hand looks butchered and threadworthy

I agree with THIS ^

I don't think you should raise middle suited connectors in MP much, but def. not when your image is that of somebody raising every other hand and it's likely to go multiway.

As played, probably a fold.

1/3

1200 effective

Villain is a 20s somewhat decent player, maybe a little tilted

Hero in MP with AQo opens to 10
V in SB 3! to 35, hero calls

Flop (70) QJ2
50, call

Turn (170) Q
100, call

River (370) 3
300, hero?

Should I be raising here?

I am interested to see replies to no_regrets. I may be in the minority but I lean flatting as I think villain more likely to have JJ then AA/KK and be willing to call a raise. But I am on the nittier side.

When the flop TP pairs on the turn, almost every single hand like AA/KK hand says "**** ME!" and checks and hopes likes hell you start checking back.

But he kept firing.

Which means one of three things.

He has air and wants you to fold. So he's not calling a river raise.

He has a boat and wants you to call or raise. He'll likely be shoving over your river raise.

Which only leaves other non-boat Qx hands that will consider calling off a raise. Do most people 3bet KQ preflop out-of-the-blinds? Not in my experience, so I'm not convinced we run into a worse Q enough of the time to make a raise worthwhile.

Unless guy is completely ******ed, the discussion of calling vs folding is probably closer than raising vs calling.

Gimo,althoughI'vebeenaccusedofmissingvaluebeforeG

When comparing calling vs jamming on the river, this is just an exercise of combo counting, as you need >50% when camparing the two.

Lose to:
JJ 3 combos
QJ 3
33 3
22 3

toss out AQ as it's a chop.

To jam, we need Villain to b/c with more than 12 combos (if we assume he never has Q3 or Q2). Combos:
KQ 4
AA 3
KK 6
QT 4
Q9 4

So, basically, if you think he has lots of Qx in his range and won't be able to lay it down, then you can jam.

(lol at folding btw)

The problem is the combos we lose to play the hand like this a lot more often than the combos we are beating.

Gcombomathrequiresappropriateweighting,imoG

Yes, the combos need to be weighted. That's up to the OP and his read. Many players may b/f KK or not have Q9 in their range. Hand is probably a call unless his 3bet range is wide and/or he's very tilted.

Never a fold imo. Rarely a raise unless V is pretty lose / we have better reads.

So call. Even if V showed up with KQ here that doesn't mean we made a mistake vs his range. Same for if he shows up with QJ.

Thanks gents, great thoughts and very helpful.

I agree with sail, am definitely never folding this hand unless maybe he had 3x overbet-jammed the river, so it's just a question of calling or raising.

I had only seen him 3! one other time in the 2 hours he had been at the table, and I think his 3! range is JJ+/AK, maybe AQ, with a small chance of a suited broadway in there occasionally.

Based upon a physical read I thought it most likely he had AA/KK up through the turn. Then when he made the 80% pot bet on the river, I worried a lot more about JJ or maybe QJ.

In terms of combos of his range on the river, I think it's:

AA 1.5 (I think he shuts down half the time on the river)
KK 3 (I think he shuts down half the time on the river)
JJ 3
AQ 1.5 (I think he might 3! this hand half the time and only three combos are left)
KQ 1 (if he 3! this hand 25% of the time)
QJ .5 (slight chance he 3! this hand)
AK 4 (if he 3 barrel bluffs 1/3 of the time)

So that's 14.5 combos. Of those, how many could call a raise?

My default was to give him enough credit that he wouldn't call a raise with AA/KK. So that leaves:

JJ 3 (lose)
AQ 1.5 (chop)
KQ 1
QJ .5

So it seems like a call is best unless he is going to call a raise with AA/KK (4.5 combos) in which case we should raise. I didn't think he was tilted enough to do that at the time...

I'm in the just call camp, definitely wouldn't raise here. Never folding either.

Thanks again for all the thoughts and suggestions.

Fwiw, I called and he had AA.

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk

Ha, I find that a very surprising result. I was actually going to ask "would *you* bet this turn with AA/KK", as I know myself and probably a huge percentage of the poker population would check it.

I mean, I guess it depends on image and how often he 4barrels air and puts in $300 bets (which is a huge ****ing bet in my game), but overall I would rate this as tremendous (and almost noobish) spew on his part.

GcluelessNLnoobG

Yeah, I was pretty surprised myself.

He was making big bets sometimes and overvaluing hands a bit but this was a little much even for him.

After this hand he appeared to go on mega-tilt and we all started salivating, but unfortunately he had the discipline to leave a few hands later.

In his spot I think I would, depending on opponent, either bet turn, and check/fold river, or check/call turn, and check/fold river.

Only against the bluffiest opponents would I call down.

I think I prefer betting turn in general as against a competent opponent checking the turn just gives them the perfect opportunity to bet turn, bet big on river and take it down as a bluff as I'm probably not balanced in my turn checking range when the Q pairs.

Not sure why this is very surprising. People go nuts with AA and/or button click when they aren't sure what to do all the time. Maybe he puts you on KK. Who knows.

Out of curiosity, how many people would call flop if V made a 1.25x PSB?

We're 400 blinds deep. I personally would call even a 2x or 3x PSB on this flop with top/top. Otherwise I think I'm overfolding unless I'm against a nit (this guy definitely was not). Obviously have to consider doing so if he fires big again on most turns...

You and I play in different games if lots of people go nuts / button click here when the flopped TP pairs on the turn. One of the most common traits of players is to get MUBSy / why-oh-why-did-the-dealer-put-that-card-on-the-turn / goddam-I-hate-AA-and-never-win-with-it, which mostly leads to a check / sigh calldown, not a bomb/bomb.

Gno?G

Here's one from last session.

Young aggro kid sits down, and gambools away first stack at $1/3. Rebuys for $250. Hero 3-bet his only two raises so far (w/ AK & JJ), did not show as both folded pre.

Villain UTG raises to $12, 1 callers, Hero in HJ raises to $45
Villain calls, other folds.

Pot $105

Flop: Js 7c 3h

Villain leads $75. Hero?

I tank for a while, and can't see him making this play with an overpair. No way he calls pre, donks flop.

Hero shoves AI. Thoughts?

sure there is plenty of that as well, agreed. But b/f 3 streets with AA is fine here for many situations against many heroes, only real issue is sizing, which many Villains are gonna mess up one way or another. Pounding the bet button 3 times with AA regardless of runnout or Hero/Villain is pretty common all in all.

But I'm not talking about all situations; I'm simply talking about *this* situation, where the flop TP pairs on the turn on a non-flush draw board (and even moreso in this situation where a Q is probably more easily in a preflop raise/call range than almost any other card).

In fact, I'd go so far as to say it's *so* surprising that I almost completely discounted AA from the range once the river play was completed. My guess is once the hand was tabled most people's jaws dropped and kinda looked at each other smacking their lips. I mean, what percentage of regs (both good and bad) play AA this way in *this* spot? < 5%?

GnotsurewhyyouandIdisagreesomuch?G

That's just insane. Dude 3bet and went bet bet bet. That's AA often. They may say **** not a Q on the turn, but not uncommon to hope Hero has KK and keep pounding anyway. This is so standard for some Villains that I don't what else to say. I could go on and on, but this is just silly.

I'll go as far as saying that although bombing every street regardless of the board and opponents range with AA is something that you still see pretty often, it's not as common as it used to be. People learn.

Your game sucks.
It's ok if that's your choice of game (only game from what I remember, so no choice at all I guess) but that doesn't mean it's normal in most games in the country.