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 07-23-2008, 11:12 AM #101 nerdking veteran     Join Date: Mar 2006 Location: saying bad things to worse people Posts: 2,592 Re: Is Full Tilt rigged? more of who she is and what happened to her and less zomg paper bag time.
 07-23-2008, 12:10 PM #102 OMGsoRIGGED journeyman   Join Date: Jul 2008 Posts: 324 Re: Is Full Tilt rigged? the cake is rigged
07-23-2008, 03:50 PM   #103
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Re: Is Full Tilt rigged?

Quote:
 Originally Posted by OMGsoRIGGED ok well just let me point out some blaring miscalculations you performed although the chances are approximately 1 in 214 to get any pocketpair you are doing your calculatons in that before the cards are even dealt the chances of you having those 6 instances happen in a row (without winning any by not getting called with a worse hand becuase your oppents seem to have figured out how to throw away a losing hand) you also made the calculations based upon having it litteraly happen six hands in a row i dobut you had absolutely no other hands (win or lose) in between these losing hands but as soon as you look down at those pocket aces you have a far better chance to lose with them than just doing the numbers of the probiblity of you getting them and losing before the cards are even dealt SO AS SOON AS YOU SEE THE PAIR OF ACES YOUR ODDS OF LOSING ARE STILL THERE (i might add that any ace always seems to have the amazing ability to make bad players play worse which must be magic) The chance of losing to a another pocket pair with aces is 1/5 so 6 times in row = 5 to the 6th = 1 in 15625 now does that seem impossible? you also forget that much like roulette the past outcomes have no effect on the future out comes because if the past outcomes DID effect the future outcomes it WOULD be rigged i know it must seem complicated to you but as soon as you see your pocket pair the odds of anyone else at the table getting a pocket pair go up to about 5.8% per player because that just the way the numbers work so if you feel those cards are rigged and that a 50%+ preflop win rateing even against 2 or more other players is just not enough feel free to muck em you won't see me complaining
It's not the fact that it's over 15000-1 that makes this so freakishly unlikely, it's the sheer number of hands you would have to see on average for it to happen.

My own flawed calculation came up with about 3.5 million hands, but somebody else came up with figure in the billions. Even though 15000-1 is not that great of a longshot, it's the length of time it would take on average for that sequence of events to play out, which is longer than the majority of people will ever play in their entire life.

Of course, as I mentioned before it could happen to somebody in a short number of hands early on in their playing time, in which case that person could rightly claim to be extremely unlucky.

 07-23-2008, 05:38 PM #104 case sensitive banned     Join Date: May 2008 Location: touchdown Posts: 2,790 Re: Is Full Tilt rigged? yes these sites are rigged. If you don't believe it open up several accounts and watch 1 take off avoiding many badbeats while others lose or breakeven.
07-23-2008, 05:52 PM   #105
Markusgc
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Re: Is Full Tilt rigged?

Quote:
 Originally Posted by case sensitive yes these sites are rigged. If you don't believe it open up several accounts and watch 1 take off avoiding many badbeats while others lose or breakeven.
wow, in a thread full of idiocy this still manages to stand out. that's pretty much how variance works.
Quote:
 Originally Posted by theb00radley It's not the fact that it's over 15000-1 that makes this so freakishly unlikely, it's the sheer number of hands you would have to see on average for it to happen
you don't have to see all those hands yourself - they're being dealt all the time at other tables. If it's a 15000-1 shot it means that 1 hand out of 15000 will have that anomaly. That doesn't mean it has to be 1 out or your 15000, as long as it's statistically in line with that figure over a large enough sample size, ie if it happens 3x over 30000 hands that's not too odd - it should even out over the long run. So until the theorists can show data proving otherwise that's all they are - theories.
Quote:
 Of course, as I mentioned before it could happen to somebody in a short number of hands early on in their playing time, in which case that person could rightly claim to be extremely unlucky.
I have had unlucky things happen, but I understand that's all it is: luck. For better or for worse, these things happen. Again, I don't think the poker sites have any idea who I am, much less a reason to cheat me out of my monies. If they're trying to, they're doing a poor job of it.

Last edited by Markusgc; 07-23-2008 at 06:22 PM.

07-23-2008, 07:52 PM   #107
s0crates
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Re: Is Full Tilt rigged?

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Markusgc you don't have to see all those hands yourself - they're being dealt all the time at other tables. If it's a 15000-1 shot it means that 1 hand out of 15000 will have that anomaly. That doesn't mean it has to be 1 out or your 15000, as long as it's statistically in line with that figure over a large enough sample size, ie if it happens 3x over 30000 hands that's not too odd - it should even out over the long run. So until the theorists can show data proving otherwise that's all they are - theories.
You're confusing the probabilities again. The chance that, having shown down AA vs. 99 or something six consecutive times, that AA will have lost each time is 1 in 15625. But, in order to even see AA against a lower pair, the odds against are 1 in 5500. So, in order to see AA vs. lower pair six times, you'd have to statistically play around 33,000 hands. In order, statistically, to see it happen six consecutive times, you'd need about half-a-billion hand.

Note, also, that if 15,625 people have each played 33,000 hands, there's a very reasonable chance that one of them has had AA cracked six times by a lower pair. Odds are, also, that he's complaining on 2+2.

 07-23-2008, 08:15 PM #108 NoLimitLeagues old hand     Join Date: May 2006 Posts: 1,674 Re: Is Full Tilt rigged? its so funny that the majority of 2p2ers act like its impossible that the sites rig their RNGs. anyone who thinks every single site has a legit RNG is a complete moron.
07-23-2008, 08:16 PM   #109
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Re: Is Full Tilt rigged?

Quote:
 Originally Posted by nerdking you know what this thread needs? photoshop. and boobies. someone get on that.

Why not, for all the rigged 'nuts'

http://Nuts.co.uk

07-23-2008, 08:21 PM   #110
Devilboy666
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Re: Is Full Tilt rigged?

Quote:
 Originally Posted by NoLimitLeagues its so funny that the majority of 2p2ers act like its impossible that the sites rig their RNGs. anyone who thinks every single site has a legit RNG is a complete moron.
Would you like to make a bet then?

I'll bet you even money that neither you nor anyone else can find a single poker site with more than 1000 currently active real-money players with an unfair / rigged RNG before the end of this year.

07-23-2008, 08:21 PM   #111
NoLimitLeagues
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Re: Is Full Tilt rigged?

Quote:
 Originally Posted by OMGsoRIGGED the cake is rigged
played cake for 11 months, they started rigging their RNG about 2-3 months ago. i am 100% certain. played over 2000 sngs/mtts during those 3 months. played over 10,000 sng/mtts total on cake. been playing online poker for 5 years now. the small sites do whatever is necessary to make money. there will be a big scandal in the next year from a whistleblower that proves that the RNGs are rigged on many of the sites.

remember all the idiots on 2p2 that said its impossible for sites to have superusers that can see your hole cards.

Quote:
 I'll bet you even money that neither you nor anyone else can find a single site with more than 1000 currently active real-money players with an unfair / rigged RNG before the end of this year.
better yet, why dont you or someone else prove to us that they arent rigged. hmmmmmm

07-23-2008, 09:21 PM   #112
Markusgc
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Re: Is Full Tilt rigged?

Quote:
 Originally Posted by s0crates You're confusing the probabilities again. The chance that, having shown down AA vs. 99 or something six consecutive times, that AA will have lost each time is 1 in 15625. But, in order to even see AA against a lower pair, the odds against are 1 in 5500. So, in order to see AA vs. lower pair six times, you'd have to statistically play around 33,000 hands. In order, statistically, to see it happen six consecutive times, you'd need about half-a-billion hand. Note, also, that if 15,625 people have each played 33,000 hands, there's a very reasonable chance that one of them has had AA cracked six times by a lower pair. Odds are, also, that he's complaining on 2+2.
dude, I'm not confusing any probabilities. my example is for any situation that is 1/15000 or 1/33000 or 1/100000. my point is the same regardless - this event will happen the with the same frequency whether you are at the table or not.
Quote:
 Originally Posted by NoLimitLeagues better yet, why dont you or someone else prove to us that they arent rigged. hmmmmmm
you've got this all wrong, buddy. there's a saying - "the burden of proof is on the accuser." If you're "100% sure" then please show us what convinced you, and your "feeling" doesn't count.

and the bold part is pretty gay. I'm 100% sure of that.

07-23-2008, 09:29 PM   #113
Devilboy666
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Re: Is Full Tilt rigged?

Quote:
 Originally Posted by NoLimitLeagues better yet, why dont you or someone else prove to us that they arent rigged. hmmmmmm
I can do that. How much are we going to bet?

07-23-2008, 09:39 PM   #114
s0crates
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Re: Is Full Tilt rigged?

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Markusgc dude, I'm not confusing any probabilities. my example is for any situation that is 1/15000 or 1/33000 or 1/100000. my point is the same regardless - this event will happen the with the same frequency whether you are at the table or not.
You are right in concept, wrong in math. While Stars has dealt nearly 10 billion hands, for these probabilistic purposes they've dealt closer to 90 billion... 9 player ring games. It's also not very statistically interesting, unless you happen to have the histories on every hand they've ever dealt.

07-23-2008, 09:45 PM   #115
Markusgc
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Re: Is Full Tilt rigged?

Quote:
 Originally Posted by s0crates You are right in concept, wrong in math.
I'm only dealing in the concept. If I had every single hand history since Stars opened then I reckon these figures would be pretty darned close to the statistical norm. If I get 'em, I'll forward them to you for the math part, ok?

 07-23-2008, 10:10 PM #116 5thStreetHog Carpal \'Tunnel     Join Date: Sep 2006 Posts: 7,687 Re: Is Full Tilt rigged? "they started rigging their RNG about 2-3 months ago. i am 100% certain" Let me guess,this is when you started losing more?Also,i guess you dont know what 100% or the word certain means.When you say such idiotic things how do you expect people not to think your an idiot??To be fair,im sure most believed you were an idiot before that,but thats besides the point. "better yet, why dont you or someone else prove to us that they arent rigged. hmmmmmm" Once again i refer you to the part above about saying idiotic things.I cant prove youre not a monkey but that doesnt mean you might be a monkey.Wait,bad example.
07-23-2008, 10:22 PM   #117
questions
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Re: Is Full Tilt rigged?

Quote:
 Originally Posted by NoLimitLeagues remember all the idiots on 2p2 that said its impossible for sites to have superusers that can see your hole cards.
Yep. That's exactly right. "They would never risk it." "Reputation is everything, they'd never do it." "Not in a million years, gosh no!"

And I'll say what I said in the other now-deleted "thread. Which is,

During the initial stages of the Absolute poker scam, people were caught off-guard, and many said, "you know, if the sites wanted to rig the games with in-house superusers, they actually could do it AND NOBODY WOULD EVER KNOW!"

Well, duh, then if so, then I guess that's probably what at least some of them have done. Why not? If nobody would ever know, and if there are people in business who are unscrupulous, then duh, they'll do it, probably.

 07-23-2008, 10:28 PM #118 Markusgc Carpal \'Tunnel     Join Date: Feb 2006 Location: Noodles, Hockey & Punk Rock! Posts: 8,788 Re: Is Full Tilt rigged? What is the motivation for these posters? Do they just want people to agree with them, or do they genuinely feel they are doing humanity a good turn? I strongly suspect some carnival games are rigged so I simply choose not to play them. I don't troll Ring Toss/Milk Bottle Websites trying to point that out to the rubes who are still getting taken.
07-23-2008, 10:35 PM   #119
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Re: Is Full Tilt rigged?

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Markusgc What is the motivation for these posters? Do they just want people to agree with them, or do they genuinely feel they are doing humanity a good turn? I strongly suspect some carnival games are rigged so I simply choose not to play them. I don't troll Ring Toss/Milk Bottle Websites trying to point that out to the rubes who are still getting taken.
I want to play a fair game, that's all.

07-23-2008, 10:37 PM   #120
s0crates
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Re: Is Full Tilt rigged?

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Markusgc I strongly suspect some carnival games are rigged so I simply choose not to play them. I don't troll Ring Toss/Milk Bottle Websites trying to point that out to the rubes who are still getting taken.
Well, you might if there were a \$10,000,000 Guaranteed World Championship of Ring Toss.

07-23-2008, 10:40 PM   #121
Devilboy666
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Re: Is Full Tilt rigged?

Quote:
 Originally Posted by questions I want to play a fair game, that's all.
How exactly is crying 'wolf' gonna achieve that for you?

07-23-2008, 10:41 PM   #122
questions
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Re: Is Full Tilt rigged?

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Markusgc What is the motivation for these posters? Do they just want people to agree with them, or do they genuinely feel they are doing humanity a good turn? I strongly suspect some carnival games are rigged so I simply choose not to play them. I don't troll Ring Toss/Milk Bottle Websites trying to point that out to the rubes who are still getting taken.
On a side note, before the muckrakers, people were at higher risk of eating tainted meat products. See "The Jungle".

And while I don't consider making comments about online poker to an internet bulletin board as anything even approaching muckraking, it's better than doing nothing.

07-23-2008, 10:41 PM   #123
Markusgc
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Re: Is Full Tilt rigged?

Quote:
 Originally Posted by questions I want to play a fair game, that's all.
Then find one, play it and do so quietly. If you know or suspect that one isn't don't play it. Quietly, I add again.

I don't go to Christian Discussion Forums to tell them that the bible is a book of fairy tales. I disagree with the business of religion so I just don't spend my money in churches.

07-23-2008, 10:42 PM   #124
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Re: Is Full Tilt rigged?

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Devilboy666 How exactly is crying 'wolf' gonna achieve that for you?
See my response above (we posted at the same time).

07-23-2008, 10:44 PM   #125
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Re: Is Full Tilt rigged?

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Markusgc Then find one, play it and do so quietly. If you know or suspect that one isn't don't play it. Quietly, I add again. I don't go to Christian Discussion Forums to tell them that the bible is a book of fairy tales. I disagree with the business of religion so I just don't spend my money in churches.
That's a remarkable attitude. There are sites where a sufficient amount of data collected thus far demonstrates that it is probable that something fishy is going on, and your response (I presume) would be to say nothing? Is that correct?

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