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07-03-2015 , 12:54 PM

#26

Syndr0m

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Aug 2008 Posts: 7,201

I think it's more due to the fact that postcounts will be significantly smaller (and thus you also can't rely on others as much) rather than the speed being faster. Although I guess they're basically the same things said differently.

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07-03-2015 , 12:55 PM

#27

ano12345

banned

Join Date: Oct 2013 Posts: 13,741

Not playing, but I think this format would have lesser variance.

First off, no special roles

Also, with the time restrictions so you can't think and being so exposed With only 9 people in the game I think it would be really hard to wolf especially

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07-03-2015 , 12:59 PM

#28

Bluegrassplayer

banned

Join Date: Sep 2007 Posts: 40,645

I imagine the game is much more technical and thus actually easier to wolf. Things like tone and logic are easier to fake because people aren't going to be reading through old posts.

I think eod and fake peeks will play a much bigger role and posting takes a secondary role.

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07-03-2015 , 12:59 PM

#29

Syndr0m

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Aug 2008 Posts: 7,201

How can playing a shorter/faster game ever have less variance? That doesn't make sense. Much more is up to getting lucky.

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07-03-2015 , 12:59 PM

#30

BustoRhymes

Grand Elf

Join Date: Feb 2008 Posts: 26,670

Wow. Just installed the Chrome Tampermonkey script to expand search results. A+.

WW Turbo Strategy Guide

A Comprehensive Guide to 9er Turbos

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07-03-2015 , 01:03 PM

#31

Syndr0m

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Aug 2008 Posts: 7,201

Quote:

Originally Posted by Syndr0m

How can playing a shorter/faster game ever have less variance? That doesn't make sense. Much more is up to getting lucky.

Imagine having to solve last game with 1/4th of the posts

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07-03-2015 , 01:07 PM

#32

Bluegrassplayer

banned

Join Date: Sep 2007 Posts: 40,645

Because the game comes down to more technical skills particularly eod and fake peeks. For a beginner who has no idea what is going on he will likely go the entire game without figuring out anything. In a long game he will have time to figure out who to follow and how the game works. In a turbo it's going to fly by him.

At higher level play I agree it's higher variance.

BTW are there any stats for how often villas win? Presumably ww should win 3/4 the time unless seer actually evens outs the odds to 50 50.

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07-03-2015 , 01:09 PM

#33

Syndr0m

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Aug 2008 Posts: 7,201

I was actually curious in hearing how often a wolf gets lynched d1

If it's ~never maybe people should stop voting "people who sound wolfy" kek

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07-03-2015 , 01:11 PM

#34

Bluegrassplayer

banned

Join Date: Sep 2007 Posts: 40,645

After crash was vig I decided I'm shutting the f up d1 from now on. (OR at least 1/4 the posts)

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07-03-2015 , 01:12 PM

#35

StuckinARutt

(╯°□°）╯︵ ┻━┻

Join Date: Nov 2008 Posts: 38,148

There is a POG ww database

I forget the link

something like checkmywwstats.com

It's been proven that Village wins something like 54-56% of the time.

And in my experience wolves get lynched d1 probably a bit more than rand, probably about 25-30% of the time (for 9er turbo)

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07-03-2015 , 01:13 PM

#36

StuckinARutt

(╯°□°）╯︵ ┻━┻

Join Date: Nov 2008 Posts: 38,148

^ and seer definitely gives village a huge chunk of win equity, that's why he's there.

I would bet that games where seer gets lynched or nkd d1 wolves probably win 75% of the time

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07-03-2015 , 01:13 PM

#37

ano12345

banned

Join Date: Oct 2013 Posts: 13,741

-the kills weren't random. It was strong players who weren't likely to be Angeled. The expectation that we were supposed to be seer hunting made it seem random.

And obviously having a second NK hiidden so well, and the seer having no useful peeks (through no real fault of his own) allowed us ignoring the seer to work.

I am not as sure as everyone else the game was imbalanced. We got lucky with the early kill of the day vig and Monte clearing Syn so early when a lot of the other POGers were suspicious of his play (or lack thereof)

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07-03-2015 , 01:14 PM

#38

StuckinARutt

(╯°□°）╯︵ ┻━┻

Join Date: Nov 2008 Posts: 38,148

A fun situation in a turbo is where the game is mechanically locked on d2

a villager is lynched d1
wolves miss the seer n1, SHCing someone in the process
seer has two live peeks and a third villager is SHC
village wins 98% of the time in this situation barring the 2% of the time lolwolves shc themselves

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07-03-2015 , 01:21 PM

#39

BustoRhymes

Grand Elf

Join Date: Feb 2008 Posts: 26,670

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bluegrassplayer

After crash was vig I decided I'm shutting the f up d1 from now on. (OR at least 1/4 the posts)

To be fair, it was 100% terrible for crash not to hard claim himself as villa vig in that situation. How he thought it was smart to go quietly into the night, I'll never know.

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07-03-2015 , 01:24 PM

#40

ano12345

banned

Join Date: Oct 2013 Posts: 13,741

So he declares and the wolves kill him that night anyways. Indonno how it helps that much. I guess it gives village chance to lynch a wolf if they move to a difft wagon.

Edit: forgot about angel. Interesting.

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07-03-2015 , 01:25 PM

#41

Bluegrassplayer

banned

Join Date: Sep 2007 Posts: 40,645

Angel tho

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07-03-2015 , 01:26 PM

#42

StuckinARutt

(╯°□°）╯︵ ┻━┻

Join Date: Nov 2008 Posts: 38,148

angel could have protected him

simply claiming "I am village vig, angel, please protect me tonight" would have solved everything

if he's not the village vig, the real vig knows he's a wolf and can just kill him the next day

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07-03-2015 , 01:27 PM

#43

StuckinARutt

(╯°□°）╯︵ ┻━┻

Join Date: Nov 2008 Posts: 38,148

at the end of the day it still boils down to believable claims though, because claiming a village PR as a wolf about to get lynched is a smart play too. Good chance you fade the lynch and the angel wastes a protect on you. Obv you're outed once you don't die the following day or night, but by that time usually it's worth it

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07-03-2015 , 01:30 PM

#44

BustoRhymes

Grand Elf

Join Date: Feb 2008 Posts: 26,670

Levels obv. And knowing those hard situations is how you can gamble a little with a high reward potential. Of course crash could be wolfing in that spot, and in that case it would be ridiculous for the real vig to out themselves. But the equity lost if he's telling the truth is too big for the villas not to chamber the lynch and for the angel not to protect him.

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07-03-2015 , 01:32 PM

#45

Bluegrassplayer

banned

Join Date: Sep 2007 Posts: 40,645

Day vig seems incredibly easy to confirm though. "If you are really day vig then we think xxx should be killed now. If someone else is day vig wait an hour."

I imagine there's a lot of leveling with the angel in that spot too.

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07-03-2015 , 01:32 PM

#46

BustoRhymes

Grand Elf

Join Date: Feb 2008 Posts: 26,670

I am chuckling a bit imagining what life would have been like for Monte if crash had claimed but had actually been a wolf. What does he do if someone soft claims vig by saying, "Angel, whoever you are, you are a ****ing idiot if you protect crash again tonight."

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07-03-2015 , 01:34 PM

#47

Bluegrassplayer

banned

Join Date: Sep 2007 Posts: 40,645

Any input on which game is skewed more towards pro players winning stuck/monte

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07-03-2015 , 01:37 PM

#48

StuckinARutt

(╯°□°）╯︵ ┻━┻

Join Date: Nov 2008 Posts: 38,148

Don't really understand the question.

If 8 of you H&Fers go into a turbo or vanilla with 1 POG "Pro", he might know a bit more about mechanics and correct play etc, but would be at just as much a disadvantage playing with new players imo

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07-03-2015 , 01:41 PM

#49

Montecore

RPElf = +EV

Join Date: Mar 2011 Posts: 82,386

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bluegrassplayer

Any input on which game is skewed more towards pro players winning stuck/monte

I'm not particularly knowledgeable about turbos, but my impression is that the more static the player pool is, the more everyone else is aware of everyone else's meta, and the more often the village wins.

With respect to long vanilla games, I think stuck is right that the village has a small edge.

With respect to V+ and mashes, how balanced the roleset is is a much bigger determinant of winrate than anything else, with the specific player rand (which side gets more skilled players) being second most important.

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07-03-2015 , 01:44 PM

#50

BustoRhymes

Grand Elf

Join Date: Feb 2008 Posts: 26,670

Next vanilla+, can we please have an actual seer, none of this affiliation only stuff. I ask this knowing I am greater than rand to be villa next game. If I rand wolf obv I would prefer affiliation only seer.

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