjournment of certain upcoming deadlines in this action in order to facilitate, and hopefully, to successfully conclude, certain ongoing settlement communications."

http://docs.justia.com/cases/federal...64/377900/187/

The deadline was for motions to dismiss and motions to strike, which would be filed by the defendants. Yet, the government willingly requested an extension of this deadline until June 9 for the above quoted reason.

Most deadline requests in this case have been for much longer periods of time. In order to not annoy or bother the judge by requesting an extension every week, you would think, that if they thought it would take longer they would request an extension for a longer period of time. By only requesting a week, that signals great confidence that they can conclude the settlement negotiations before July 9, the new deadline for motions to dismiss - imo.

i wish


mods deleted the last few ones that i've tried.

i dont think they like it =/

This issue is the only reason I come to 2+2 forums anymore.

Of course not.

Now stop pretending like I said that, because I haven't.
What I did say -long time ago- is this:

You read back that article knowing this it is clear the $30B aren't deposits, but bets
(because "approximately one third or more" in revenue over $30B > $4.8B).

Yes, that number.
You said:

Obviously that is not it since yearly deposits were already higher than $1B.
No doubt there is a legal term for it.

Here is something interesting from that article:

PokerStars and Full Tilt.
Together they account for maybe 70% of the $1.4 billion in revenue the U.S. industry brought in last year.

We are certain about the $1.4B number but not about marketshares.
Say the 70% is correct, Pokerstars/Full Tilt is 60/40 in the former US market and the revenue is 35%.
In that case yearly deposits in the USA alone were $1.12B.

WHOA WHOA WHOA since when was i dubbed the most pessimistic guy ITT? I think I'm far more optimistic than joeyrulesall lol. Honestly I never really was pessimistic.. just emo as fk b/c I'm going busto IRL

No. I get your point. My point was there are people who have a lot of money locked up, who would like to get back to playing, that are not professionals.

Well you did, it seemed pretty clear from your post that you questioned it.

Huh? FTP lost approx half their traffic on BF, why is it such a stretch to assume they lost approx half their deposits?


No, the phantom deposits were the amount lost not the amount deposited via ALL possible methods.
There were some credit cards and gift cards that were also used for deposits.
ACH transfers were not the only method open to US players during that period.


Weak conclusion in my opinion.

Why not just use the "known" figure of 9 million per week (468M per year)
and extrapolate for the "known" figure of approx half the traffic lost after BF.

It would seem a reasonable estimate is in the 0.8-1.1B per year range.