Quote:
Originally Posted by theb00radley
I'm far from being a luckbox, and it's far from being standard. Yes maybe it happens all the time to somebody somewhere, but then so does getting run over by a car. Do you consider that standard?
You get dealt aces on average once every 221 hands.
Assuming you ran into a smaller pair everytime which you don't the odds of losing 6 in a row is 15625-1.
So for every 3453125 hands played (221 x 15625) it will on average happen at least once.
For somebody it could happen in their first 10000 hands, while somebody else might have to play 10 million before it happens, but on average it would happen every 3.4 million hands for each person. As most people won't even play close to that number of hands in their lifetime I expect most people will never have it happen to them.
I, in my fr1st pr0st, contest your interpretation of the odds. The chance of having all six of a
set of six pocket aces be cracked by a lower pocket pair is 15,625:1. The probability of being dealt a pocket pair is approximately 5.9% or 16:1 against. Therefore in a 9-handed ring game, when you are dealt AA, the chance that exactly one of your opponents has a pocket pair is approximately 3.8% or 24:1. The chance that two opponents have a pocket pair is, ~0.2% or ~500:1, which can be safely neglected. So, for one in every 221 hands, you'll be dealt AA. For every 25 of those, your opponent will be dealt a smaller pocket pair. Thus, one will have AA against a smaller pocket pair about once in every 5500 hands.
That should happen six times after around 33,000 hands. Now, the fun part. Statistically, in order for you to take AA against any inferior pair six times and have it cracked every time... you'd have to play over half-a-billion hands.
For perspective, let's say I'm 12-tabling at 100 hands/hour. To play half a billion hands... to have AA cracked six consecutive times by another pair... I'd have to sit here playing constantly until the year 2055. If I wanted to take the more conservative route, 12 hour days, it'd take me into
the 22nd century.
(I sure hope I got all that math right.)
So, in conclusion, if the OP can provide some sort of solid evidence that he had AA cracked six-consecutive times, I would be forced to conclude that FTP is rigged, barring some ancillary computation.
So I challenge thee, Mr. Selection-Bias the Conspiracy Theorist, to provide some hand history. Hell, I'd take six times you had AA cracked by another pocket pair, period.