Doug is under more pressure to win this match than DNegs, it was expected to be a walkover! If Daniel can keep this close he will count it as some sort of a win.

Doug has much more on the line than money, will it affect his play, who knows.

I think the sample size is still too small to make these generalisations

https://twitter.com/Moonlightmaste1/...79277682434050

According to this guy's calculations, DNegs is 180k below EV so far

in terms of bb/100, what does the standard deviation in HUNL usually look like? 150, 160, somewhere around that, no?

Maybe Dnegs has comparative inexperience with HUNL and current approaches, but he is an experienced and highly skilled poker player.

Meaningless in a small sample size like the overall results so far. It seems people don't get favorable and unfavorable distributions. I guess on a different level that's why so many science experiments don't get reproducible results.

I know my expectation that Negreanu would lose heavily was based on watching his WSOP tournament play, where he was really bad, full of mistakes. But one hears that heads up has been solved, and it looks as though it may be possible. We have no real idea of how Negreanu has been preparing for this - who he is training with, who is advising him. So it is hard to say where the improvement comes from. Maybe he has spotted some betting patterns in Polk? And is cutting out his own mistakes.

Negreanu's weakness to me always has been that he has seemed like a butterfly, pulling in so many directions at the same time, ie playing tournaments, but also looking at the WSOP POY title, so making decisions to try to achieve opposing goals, and backing and following other players instead of just focussing on his own game. So he seems to be more single focussed in this Polk challenge, and playing better as a result. Still very early days, and the final outcome may be down to a run of cards, or who can avoid tilt best. But glad it is so much more competitive so far than had been expected.

The lesson is that y'all are way to results oriented and you react too much to the most recent results. When Danny won the live portion everybody was like "zomg, doug can't play live!". Then Doug picks up a couple of buyins and everyone is like "zomg, it's over! doug's gonna make a billion dollas!". Then danny sunruns into a half buyin lead and the other half is all like "hahah, you idiots were wrong the whole time. game passed doug by!"

It's 1.7k hands! Try going to a variance simulator and enter 1.7k hands at 20bb/100 with std.dev 150. 30% of the time the 20bb player is losing after 1k. At 10bb its 40%!

word

Just because a game has been solved doesn't mean it's easy for humans to replicate the solution.

This x100000.

Makes for a fun thread though.

It's been fun to read their overreaction.
Dnegs fans seem overly emotionally attached to the match. It's going to be exhausting for them if they get so hyped by every half buy in swing.

This heads up match suggests it is easier than it may appear for humans to replicate computer generated solutions. Polk quit poker before as he started running into guys who had done extensive study, and he no longer had the desire to spend that same amount of time to stay competitive, maybe this could be a case of history repeating itself, with Negreanu being the guy to have put tons of work in. But as others rightly say, still far too early to make any firmer conclusions, other than it is much more competitive so far than expected, and well done to both how they have conducted themselves so far, and whereas before I thought I could call the result, now I am just enjoying watching the ride!

Lol, think there's a bit of rewriting history there. I don't remember there being any evidence of Doug quitting poker bc he was running into people who had been studying. Also Doug has put in way more work to prepare for this challenge than Daniel. It's still very early days.

Definitely interesting as an anecdote but +1 to Jack Burton's post that this isn't a big enough sample size to matter. I think perhaps the more interesting point is that human brains simply can't think probabilistically -- with the consequence that's pretty easy to go on tilt playing HU when that sense of "I can't beat this guy" sneaks up on you and wrecks your decision making. The harder you've worked on solutions, the easier it is to squelch these demons. Edge here to Doug.

I quite like Doug's sense of humor and snark -- he gets funny-mean right. I've liked Danny for a long time, and don't understand the relentless hate he draws around here. Bottom line is that I like them both, but I'm pulling for the underdog here.

It boils down to the SNE debacle where he said, "guys, I got you," but he really didn't.

People keep calling Doug a douche, but I feel he's very tongue-in-cheek about it and often self-deprecating. Daniel I also like because he always tries to be cheerful and nice when interacting with people face-to-face. Online however.... yeesh!

Of course that's right. At the same time, that obviously was not his decision. I've been on the losing end of some internal corporate battles, and those can put one in a very difficult spot, particularly in a consumer-facing organization. You either toe the corporate line or you lose your job. He has been open on the DAT podcast that he disagreed with what PS did.

Everybody knows this. That's not why people say what they say.

Besides resigning, he probably should have talked to a guy like you.

(Among a slew of minor events and petty grievances, I'm sure whispering in his girlfriend's ear to say "**** the pros!" while giggling about it has done him no favors on 2p2 either.)

fees and chewy are so fn bad at commentating

Chewy has some substantively interesting things to say, but he doesn't articulate them particularly well. I'm not fond of Fee's style at all.

Doug would be a MUCH better commentator than either of those guys.

Nice of you to say, and thank you for it. Resigning is a hella big ask. If your company is making Zyklon-B, I get it. But while changing terms you're allowed to change is definitely scummy, it's hard for me -- or anyone, IMO -- to say he should have resigned over it.

Think Chewy could be pretty good if put with the right person but Fees is awful. He doesn't even seem at all interested in trying so why bother even doing it. At one stage he literally told the chat if they don't like him rambling about random **** then **** off and watch something else.