I was going to make a guide for the entire turbo game, but realized that was way too tall of a task. And then I was thinking about a more narrow one I could do and realized a lot of my strategy revolves around peeks, so here we go.


First and foremost: this is a strategy post about mechanics. It is not a strategy post about reads or about persuading people, or anything else. This post will not help you get better reads toward anyone; instead it should give you another metric you can use to judge people by and play more fundamentally sound WW.

This guide is specific to turbos and assumes you have some WW experience (but not necessarily in turbos or even on 2+2). It assumes you know the basic format of turbos.

It also assumes you have knowledge of fake peeks and SHC's. If you don't, it is covered here:

http://archives1.twoplustwo.com/show...fpart=all&vc=1

These concepts are pretty close to necessary for being any good at turbos, even if you are a great WW player otherwise. It is such a huge part of how turbos work that you just need to know the basics. This post will now give you more advanced ways to factor peeks into your game and will look at it from all perspectives (villager/seer/wolf).


Seer

I am starting with seer strategy because it is the most basic, and also informs villager strat with regard to peeks (since you're pretending to be a seer, after all).


1. Leave clear peeks that are easy to find.

I know this has been covered in other guides so I won't go into it too much. But basically there is so little time in a turbo day, and it is really bad for the village when the seer dies unexpectedly, so the village cannot afford to be spending a ton of time trying to find your peek. And even worse, if your peeks are ambiguous, it could wreck the village if there's disagreement. So don't **** around with your peeks.

2. Don't try to be a hero.

A lot of people want to win the game by themselves when they are seer. They want to be sneaky and try to survive til d3. Do not do this.

When you are a seer, your job is to make it as easy as possible for the villagers. This is so important because you are the one person who can singlehandedly wreck the game for the village if you mess up. Thats 6/9 people of the game, who will all be very angry with you in postgame if you make a mistake that eliminates their chances of winning. Realize your role and do not try to win by yourself, just do what you are supposed to do. I will now tell you what you're supposed to do:

D1: Leave a peek and protect your peek from getting lynched, but do not hardclaim.

There is virtually zero benefit to ever hardclaiming on day 1, so don't do it. If you do, both you and your peek will be dead by f5 anyways. So don't do it. You need to survive til d2.

-You do not care who gets lynched on day 1. It doesn't matter if you lynch a villager or a wolf. What matters is that you and your peek both survive. In this way, you have a very similar agenda on d1 to the wolves. And well obviously you'd rather lynch a wolf than a village, your time, energy, and focus should be on making sure you and your peek don't get in trouble. That's what is important. If none of you are in trouble, then advance to n1.

-If you are in trouble, do not hard claim and do whatever you can to survive the day

-If your peek is in trouble, try to save him without hardclaiming or being too obvious. A good way of doing this is to push the counterwagon(s) instead of openly defending your peek - a lot of wolves won't notice this as much.

You can also protect your peek during the early part of the game by attacking anyone who attacks your peek. Or by adding to an already growing wagon. You should generally not worry about if theres a big wagon growing and you think its a villager but its not your peek - as long as you/peek are safe then its okay.

Remember, the village WP% goes up if an unpeeked villager gets lynched on d1.

-Worst case scenario: you and your peek are both wagons. In this case do not hardclaim. Instead fight as hard as you can for your own survival, even if it means lynching your peek. The downside isn't as bad as you'd think, because at least the wolves will not think you are the seer and you will survive to get another peek off.

N1

-Peek the person who is most likely to survive the night.

This matters far more than trying to aim for a wolf or a villager. The absolute worst thing that can happen is if you peek the same person that the wolves try to kill. Avoid that at all costs. This will usually make the counter wagon the best peek because that is typically the least likely NK.

-Track peeks

You should try to do this during d1 if you can. This is how you can try to figure out who the wolves are likely to kill. If you have all the peeks noted, you will see who the likely NK targets are and you should be able to pick one person who is very unlikely to be killed by wolves.

D2
This assumes v/v got lynched/NK'd. Obviously it assumes you as the seer are alive, and it assumes a wolf did not get lynched. If both a wolf got lynched and you survived, you should be in good shape

---

There are three main combinations with your peek results. V/V, V/W, and V/dead (not gonna worry about dead/wolf)

V/V

Do not let either of your peeks get lynched, at all costs. The most important thing you can do is to constantly refresh so that you don't risk any maj vote happening. A maj vote on you or your peek would be devastating.

If either you or your peeks are in serious trouble of getting lynched from the start of the day, then you can just hard claim immediately. If not, or say only one of your peeks is in some amount of trouble, then you can let it play out. You really need to use your own discretion and judgment and be constantly analyzing based on the flow of the votes. Which is why I'll say again:

-Do not let either of your peeks get lynched, at all costs.

Now, as long as you leave clear peeks, and they are looking safe from the lynch, there is no need to hard claim. You can just watch the lynch go by. In fact, you could even maj on someone else (anyone else, other than your peeks) and it may help for the wolves to think you aren't the seer.

-As long as you are lynching from the pool of the 4 unpeeked players, it is a successful day 2.

Preferrably without hardclaiming, but you certainly shouldn't be afraid to hardclaim to protect your peeks.

V/Dead

The same analysis as above applies, except that you should be more hesitant to hard claim. Since you have less people to protect, it should be easier to avoid the lynch with you and your peek. You really don't want to hardclaim or have your peek get killed. You will have to balance this and pay sharp attention to the flow of votes.

V/W

A lot of people think they have to claim when they peek a wolf. That is not true. If you can make it clear from your posts that you peeked someone a wolf without hardclaiming (ex: "based on everything i know about player x, he is a wolf" or "from rereading player x last night, he is a wolf." these are good because they aren't obviously peeks at the time, but will be obvious in retrospect if you get NK'd)

You also don't have to lynch your peeked wolf as long as this is clear - if you get NK'd your peeked wolf will be the next lynch anyways. So as long as you are dodging yourself and your villa peek from the lynch, its really fine and you don't need to freak out.

Of course, you should still be trying to lynch your wolf. But you can do so without hardclaiming, just push for him to be lynched. If there is resistance, then you can hardclaim if you want, but you might as well try to lynch him first without having to HC.

If you are going to HC

-Make sure it is clear. And do so in the proper format: use the word hardclaim, and give your n0 and n1 peeks. It is even better if you can quote where in the thread you left those peeks (for n1 wolf peek you can quote your first or second post where you should have said how you think they're a wolf, or voted them, etc.). Here is an example:

---
HARDCLAIM SEER

n0 jcohen
n1 benneh wolf
---

Don't overestimate how quickly the village will respond (with their votes) to your hard claim. It will take some time for them to process, and there may not be a ton of time left in the day. The more clear your HC post, the faster and easier it will be. You don't want there to be any confusion when you HC (which is why its great if you can include quotes).

I mean, **** it; this is my seer reveal in a slow game (the champions game):

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/sh...postcount=1895

This can be considered your model of excellence. I know this is a post for turbos and you obviously don't have time to type too much, but just be clear. Villagers won't always believe you immediately just because you say the word hardclaim; just keep reiterating that you are the seer and these are your peeks and you left them here and here.

The importance of clarity is especially true because your peeked wolf will probably cc you and say he is the seer, and then it will be a battle. So the clearer you are at first and the more confidence you have with your hardclaim post, the harder it will be for the wolf to fight back. If you hardclaim its unacceptable if you get lynched instead of the peeked wolf.

N2
Same analysis as N1. Assume you will survive the NK (because if you don't then your peek is irrelevant anyways) and peek the most likely person to survive.

If you survive you should win the game.




Villager

D1
-Leave a peek.

It doesn't have to be as clear as the seer peek; you have the freedom to be clever or even ambiguous if you want. Obviously your goal is to get the wolves thinking you're the seer and to draw the NK. So you generally want to not only leave a peek, but also try to drop 1-2 seery posts throughout the day if you can (like reiterating that your peek is good, or voting to save him, etc.)

-Don't openly retract your peek.

It is perfectly fine to change your peek if you think it was wrong, just don't tell the wolves that! Never say "I'm dropping cover" on d1. You can easily just make a later post saying "My real peek was actually ______"

Don't overestimate the wolves - they only have 7-8 minutes to gather all the peeks and send in a kill. They do not have time to go through everyones posts and analyze if they are a seer or not. Instead, they may remember 1-2 posts that seemed seer-y or not seer-y to them from a certain number of people. So don't drop cover at all.


D1 Lynch

-Lynching an unpeeked villager is a successful d1.

Obviously you want to lynch a wolf, but its more important to try to dodge the seer and his peek. If you can do that, the village WP% will go up. So...

-Pay attention to the peeks

You don't need to spend time tracking them (and I wouldn't recommend it like I would for the seer and wolves - your time is better spent on making reads and being villagery...and tracking peeks can actually make you seem wolfy because you're distracted).

But do pay attention and notice if someone is getting peeked multiple times. If someone is peeked 2-3x, you probably shouldn't lynch them. This is for two reasons:

1. They have high equity of being the actual peek.

2. There is a good chance they are a villager even if they aren't the peek. Even wolves will peek villagers more often than not. And villagers will usually peek their strongest villager read.

When you can avoid it, avoid lynching someone who was peeked multiple times.

-When you aren't confident in your reads:

Often there will be D1s where you just aren't confident on any wolf read. Maybe you have a few villagers you like, but are fairly clueless on the wolves. Or maybe you are confident on a wolf but they aren't a wagon. So what do you do?

This is where peek analysis is helpful. Try to lynch someone who wasn't peeked at all. Your goal at this point should be to dodge the seer and his peek.

So while I say not to track peeks as a villager, do try to pay attention when you see them. You should be able to remember people who got peeked multiple times, and you should also make a mental note if certain posts stand out to you as seer-y or non-seer-y.




Cliffs: Just be cognizant of seer/peek combos. Doesn't have to be your #1 thing, but it can function as a good tiebreaker for you.


D2
(Also assumes v/v was killed, otherwise there are no more peek mechanics).

It is still important to maintain cover, but not as important as d1.

-Your goal with your cover should be to stay out of the way. And to be correct (obviously - you also blow cover by having an incorrect peek)

You don't want your fake peeks to impact other villagers' reads on d2. Generally I will fake peek someone who has already been peeked so it overlaps and is more likely to be correct. You can also fake peek the dead villager. Otherwise obv go with your strongest villa read


-For the love of god, do not fake peek a wolf.

Remember how I said you shouldn't try to be a hero as the seer? Well you shouldn't try to be a hero as a villager either.

The fact is that fake peeking a wolf gives you the greatest chance of being incorrect and blowing your cover.


There are very limited circumstances in which its ok for you to fake peek a wolf, which I probably shouldn't even go into because I don't want to encourage it. I'll put it in spoilers.



So fakepeek a villager who is either dead or already peeked, or else a very very strong villa read of yours.


Cliffs: you can blow cover in 2 ways on d2: by not leaving any, or by leaving incorrect cover. So you should try to leave correct cover that doesn't interfere with people's reads by peeking someone who's already been peeked or is dead.



D2 Lynch

-Do not maj.

-Do not make the 3rd vote on someone to risk maj.

This is especially true while the seer is alive and not claimed.

Remember, the worst thing that can happen on d2 is the seer or one of his peeks get lynched. Do not risk this by putting the 3rd vote on someone early, and certainly do not maj.

Balancing multiple fake peeks (without a wolf peek)
When multiple people are leaving fake peeks and you aren't sure who the seer is, try to find consistencies within the claims. So try to lynch someone who, if they're a wolf, could still fit with multiple people being seer.

And try not to lynch someone who is peeked villa by either seer.

Its usually best to just stay in the middle and lynch someone who is not peeked at all. This is essentially a no-risk lynch because the seer and peeks would all survive.

Evaluating multiple seer claims

Factors to consider:

-Who claimed first (obviously)

-If you think the first person to claim is the wolf, then how would the wolves have been able to figure out who the seer is?

To analyze this you look at other peeks and this can help you not only lynch correctly on d2, but to solve the game.

Sometimes it is ok to lynch outside the claims, but most of the time you can figure out who the seer is by judging how they left/protected their peeks d1 and who claimed first on d2. And taking other factors into consideration such as SHC and other n0 fakepeeks, etc.

Other general strat
I'm not gonna go into too much detail about evaluating different seer claims.

Instead, just be aware of what the seer claims are. Similar to d1, you want to dodge the seer and his peek - only now that makes up a bigger portion of the population. And you are also trying not to get lynched yourself, and you are also not lynching the SHC.

So when you notice fake peeks, your remaining lynch options could be very narrowed. And there's nothing wrong with that. Remember that if the seer survives til d3, you almost always win. And remember that even if the seer gets NK'd on n2 with both his peeks + both wolves alive, you still have a good chance of winning.

Cliffs: Continue avoiding the seer and his peeks for the lynch.



After the seer gets NK'd

This applies to both f5 and f7.

Look back at what the fake peeks were. The wolves successfully killed the seer, so how did they do it? Did they get lucky, or were they able to rule out enough other people? It can help you a lot to gather and analyze the fake peeks.

Also if the seer dies n1 and you gather the peeks for f7 - it may not help you a ton in f7 but it can still be useful to analyze later in the game when you have more information about who was what.

Other strategies for rereading at f5/f3

Look back at what the dead people's reads were. This includes both NKs and lynches - and NKs that hit the seer. Even if the wolves NK'd the seer on n1, they probably did not figure that out just because of the peeks - the seer may have been a more appetizing NK because he also had good reads.

In general - villagers with accurate reads are more likely to die early (through both lynch and NK). For the lynch - this is because if they have accurate reads it means they have 2 wolves coming after them now. The wolves want people with accurate reads to die, for obvious reasons.

For the NK - obviously there are levels, but it is still useful to consider what the NK's reads were before they were killed.

Listen, a lot of these metrics are not infallible and could be taken advantage of. So say it is F3.

F3

Here are factors for you to consider, besides your own reads/tone. These are all based on mechanics. And they aren't locked in stone - they will adjust with the times. Right now some of these may be a stronger indicator than others, but maybe a few months from now it will shift. You always have to adapt to the current culture and also the current players. But these are just factors for you to consider:

-Tally analysis of each vote/Wagon formations
-Peek analysis (for when the seer died, if he hadn't HC'd)
-Reads of the people who got NK'd
-Reads of the people who got lynched
-Spew from the dead wolf
-Interactions with the dead wolf

By peek analysis I mean gathering the fake peeks to see how the wolves could have gotten the seer kill right.

None of these are 100%, but by analyzing each one it will help you form a more complete picture. This is also why I always advocate, that if you are the one making the vote at f3:

-Use the full clock at f3.

There's no rush. There are plenty of things for you to double check to make yourself sure of your vote. Just make sure you don't miss the deadline and have it go to rand. You should have an open mind anyways, and that reminds me:



Treat each day as a different entity

When you are a villager, it is crucial to reread during each night. You have to be able to adjust your reads going into each different day. A lot of the time you will get caught up responding to posts and reacting to whats happening during the day, so that you don't get a chance to reread specific players - this is what night is for.

This is also why I hate when people assume I will vote a certain way at f5 or f3.

Each day is a completely different entity.

-Ways of rereading

-The search function would be nice, but it sucks. A lot of times, many posts are missing.

Instead, the best way to search is to have your pages at 100 posts/page, and then to ctrl + f something in the person's location or just their post count so you can quickly go through only their posts (rather than ctrl + f their username which will make you have to click through all the tallies)

On n1, you should have time to go through at least 4-5 different people. On n2, you should be able to go through everyone. These are the best ways of getting reads. I even put in my champions game bio that I'm never fully confident in a read until I've gotten the chance to reread it.

Meaning during the day I am going with the flow and adjusting based on a lot of the mechanics I have been talking about for this entire post. I suppose you could say I mostly go on mechanics during the day, and at night is when I make my reads.

Surely, this will vary for everyone. But I can promise you that rereading overnight will give you a better grasp on your own reads and will help you a lot. You will also pick up on smaller details that wolves will not remember (so you can catch them if they make mistakes remembering things).


And don't forget to have an open mind. You have to realize that as a villager, WW is hard. When you don't have it locked mechanically and have to read people, your reads will not be perfect. If you tunnel someone all d1, be able and willing to reread them n1 and reevaluate your stance. If you hard defend someone d2, reread them n2 to make sure they are still worthy of your defense. Its critical to keep an open mind, and if you do you will never be out of it.

If instead you don't reread or consult with all these different metrics, then the wolves can take advantage of that with their killing order and keep you around for the f3 if they know you will vote a certain way. Instead, you will always be in the game if you keep an open mind and keep consulting different factors.

Whatever the word is for "soul reads" or "tone reads," or basically your initial reads without looking at anything else. You always need to balance this with all the factors above. You'll learn which is usually most accurate for you and constantly recalibrate so you can figure out the best way to make tough ML decisions.

But basically on d1/d2 you can often let the mechanics guide you, and then at ML you should usually be able to figure it out with enough rereading and attention to details.








Wolf

I debated making this entry say "I suck at seerhunting" and leaving it at that. But here is good advice:

D1



What gambit is saying is that you should focus your wolf game on killing the seer. Its easy to assume the NK is your only chance at this, but you do also have the lynch. I said how important it is to dodge the seer and his peek as a villager, so obviously as a wolf you want to lynch the seer or his peek if you can, without drawing too much suspicion.

Usually people won't notice too much if you lynch the seer or the peek on d1 though, because obviously the wolves don't know who it is. So you can take some liberty in trying to hunt them, and it can also help to give you an agenda. A lot of people freeze up as a wolf or have difficulty with tone and feeling natural. I have found that it helps a lot once you have a mission - once you know you want to defend this person who left a wrong peek and can't be seer, and you want to lynch this person who made a seer-y post. Then you can play and sound pretty villagery.

-You should also leave a clear peek so that if you ever need to cc a seer, it will be there with no debate. This is small, but it is beneficial to peek someone who you know is not the seer (because they peeked your wolfbro, for example). You don't want to peek the real seer as your n0 because then you can't cc him later.



D2

-I do not recommend coming out with a wolf peek on someone. I would never be confident enough to know who is the seer.

Instead, if you think someone is the seer you can vote them right as d2 opens, or say something bad about them. You can leave a trail so that if they end up claiming seer, you can go back and say that you actually had a wolf peek on them. This is a small task with low-risk, and can be a huge/game-saving reward if done correctly. Because you can easily make it seem like you were the seer.


Anyways I don't have much to say here because it obviously depends on the peeks, but it also depends how comfortable your team is with bussing.

Pretty much just keep gathering peeks and hope that you can figure out who the seer is. And pray that you will hit the seer n2. And pray that once the seer is out, the game is not mechanically locked against you.

I guess the only thing I'm good at here is looking forward. As soon as someone hard claims seer and you believe them, you need to instantly figure out your path to victory. You should be able to very quickly deduce which people you need to mislynch in order to win, and which people you need to sway their vote.

So for example, the seer HC's with 2 live villas. Now you know you have 3 votes, and its ok if you or your partner get lynched, as long as the other two lynches are villagers.

You know that the 2 peeked players are the ones whose votes will decide the game. You need to start getting on their good side immediately. You always have to be anticipating who the swing votes will be, and then its very easy to get on their good side - just have the same reads as them. Even if it means bussing your bro. Just pay attention to them.

Wolfing is very easy once the real seer is out. Just plot your path to victory and execute. The hardest part is getting the real seer out or NK'ing him. So...

-On d2, try to lynch people who you think are the seer or peeks to draw the seer out.


Anyways, mechanics obviously don't apply much because you aren't trying to figure anything out besides who the seer is. Try to be aware of who you are SHC'ing n1 - ideally the SHC will overlap with the real seer or a peek, otherwise you're in trouble.







And I think that's about all I have. I'm sure this post is way too long, but whatever. Its 4 am and I typed it. If you actually read the whole thing, hopefully this has been helpful.



---


Main village/seer takeaways

-If you lynch an unpeeked villager on day 1, it is a successful day and your WP% goes up.

-Even on day 2, if you lynch an unpeeked villager you may still be in very good shape.

So try to dodge the seer/peeks when you can.

-As seer with 2 live on d2, never let you or your peeks get lynched. As villager never make the 3rd vote or maj someone when seer is alive and hasn't HC'd (unless there's less than 2 minutes left or so, and you don't have a choice - but still be aware of likely seer/peeks and try to dodge them)

-Treat each day as a separate entity and reread overnight with an open mind.

-Take the full time when you are the deciding vote at ML. Apply the following factors when rereading (besides your own gut read):

-Tally analysis of each vote/Wagon formations
-Peek analysis (for when the seer died, if he hadn't HC'd)
-Reads of the people who got NK'd
-Reads of the people who got lynched
-Spew from the dead wolf
-Interactions with the dead wolf

Great post jcohen.

Also, can we ban anyone who quotes a huge post in its entirety?

Holy **** this please.

You can ban me when you've participated in this thread half as much as I have.

Hard to include every aspect of the game in one post but you did bring up some important

And of course some of the things on there are up for debate but given you are one of the 2 turbo GOATs your insight is valuable

Maybe ask to start a turbo strategy thread like some of guides found in the stickies?

There really is no reason why that post shouldn't be in the stickied guide.

Ranks right up there with some of the ones CPHoya did. Kind of reminds me of the villaging in high volume games thread.

There's a specific strategy adjustment needed during a turbo vs regular game, or regular game versus big ass game.

You somehow lost my quote in there, cohen

fixed

Added an IMPORTANT SYMBOL for this IMPORTANT STRAT POST.

I haven't read it yet but I am sure my boy jochen is doing #work.

You didn't peek me wolf dude

Retract

-benneh

i do all the leg work and you come in here with your bells and whistles!

well i never

I have strong affinities for tl;dr strat posts and those that either read or make them

oh wow, I've never gotten a symbol before. I've finally made it

Cohen,

I forgot to mention when wolfing on day2 or day3, voting with your first post as to set up a cc later that day (assuming the seer is still alive)

is it finally time for YG to publish his book on seer hunting ?

lol

that is mentioned somewhere in there

i think so

I agree with almost everything

But I'm still going to fakepeek wolves when I'm confident and the cards line-up even as an unpeeked villager

Sorry bros

Rand.org

Now, after I read this, I became THE ELITE NOOB.

great post

maybe i won't be historically bad now

note to self- consult the thread

I would actually add something really important to this, because I'm concerned that the advice about surviving F7 as seer is potentially really bad if used incorrectly.

As the seer, you should almost always claim at Must Lynch + 1, if you haven't already. That is to say, you should almost always claim on the day before must lynch is possible. The reason is that a seer vs. seer claim battle during must lynch is super horrible and has a high error rate.

Rules

If a villager was lynched on day 1 and you have 2 live peeks on day 2, you basically have to claim. When you claim on day 2 is up to you, but F5 is potentially must lynch, so you must claim.

If a villager was lynched on day 1 and you only have 1 live peek, you should almost always claim. This is not an ideal situation but, hey, tomorrow is potentially must lynch and your claim is going to kinda suck.

If a wolf was lynched on day 1 and you have either 1 or 2 live peeks, there is no need to claim. Know why? Because tomorrow is NOT potentially must lynch. You are currently in ML + 2.

Ezpz.

The exceptions are esoteric and incredibly thin vs. claiming at ML+1. Interestingly, this rule works not only for turbo 9'ers, but for 13'ers, for ANY vanilla game, AND for ANY V+ where the roles are outed and you can reliably calculate ML+1.

Judging by circumstances in 13rs, larger games, and V+s, you can of course claim earlier, depending upon your peeks / game state / etc.