Quote:
Originally Posted by lozen
Interesting article from Maclean's saying what a terrible job the Federal government and provinces are doing .
It asks the question which I ask of JT
If Climate Change requires a federal mandate why not Covid?
If by interesting, you mean interesting that Maclean's would publish such trash, I agree.
To support the statement that "It is an objective fact we are doing a terrible job fighting the virus.", the primary piece of evidence that is used is a report by the Lowy Institute. I found it here:
https://interactives.lowyinstitute.o...ountry-compare
Scrolling down, I found the ranking he referred to. Most of the countries above Canada are in Asia or Africa, but the one that struck me right away when I saw it was Sweden. Well, I know that Sweden has been touted by some because it kept most things open, but I also know their case and death numbers have not been good. I guess for Sweden to be ranked ahead of us, they must be factoring in economic performance, so I scroll back to find what they base their data on. Nope, nothing on economics - it's all based on cases, deaths, and tests.
Quote:
Fourteen-day rolling averages of new daily figures were calculated for the following indicators:
Confirmed cases
Confirmed deaths
Confirmed cases per million people
Confirmed deaths per million people
Confirmed cases as a proportion of tests
Tests per thousand people
An average across those indicators was then calculated for individual countries in each period and normalised to produce a score from 0 (worst performing) to 100 (best performing).
Puzzling, then, that Sweden would rank ahead of us since they have more than double our death rate, almost triple our case rate, and only a 5% higher testing rate. Puzzling, that is, until you have a good look at that list. They count cases and deaths per capita AND total cases and deaths.
What. The. ****???
So, shocker, if you're a smaller country, then the numbers will be heavily skewed in your favour. That would be mitigated a bit on the testing side, where smaller numbers are worse - but they only used per capita numbers on tests, not overall tests (as they should have for deaths and cases). I don't know if the Lowy Institute has some kind of agenda they're trying to push with the data compilation, or if someone actually thought this makes sense, but either way this report seems pretty suspect at best.
Let's look at another of the author's claims:
"He (hopefully) knows that Canada’s COVID numbers are terrible—objectively worse than almost all peer countries, and heading in the wrong direction."
He doesn't say what he means by peer countries, but this is something I've looked at often, and that's what drove me to examine this Lowy report, because I've always had the impression that we're doing pretty well among the western world. To determine that, I have a pretty simple test - compare us to Europe. Piece of cake to do on Worldometer. I feel that's a pretty good assessment of our peer countries - those that are most similar to us in terms of government and society. Of course the US would be the other comparable, but I think we all know how that would look. So if we look at Europe, there are two metrics I compare. In cases per capita, we would be 43rd out of 49 countries (IE one of the lowest number of cases). In deaths per capita, 34th out of 49. If we remove the very smallest countries/principalities (<1 million) because they provide a lot of outliers on either end, we would be 33/36 in cases and 27/36 in deaths. Testing is something I don't look at that often; we would be a little below average there - 30/49.
So, "objectively worse than almost all peer countries"? Um, no. Not even close. I'd actually argue that we're doing objectively
better than most peer countries. And that might be what irritates me most about this article - the misuse of "objective" and "objectively". The author is trying to tell us that his opinion isn't based on some bone he has to pick with the government - it's based on data! And it is - really bad data.
And the article is pretty devoid of any great solutions that we've missed out on. Canada's apparently doing a terrible job, but the author isn't able to articulate how so in any substantial way. The main focus seems to be on a centralized approach, but without much substance in terms of what that would look like or how it would help.
"Canadians are still moving from province to province, largely unhindered" - has that been found to be a large vector of transmission? I've not seen any data suggesting that it is.
"If the Prime Minister did implement a national strategy, he could then hire some of the million Canadians currently unemployed, and finally launch an effective test and trace program country-wide." - Canada's numbers would seem to reflect that testing and tracing is working pretty well.
"He could compel domestic drug manufacturers to retool and start producing more vaccines." - I, um, wait, what? How are we going to suddenly produce vaccines that we haven't created? If Pfizer or Moderna would be agreeable to one of our drug companies producing their vaccine, that would be great, but I don't know if that's realistic or even possible. I sort of doubt it, especially in any kind of time frame that would be helpful.
"He could, like U.S. President Joe Biden, use the national defence forces to set up regional vaccination centres." - maybe there's some merit here, I'm not sure. I don't have the impression that we're going to need any such help here in BC, but maybe it would be useful elsewhere.
None of this is to say all is roses and no mistakes have ever been made here. And there are lots of comparisons we could do that would not be as flattering. For example, Asian countries are kicking our ass. As are Australia and New Zealand, which would also be good examples of peer countries, although they likely benefit from being islands. But that should be a bigger "why are Asian/Oceanian countries doing so much better than the 'western world' " question. How we can improve PPE manufacturing and vaccine development for the future would also be legitimate questions to pursue. And what about the economy? What measures work, and which ones causes economic hardship with little pandemic benefit?
To me, this editorial reads like it's written by someone with a big axe to grind with government who tracked down some data he thought would back up his conclusions. It doesn't. In fact, it contradicts them.