I wish timex shared this sentiment

It's a real shame Kev isn't going to be commentating these matches any more. It's no easy task to effectively commentate a no hole card HU match without being boring or cringe. I can't even watch the Upswing stream because the commentary is so bad, but this Kev guy actually makes the GGpoker stream enjoyable. Even if I knew nothing about poker I'd still enjoy watching that stream for the banter. Kaki is great as well, but I think he fits the role of a co-commentator best. I hope they can replace Kev with someone of equal caliber.

I wonder if this little reversal spurt could actually end up being +EV for Doug.

I know it sounds ridiculous, especially since all the Doug fans are trying to find ways to find silver linings in his downswing or whatever, but, seriously:

If Doug had just continued with a mixture of monster wins and breakeven sessions and only a few minor losing sessions all the way to the 12.5k mark, what do you think the odds would've been of Negreanu choosing to continue with the 2nd half of the challenge (if he was down over a mil by that point and it was looking very grim. Pretty low odds of continuing, presumably).

But, with Daniel having these two big winning sessions in a row, and even with taking a bad beat from Doug at the end of one of them, so Daniel is thinking to himself it could've even been a bigger winning session for him, and with him bringing a 280k lead back and even flipping back into the lead, presumably this will stick out strongly in Daniel's mind from here on out.

So, even if he's down close to a mil by the 12.5k hand mark, or maybe even over a mil, he'll probably be quite a bit less likely to resign at the 12.5k mark, because it won't seem as hopeless and steamrolley to him as it would if he hadn't had this reversal spurt here early on in the match.

For example:

Let's say Doug was expected to be +1 mil by the halfway mark, and Daniel was expected to have around a 25% chance of continuing with the challenge if he was down 1 mil or more at the halfway mark

Scenario 2: Doug only ends up +750k by the halfway mark, due to these big early reversal swings. And Daniel remembers how he was able to regain the lead from a big early deficit. Daniel's odds of continuing maybe = more like 70% at the halfway mark in this scenario.

If this was the case, Doug's overall EV would be a lot higher in the second scenario, since he'd get an extra 12.5k hands after the halfway point to gobble up another mil of EV or more.

Obviously I'm taking some wild guesses at what the percentages of continuance would be and how much Doug should be expected to be up.

So, depending how far off these guesses are, it could be -EV for Doug overall, and not +EV for him to have this happen.

But, still... I don't think it's completely crazy to think these last two sessions could actually end up being to Doug's benefit in terms of his overall EV in the challenge.

Pretty sure I'm gonna take some heat for this hot take, lol. But, **** it, I'm curious if any of the math people or hunl regs think this could be correct.

Daniel is always quitting at 12.5k in case that wasn't obvious.

Well, he actually stated that if it's anyway close at the halfway point there's no way he'll quit. Also, I believe Bill Perkins has thrown in some sort of sweetener to incentivise him to continue. So there's a really good chance this goes the distance unless he's getting absolutely crushed.

Have enjoyed this match a lot. Delighted Daniel got back to even so quickly to make things interesting. It's good for the game.

It's a shame Kevin won't be commentating next week. Him and Kaki have been great to listen to. They have a nice dynamic going on doing what's not an easy job.

I see him/they have gone a different way with the video title compared to the others Doug won... so so petty. Oh well, it's his channel - Just thought he might lay off during the challenge.

he didn't get stacked for 200k repeatedly, did he? He is a bit delusional apparently.

he is significantly above EV in big allins.

he is tilting monkey after losing a big pot starting from the first session live.

he can't adjust his play vs. Negreanu nitting.

Good job betting for 1.1-1.2 guys. In a weekend you can find pretty sure soccer bets for 1.1-1.2 which are much less riskier than HU holdem. Instead you choose to stress over two months for 1.1-1.2 return. LOL.

Understanding stuff doesn't seem to be your strong point. He got stacked repeatedly for 200k. 40k + 40K + 40K + 40k + 40k = 200k.

Get it.

Posting with such authority whilst being absolutely incorrect. This thread in a nutshell

Glad I didn't watch Fee's stream today, judging by the recap vid they've done they really pumped the bias levels today. Sickening.

Doug's tweet is tongue and cheek, people..he's not worried. Just like daniel isn't worried, even if he loses 2 million..

In fairness, DN said more than that. He said also that he didn't think he had any bluffs at all there there and thus that he wasn't getting called by anything less than A5. He also said he and his team would work through that hand specifically because it may have been a big mistake.

Doug believes that he is a big favorite and will be literally backing up a truck to fill it with DN's money. Hence "truck driver" Polk.

Doug is delusional, makes stupid mistakes vs opponent at hand and generally a major bully, hope he loses just for the lols.

Indeed he's a tool and probably nowhere near as good at poker as many people think..his strategy videos are about as banal as humanely possible..

Has there been any word about the DN and Doug releasing HHs after the match is done?

Fee is hard to watch. His commentary does not set context well.

Remember folks, keep telling yourself it’s only variance when DNegs is winning.

Where's best recap vids?

I agree, there was a stretch of the stream where chat lobby was blowing Chewy and Fee up for being GTO/Solver nerds and just rambling about one mediocre hand for like 15min. In that same time frame I am pretty sure the general lamen poker player rather hear about a 2M2M story from chewy or something else.

omg and i thought i was the only one thinking that, i thought thats so obv lol regardless of whats he saying now

Yea GG stream is a lot better.
Fee and Chewy did not sound confident at all in talking about close spots.
They would often disagree on a spot but then just drop it neither feeing comfortable enough to say anything with any degree of certainty.
Even when they ran the sim on AQ v Q9 hand they weren’t able to explain anything well at all.
Just rambling about stuff they didn’t seem to have good understanding of.

Was kind of surprising how bad it was. Makes Kaki look very good going back to GG stream.

WSOP does not have HH apparently

Also for all you psychologists that think DNegs will quit early I will take the other side for infinite money. Either put up or shut.

lol did you even look at some of the hands from the last session? Not a big fan of either of them, but Negreanu coolered the **** out of him ...