Two weeks of studying followed by 2 years to complete the challenge, sure, that makes sense. Daniel admit it, you love trolling 2+2 don't you?

Well, those highstakers have v fast scripts + they are europe based so unless daniel gets a v fast script and plays from isle of man he will still not get desired seats. So bumhunting on his part will be almoast impossible and even if he gets a good seat there are 4 other regs who r most likely signigicantly +ev vs him. But even with this approach i think its unlikely he could ever play a (somewat) meaningful sample - lets take teh 50k hands forsimplicity reasons and i dont think 50k is v meaningful online...

Bet could easily be done at zoom. He can even one table it, has alot of time to make his decisions and gets 1k hands in 4hours. Which means in 200hours he would have a sample and u could see if he beats online highstakes or not. Somehow i doubt tis scenario is happening though.

For something like a 6 month timeframe id bet some money but having my money locked away for 1-2years does not sound appealing to me...

This actually makes the bet harder than playing them in a limited timeframe I think (of course I'm a microstakes donk so I have no idea what I am talking about): the guys who beat 25/50 apart from a select few don't do anything else but 6 max 100b poker and they play each other alll the time, they get a feel for the game and its rapid evolution that you would miss in this situation. For exemple, let's say Month 1 you put 5 sessions of 2k hands each but Month 2 and 3 you cannot play because they are good games/tournaments etc... You review the sessions, work on the maths and then you have to adjust to play lolliveaments. 2months later, the 25/50 regs have improved, they've changed some things about their games (for the better) and you have no longer the feel for these games you had at the end of month 1.

Am I completely off base here?

Daniel, just a thought, doubt you care about my opinion but as such a public-facing person I think if your plan is to really angle this bet by doing extreme bumhunting (which is really against the sentiment of "beating 25-50" when most people willing to bet against you are doing so because of how they gauge the 25-50 regulars' skills vs yours, not the occasional fish that wanders into the HS pool), I'm not sure that winning a million is worth it to you when it would really diminish how people view you.

On the other hand, if your plan is to sit down and face anyone who wants to play at any time you're able to (i.e. in Canada), then go for it. But as someone who has built so much of their career on their reputation, I don't think bumhunting to win this bet is worth it

I don't agree with that at all. A lot of studying is work put in off the tables. Playing is only a part of it, especially if you are a "number and stats guy" as you said you were. And it might not deter people from betting (since I won't be betting it's not for me to decide) but it changes the conditions of the challenge, though apparently we disagree on that.

FYI, I'd be excited to see a challenge go through in whichever form.

Daniel is a live player, "bumhunting" in live games is something absolutely obvious and is not frowned upon.

1. The 2 week part of this wager discussion should be removed. It's already been a month, and based on a one year time to finish the study/adjust time has nothing to do with 2 weeks.

2. How many of the top 25/50 regs would be winners if they only played against the other top five players? Stop with the bumhunting taking anything away from this bet. Game selection is as much of a component of win rate as GTO.

3. Many of posters ITT seem to make it sound like beating 25/50 is easy if you play on your own schedule. Why aren't those posters 25/50 regs? (Some are...speaking about the majority). Don't have the bankroll? You may want to consider where Dnegs' bankroll comes from. Built it playing poker.

4. Would love to see some action on this just because it will be fun to watch. Also because Dnegs would undoubtedly share thoughts during the challenge.

5. I'll bet $1 Pokerstars Nevada is coming in November. 2-1 before November 10th.

Some of the posters in this thread need to switch to decaf.

Here's why Daniel won't do the bet. If he wins, he gets a million + his profit from the HS games. So basically a small payday for someone like DN.

If he loses, millions of people realize he's not actually that good at HSNL cash and start losing respect/interest in him. Maybe some of his endorsements stop wanting to shell out cash to him. The loss of publicity that would potentially come from that could be HUGELY -EV for someone like Daniel. I'm sure his publicist and agent would kidnap him and throw him in the back of a truck before they let him take a bet like this.


Obviously he can't beat 25/50 on stars either, but I don't think he knows that.

All of this is a mute point. You made a statement you'd never be willing to back up, what's the point? Maybe you could do it, but you're unwillingness to leave your home, like i said before makes it ridiculous that you claimed this... you ARE in fact drawing dead, you won't ever do it.

Some posters have very little real world perspective. The world doesn't revolve around your insider view of high stakes online. Claiming DNegs reputation or sponsorship deals would suffer from a bet that was never articulated and agreed upon is ridiculous. Be careful not to confuse your own thoughts and feelings with those of the general public or poker community.

Hey Dnegs you gonna play any WCOOP?

Edit - Posts like the one below make me cringe hard

I wish Negs would shut up and apologize to the HSNL Community for acting like a complete buffoon. 50,000 hands in a YEAR? Is this a joke? 50,000 hands in a year is what a live grinder puts in. 50,000 hands is what an online grinder plays in a month. What a joke.

Just further proof that Negs is a cash game fish when it comes to HSNL. Stick to what you're best at, crushing tournament donkeys and stealing that pokerstars cash.

harsh, still agree that 50k hands in 1 year/2 years(lol) is a complete joke

stealing pokerstars cash is a stupid accusation, people get paid for doing their job, that's not stealing lol

What exactly is Daniel's job at pokerstars?

Advertising and endorsement.

The fkk do you care anyway? It's not like Amaya Gaming is going to give you money if they don't fire him.

This is such nonsense. Where exactly do you think the payment for Daniel's endorsements come from? It comes from the rake paid by the players.

From what to what? No conditions or no parameters were ever set at any point. I simply sent an @reply to a dude who called me a dolt saying I'd bet a million with two weeks of practice before starting the bet. If a bet is made, then I would spend that two weeks preparing, then play the number of hands agreed upon in the time frame. There is no "condition" that isn't being met.

I posted parameters for a bet. If accepted and a million is raised, I will agree to it.

I will do it. I just posted parameters for what I would do. If you want to put up a million, or get a group together, I'll do it now. I'll start playing it in a few weeks while I'm in Australia for the WSOP APAC.

Mute point? Lol what exactly is a mute point?

Your parameters are a complete joke. Just apologize already.

Also, as an ambassador / promoter for pokerstars, why are you not in DC trying to overturn the UIGEA bill? It seems like you have the clout and charisma to buddy up to many people sitting in the house to change things. I mean, this is what pokerstars pays you for, isn't it?

It's a point made silently.

I'd call the part that specifies two weeks a "condition" or "parameter".

You totally miss the point. For any "condition" or "parameter" to be valid there has to be $1mil raised against his side of the bet. Sounds like he is open to terms, if serious money is willing to negotiate them.