Man Youfaiil don't. Just don't. Plz ae?
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I like a turn check raise with QQ there for a number of reasons. First of all villain is very likely to have turned a bunch of equity despite us crushing the board. He has all the nut flush and sd+fd hands in his range (J
T
, J
9
, (J
8
), A
K
, A
J
, A
T
, K
T
, K
J
, possibly T
9
and T
8
) which actually turns out te be a decent number of Combes as well as the fact that we ate fairly likely to get the call from KK+ and stacks a nonnegligable percentage of the time on the river because we very well could be looked up given he probably thinks weplay T9s AJss AQ hh this way and nits don't fold much.
I think however we should consider check raising river? I think it's unlikely villains true range is 10% in the cutoff and he has a decent number of missed draws in his range too.
Say if we jam all busto draws fold, and KK+ calls 8/12 combos and J9ss (we win 8 stacks get 12-14 folds from 8-10 busted draws and 4 combos of KK+ and lose one stack to J9ss).
while if we check he has those very same 8-10 busto hands to bluff with as well as 12 combos of KK+ having the chance to value cut itself or thinking he can induce a bluff or thin call as well as J9ss for nuts? so 18-20 potential combos to put in money potentially losing and still only one we lose to.. KK+ might go for thin value thining we are slowng down to xcall AQ or T9 while KK+ could thinkhe can get thin value then level itself. (also if he has a set himself he s jamming that anyway)
i think as played a jam is very fine tho cuz i think if he calls half pot he calls jam enough to make both at least evenly good in ev so might as well.
thoughts?