Come on guys, pokerdefender TOLD us 30 times how good he is at poker. Why can’t you accept he’s betting than us all instead of wanting to see results as well

well that was an interesting read, likely wrong about the RNG though, just a result of a lot more folding especially preflop

also I’m only rated 1.1k at blitz chess, still a beginner, be nice with me

I was grandmaster at starcraft though so I must be some sort of genius right!?!?

Strange that OP is not posting winnings per stake?
Would be so easy to prove...

Maybe he is a liar and only plays 2NL (must be with this redline)

Amazing thread

fwiw I'm winning at about 9bb/100 at 10/25nl fast fold with a graph that look's like OP's. I think the graph is a lot less damning than editing out the dollar amounts

I am not trying prove anything about myself. It happens to be 3 limits in one 10nl, 30 nl mostly, and some 50 nl games. I have it mixed partially to hide who I am. Not sure why people think I am trying to prop my skills up.
This is not about me. I don't care if you think I am a fish or a good player. Just think about what I am saying about stars cash games. I got a 2200 blitz rating at chess. That alone should tell anyone here with half a brain that I am pretty good at games.

try playing 1 milion hands on .com and then post graph
your complaint is ridiculous on many levels

It is not ridiculous, the fact is a lot of pros have been conditioned to think that these lulls of action on online cash games are normal variance. I do not believe this is so. I am quite aware that you can have 300,000 hands or more and be break even by the accepted norms. However after seeing the contrast in live game cash game hands and online cash game hands, i think this is all total BS. I have played well over 1 million hands on joker stars cash games btw
The difference in online player types vs live players types does not explain such a "ridiculously" huge contrast. Did any of you see my chess ratings. Do you really think you are that above me in games. I would guess the average chess rating you guys have is about 1,000 at best. Don't get condescending with me. You guys are a largely a bunch of fools to have let stars screw you over for so long.

How was your childhood as a totally nerd without any friends (accept maybe the nerdy chess teacher)?
Were you bullied all the time?
Have never seen someone like you with such less self confidence...

I am sorry for you...

One important hint I can give you: Nearly nobody in the world is interested in chess ratings. Try to be empathic if you want to find people who talk to you (and stop telling everyone you are a chess nerd)

show us

To prove you are totally wrong with your theory about pokerstars:

I have 1179539 hands in my database.


These are hands at showdown:


These are the probabilities for different hands at showdown:


So we do some math:
Straight flush 1179539/57 = 20693:1
Four of a kind 1179539/298 = 3958:1
Full House 272:1
Flush 212:1
Straight 180:1


As you can see I got these combinations more often online as the probabilities tell me.


If you see it more often in a casino then you are the stupid one as you do not get that your casino is cheating all the time to create big pots.

One other calculation for you fish:
You said there are 250 hands per hour in your casino.
So there should be e.g. "4 of a kind" once in every 16,6h of play.

Its so funny you blame pokerstars to cheat and tell everyone you are the only one who knows it BUT in reality you are the fish who gets cheated in a local casino and does not get it.

So funny...

also 150 k hands is not enough, i think you should consider 1 mill hands enough sample

These charts are all correct it appears, thank you for using your mind.
However what you people do not realize is that in casino live poker cash games, you are seeing propper variance spikes. The actual variance will not look like these charts unless millions of hands are played.
What you see in the casino, for example, on roulette games sometimes, and no that unsual, ask any dealer of the game, is 18 reds in a row, sometimes close to 30 blacks in a row etc. These things also happen with big hands in cards, so we go through periods where there are tons of boats, quads and straight flush.
Any one here who has played at live cash games, with high hand bonus running at a casino, knows what I am saying is true, if you think about it. When you get quad fives early in a 1 hour high hand bonus for $500, are you feeling confident that a better quad will not beat yours in an hour? Of course not, you are worried the whole time about losing the $500 to a better quad, at least if you are someone who cares about winning the money. We all know how often bigger quads and even a straight flush hands comes in normal variance.
In high hand bonus I see straight flush get beat by straight flush all the time. I have seen two Royal Flush in the same hour, two quad Aces in an hour not that rare. When is the last time you saw anything likes this from any player on stars cash game tables, and I assume most of us are playing at least 6 to 15 tables per hour.
Of course sometimes in casinos we see the opposite, we do see periods where 3 hours go by, on occasion, and no one can hit a quad, but these things happen with some regularity either way, on stars the lack of these big variance spikes in their cash games is very easy to show, and you all know the feeling of sitting there for hours without anyone really hitting any major heaters or coolers when playing on stars cash games. This lack if large variance spikes of heaters and coolers is a very obvious contrast to how stars cash games play as compared to live cash games with real cards that are truly playing random.
Sure Stars cash games will look good on paper to the people just looking at the charts you show, but the problem is they platy way too rigidly to those charts WITHOUT the big spikes where you would be getting lots of coolers and heaters. This is how they get away with it for so long. I do not believe that stars, sets people up to win or lose, but what it does is makes the games have so few huge variance spikes, that the games are effectively NERFED, yet if we look at the statistics, they will adhere to the charts. But in the short run there should be a lot of huge spikes of variance, as we see during the high hand bonus, and we simply do not see this on stars, except maybe 1 day in 100 or something absurd like that. Yes on very rare occasions we get these big heaters on stars but they happen very rare, and that is not how normal variance works with real cards. Those charts are what happens over millions of hands over time, you should not be seeing that ever 250 hands on a regular bases because of real variance, not joker stars nerfed variance.

With poker stars cash games, the variance follows the charts you showed with too little variation. Those charts are 100 percent correct it appears from first glance. Easy to figure out the math. 52x51/2 etc then we just look at this number divided by the possible combinations, a child can do most poker math. Those charts are demonstrably true, however as we know there are BIG spikes in variance, and that is something that I noticed does not happen on Poker Stars Cash games, however it happens in their tournament games.

Next time you play at a casino, pay attention to how many big hands there are per hour that qualify as potential high hand bonus winners. You will see what I am saying is true.
The problem is Stars cash games follow this math without huge variance spikes in short periods of times. I had considered that it might be a flaw in their system for generating random numbers, but how could it make such variance that is so different and small compared to live cash games if not intentional?
But what really makes it clear that this is nefarious on stars part, is that the poker stars tournament cards run normal and DO have the same kind of big hands I see in live cash games. Sure there is more short stack action in tournaments, but that does not come close to explaining the contrast in big hands between the cash and tournament hands.

I am not bothered by the insults if someone is thinking about this subject, as some of you are. I actually greatly appreciate your thoughtful, and for the most part astute reply, and I mean that sincerely. Thank you, as there are mostly intelligent people here.
The fact that you are not all instantly agreeing with me is a sign you are mostly smart players. Most fish would just agree with me, and say yeah man stars is rigged. Those fish who complain about bad beats are part of the reason it is hard to bring up what is wrong with stars cash games, but the way the fish complain about online poker, also makes a big smoke screen so that smart players do not look at the forest for the trees.
I believe that if the more intelligent among you think about what I am saying in an open minded way, then you will see what I am saying is absolutely correct.

I am not comparing myself to Einstei , but there are a lot of big realizations that have gone against many years of conventional thought through the history of math and science, and mostly they are met with high skepticism, as they should be, but also hostile and incredulous responses as well, even from many of the top minds of the day.
Poker Stars conniving CEOs count on this type of dogma continuing. Make no mistake, we are getting nerfed, and thereby screwed by poker stars, and it's time the poker community wakes up, even if you are making money currently, as I know you still easily can on stars cash games as a player has a sizeable edge, do not think it will always stay that way. If you do not stand up to the, and call them out as a community, things could get much worse, and you may find in the future, things are "adjusted" or nerfed in such a way that you can no longer make a living at this game. If you think it will not happen, then you have no idea how greedy and stupid some gaming CEOs can be.

We are getting screwed on their cash games. If you want I can show some of my pay outs on here, but I really do not want to because I want to stay incognito. I have made good money on stars cash games when we had a decent player pool, and even often with their shrinking pool here in the USA. In the USA only 5 states have legal poker, may be 6 now, and about half can only play within their own states.

You guys overseas are playing much bigger playing pools where your great skill edge and LAG style of play makes you winning players in many cases, no doubt. However, the necessity of LAG play in difficult online poker stars cash games, is also a large exploitative adjustment to the way poker stars cash games run, that is NERFED. Sure LAG is a very great style when played by a skilled player, but you have to take it to the extreme on Stars. After a while you can't see the big picture because of this adjustment to LAG.
It's all too obvious, by the fact that the big hand distribution are so way way off online cash games, compared to what we see in live cash games. Hope some of you will wake up and open your mind to this, because if you don't stars will do something worse in the future, and you could very well lose your income if you rely on online poker. Don't way you were not warned.

Actually I'm good looking and girls like me, which is fortunate because I am not that great at socializing, and if I did not have some genetic advantages, I would probably be hopelessly alone.
I have never been super popular with guys as friends, except back when I used to be in the party scene, then I had tons of friends. I can make friends, but I find most people are simply too boring to tolerate for long.
The few friends I have are mostly people with high IQs, and or people who are kind to animals and help with our animal rescue projects. I am pretty honest and objective online, though of course far more private in my personal life.
I donate a lot of my money to animal rescue groups and paying for medical bills of injured birds and animals who have suffered abuse and neglect from humans.

I don't really care much about myself in that I am not religious and I do not believe that life has any objective meaning, I am afraid it's all probably all for nothing. Of course when you are in your early 20s you can laugh about that, as I did, but trust me, that will change fast.
I would like to live as happy and interesting a life as possible and so far I am pretty happy. I play chess for fun. I was mostly self taught, however I studied many many books on the subject.

You care about my chess rating, and you know you wish you had a high rating to brag about. One thing I know about poker players, most respect good game players, and especially chess players.

Chess is a waste of time however, though it does help with understanding life and games in some ways, so not a total waste, but the time required to compete is extreme. It is fun sometimes, though I don't really enjoy it much anymore. What I do like about chess is that it's a good way to put your ego up against someone else, I love playing against people like you, always fun to see you crushed.
Perhaps it is a bit sadistic, but I do like crushing the egos of chess players who think they are good. That being said I have had my ego crushed a few times, by a prodigy, though he became a Grand Master at 14, but still that was difficult seeing how much better he was than I am at chess, I am a good chess player, but there are people much better than I am. The ego crushing is part of what makes the game fun to me, and the combos sometimes are very beautiful.
I was a physics major too.
I do not care if people like me, I am happy with the few friends I have, and believe it or not, in the live poker world I am very well liked. I never speak about these things there. In fact in live poker, I generally do not talk about the game in any serious way. I like to fit in, because my belief is, it is good to fit in as that makes it easier to take money from people, as apposed to getting them all defensive by talking poker theory.
Where I do like most of the people I meet in poker, I am 100 percent committed to taking their money.
But thank you for all the kind words

Even 1M probably too little and very biased if based only on your own showdowns. E.g. the odds you make a straight flush at showdown include every possible hand you could be dealt, even low prob stuff like you have a 72o and end up having a straight flush at showdown, that you probsbly never realize since you'll fold hopefully pre

This is valid even for higher probability spots like you have a low pp that would make a set only by the river, but that you'll most likely never see bc given the action you'd have folded before.

Better to either get a larger database, maybe buy a 100M db or so, or at least do the calculation using your holdings and all boards that got to the river, regardless of whether you were in the hand or not by that time.

Cheers

Actually, the only game where the probabilities are guaranteed to match the real life are games where everyone on the table is forced to go all in pre and gamble in every hand. Hope anyone can prove me wrong on this

A nit who only opens AA and folds everything else faces a calling station who plays 100% of hands and never folds. Bankrolls are infinite. Regardless of who will be the big winner at this game, pretty sure the whale should make more straight flushes than the nit.

Everything you said is true, but does not account for the fact that poker stars cash games have almost static small degrees of variance spikes.
Also my VPIP is around 30, PFR is over 20 and 3 bet is around 5 to 7 depending on how many call stations at table.

Also I am not talking about my stats. I see the same thing happening to every player at all the tables I play.
I am nothing special as far as these results are concerned.

You habe too low of an IQ to understand to understand it - sorry, cannot explain it easier that even you would get it.

30/20/5 are very fishy stats even for 2NL - try to learn preflop charts.

There are crushers at the lowest micros, even at the .com pool, crushing it with big gaps between vpip and pfr and loose vpips. It might even be the most incentivized style, if pool is passive and won´t punish you/deny your equity. The 3bet seems a bit low tho.

Seta-beni played 31/25 at 100z, then 27/22 at 200z. Not the same gap/preflop passiveness but fairly loose nonetheless, and he crushed both limits.

Back to OP, I tend to think the only way your point can be proven is by buying a huge database, 100M hands or so, and then doing any study. A lifetime of hands by you wouldn´t be enough, and I´ll always be sceptical of players using "what they´re seeing" as any proof.

Why don´t you prove us wrong, and file a complaint at your gaming authority, then keep us updated. Or a lawsuit? Make stars close shop, and you'll do the whole community a big favor as cheaters must be busted anyway. It's just that, again, I think you'll fail in ths endeavour. But do it, better than coming here whining and complaining without any actual action. Less talk, more action

They work when people are folding too much. For the longest time I was playing about 24 vpip, 17 PFR and 6 percent 3 bet. That is how I got most of the graph I showed. However, because people at the lower stakes have a lot of sizing tells, I found out that I can open a wider range, up to 35 vpip and I can get them to fold by bluffing. The second chart I showed with the improved red line is a result of this.
Also the gap between VPIP and PFR works fine in the USA as an exploit. I realize that in Europe, they are often much closer together, but this is the USA. Players do not play as strong over here on average.

Leak tracker always says my stats are consistent of a solid winning player, though it sees the new LAG like VIPIP on the 35 range as not being a good VPIP for 6 ring, but as any LAG knows, you can open as wide as you would like if your opponents fold too much, and I prefer to be in late position and sometimes md position when opening wider range. I tend to bloat pots when I am out of position unless I have something very strong like A K s JJ +. When in position I have a much wider range for these situations.
I still open much tighter in EP than LP of course, in fact the only position I am not winning money is the SB and BB. I am about exploitative play. I play just about all styles. Depends on the table and players where I am. Though in general I play TAG, but I do get out of line when I can.

You are right in general against unknown players, for sure, however, for the games I am playing your comment does not take into account the exploitative adjustment you can make i.e. high spewy looking VPIP.
I have few leaks pre flop, I use poker tracker 4 to look for those details. I learnt a lot from SKY of Smart Poker Study about using Poker Tracker 4.
But, you guys do have a good understanding of many aspects of the game, maybe you will realize that I do as well. But I am still learning about LAG play.

And as most people know, poker math is pretty simple,but I do my homework. I was a physics math major, and I study a lot to improve. Can show you tons of hands I analyzed with Flopzilla as well. I might ask, how many of you actually do your poker homework? I mean real homework with pencil and paper? Of course anyone here with any math background knows that poker math is easy math, almost embarrassingly easy, but still has some beauty to it, and certainly still important to get fluent with it and be able to calculate these things over the board. Also notice that is one of our conversations in the background of the photo, so you know it is from me.
Does this look like I am someone who does not do my homework on this game? I am willing to bet I understand this game better than 99.9 percent of you here. Though perhaps there are more players here that do their homework and learn poker math. If so cool. But I am certainly a very smart player, and if I tell you there is something wrong, you should perhaps listen, because if you don't, you all may soon find that stars decides to do even worse to their cash game in the future. Do not say that you were not warned. Personally I am fine with crushing live cash games. Online poker for me was a great poker education, but would be nice if it played properly, and was not nerfed by the corporate scum at P stars. But hey, if you don't care about getting screwed over then fine. I will be just fine, just thought you might want to hear about it since it involves your money.

You don´t need to show how knowledgeable/smart you are OP, we don´t care really. If there is any wrongdoing by stars, send it to them, to their regulators, or just sue them.

You´re just attention whoring ITT anyway, don´t have anything else to say.

Good luck

In the last week you’ve made 50 posts on this thread, all obnoxiously long. Think how much money you could have made had you dedicated that time to winning 12bb/100 at the stake that definitely isn’t 2NL

Everyone going all in pre, is the onlytime where everyone is certain to realize their true equity of their preflop hand over time, unless they are true calling station maniacs that will not fold ever postflop. This is one of the arguments for jamming AK at times, since you miss about 2 thirds of the time, you may be forced to fold and will never realize the turn and river equity when the A and K hits. Of course opponents range, and pot odds are the deciding factors a lot of the time. The math is the same regardless of shoving or not however, but if we do not shove pre it is far more compex and things like implied odds also have to be taken into account. Though I get the point you're making.

Not so, you just need to wake up. I don't want or care about your attention. You don't even know who I am, so whatever you think of me is irrelevant. Problem is, a lot of you are unable to think outside the box, to put it kindly.
But believe it or not, I actually respect that you guys are resisting what I say, you should actually cause most people who say online poker is rigged are total fish, however this is that one in a million time, rough estimate lol, where that is not the case. But I have little faith in you all figuring that out, considering there are poker people, who are almost certainly smarter than I am,(though that almost certainly excludes the lot of you, sorry but true, but hey prove me wrong) have not yet figured out that stars cash games are nerfed, well it kind of reminds me of trying to convince all the obstinate physics minds of the time, that that there is no ether, and light is a constant c in inertial frames because time and space are relative .
This poker cash game nerfing is so obvious too, really pathetic. My only question is if it's intentional or not. It is possible it was a flaw, a happy accident for them, and not initially intentional, but they have to know by now.
The distribution will always look right for stars. But the lack of big spikes of variance with made hands is what the problem is. That is it in a nutshell. Nice thing about this forum is I was not 100 certain how they did it initially, but now I got, as I was forced to think about it more than I wanted to. I basically came on this site cause I am too lazy to do the work. Though the average person in general is so stupid, you would never convince a jury. Only way we can fix things is if real poker players start speaking up.

You are a stupid 2NL fish who gets cheated at a shady casino.
Your posts are ridiculous - everybody is laughing about you and you are the only one who does not notice.

I alteady proved that nothing is wrong with pokerstars - sorry your IQ is too low to understand this.

Either troll or paisting level stuff.