Why? He never plays these games anyway thats kinda the point of his challenge :/

They would all spot him pretty quickly. He would need to change his name every day and even with that he would still be rode bareback

He'd fit right in w/ the status quo on Stars these days.

This sums it up pretty nicely !

Read an article a while back that said after 1 million hands (this is 6max nl obv) with an avg std dev, your true winrate can still differ by +-0.5bb/100
So yeah, if u want to know your winrate (at least kinda close estimation) i dont think any sample less than 500k is going to be enough

But overall 50k hands (unless you run really really bad or really really good) should give you an idea of how ur doing overall and if u are winning player.

Negreanu's graph will imo look like hansen's, just a steep dive line with little to no swings and even if he plays just ~50k hands with a winrate of lets say -15bb/100 it doesnt really matter if his true wr is -12 or -18, it just shows he is losing player without any doubt.

its not like he will be slightly losing or swonging up and down around b/e line.

Gus Hansen is "quite good". Unfortunately, that's not good enough. He's still an underdog to make money when the regs sit with him, and I'd expect the same to apply to Daniel.

As to why Gus hasn't moved down, no one but Gus seems to know the answer to that.
Maybe Gus will coach Daniel.

A poker player's ego. This would never happen.

Neither DN nor anyone interested in this prop is looking for his true winrate. We want a moderately decent sample for him to beat. It's a challenge, not a highly accurate analysis of DN's game. Saying it's pointless is seeing things as black and white.

Who do people think is better at NLH cash, Gus or Negreanu? From some of the old TV games I remember Gus playing much better.

If the 25/50 regs are so much better than DN, why are almost none of them world renowned millionaires like him? Not saying I disagree with you guys genuinely just curious .

Rich and world renowned are different things

lol@poker being a sport.

Because those two require different personal skill sets. It's quite simple really.

He would be a new reg. He doesn't play NL cash online ever. I'm sure the regs would move quickly to sit at his table.

How do you know they aren't? Danes gets the majority of his publicity from live televised tournaments, very few of the 25/50 NL regs play live tournaments.

Not massively though, I get his charisma and general like-ability is a massive plus for him in terms of getting sponsorships etc and so has led to his fame but I just mean from a pure poker standpoint why has he won so much more than these regs if he is so much worse? I'm not saying that he is or isn't just curious why? Is he just 100X better at tournament poker than these guys?

But isn't the challenge whether or not he's truly good enough to be a winning player? I know nobody needs his true winrate. The point is that nobody will actually know if he can beat the stakes unless he plays enough hands to where variance doesn't tremendously influence the outcome. Like I said 50k hands would be a fun gamble to sweat but that's about it.

Because they play completely different variants of poker? DNegs has played tournament poker for like 20 years, and it wasn't too long ago everyone assumed that he was way over the hill (before all of his recent success of course). Who is to say he wouldn't be another busto "pro" if poker stars hadn't made him one of the faces of their poker brand.

The 25/50 regs play the hardest NL games anywhere, and I guarantee not many of them took 20 years to get there, and most are smart enough to move on to other aspects of life and be successful after poker. Dnegs is not 100x better at anything, they just don't play tournaments because the money is honestly almost irrelevant. Sure, first place in a major tourney might be 1,000,000+, but that's only first. Why spend 4 days grinding out a tournament (only to come in something like 18th for 15,000), when a winning HS cash game player can make (tax less?) high 5 figures in that same time?

He must have improved quite a bit since then, but he certainly did make many, many horrible plays. And I´m not even talking about the well known hands. I´ve seen him call off like 20 % of his stack vs obv. Aces set minining, call huge reraises pre OOP with KJo etc etc. He did run unlucky at times, but he lost the absolute maximum in every single cooler and he certainly did make a lot of bad plays. Again, that´s probably not the DN of today, even though that KQ pay off made me think of DN on HSP.

It's generally understood that long term cash game success is much better for determining a players skill than tournament results, which are influenced to a great degree by how you run.

The fact he is the highest earning poker player of all time maybe? Who are these guys making 5 figures a week from? surely those players must be worse than DN?

While I agree that cash games have a higher level of skill involved in the long run, I don't think it's unfair at all to say he's won more then most those regs lol. Didn't he profit something like 10 million this year? I doubt many, if any at all of the actual 25/50 100bb (5k BI) regs have profited anything close to what Dnegs has.

If that's true than it's a pretty simple answer as to why he's won more: he's had a couple of serious hot years in tournament play over the years.

Agreed, but he's had a pretty long winning poker career so it's pretty safe to say he's one of the top tournament players regardless of run good.

Will get killed at 25/50 in anything longer then the short run.

PokerStars marketing department should jump on this opportunity and make it worth DN's time to leave Vegas for a few months. Surprised him in particular but also a few other online pro's dont have to live the brand more aka play more online poker as part of their contract.

Also if DN ever want to be a contender for true GOAT of poker, he need to beast up online poker as well to ever surpass Ivey. Probably a time window that's closing down for him age and skill wise, so seems like a good time for him to get help from some crushers and give his focus to actually beating a very though poker game, not games filled with businessmen and tourists.

Its quite ridiculous if he throw this around on twitter, insulting lots of the best players on PokerStars if he dont put money where his mouth is. Then it seems like he just want to be the new Hellmuth/Matusow.

How much TV time do 25/50 online regs get? If you want to be well renowned you have to play live donkaments. Do you think WCG plays donkaments because he thinks it will make him more money than playing nosebleeds online? No, he doesn't, he wants notoriety and fame so he can get a sweet Stars deal like Daniel.

Fwiw, a lot of the live donkament guys that are considered to be "renowned millionaires" are hundreds of thousands of dollars in make up. (not saying Daniel is because he is A.) Smart and B.) one of the best live donkament players out there)