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Stats and Graphs Analysis Thread Stats and Graphs Analysis Thread

02-10-2011 , 07:34 PM
Hello everyone my name is Jaymel and this is my first post. I usually play poker for fun at any limit long as its micro thats were im most comfortable, Ive been playing for about 4 years and just the last 5months I just started reading and learing all the aspects of poker 3betting, rerasing, bet folding etc. With that said I feel im a very good poker player(at micro stakes.) But im a very good losing poker player because I never followed bank roll management and I have no patience and I tilt very very easy. But once I started playing rush that all changed because I can get 2000hand every hour playing 4tables at rush. Ive been doing pretty good and playing within my limits at5nl rush!! I wanted to wait into I got a bigger sample like 100k but I think 40k should do.Here is my graph I dont really understand the red line but if you guys could comment and tell me what you think I would appreciate it a lot. I wanna build my bank roll up so I can play 25nl based on this do you guys think im good enough for 25nl when My roll is big enough?

Kinda went of tilt the last 3,000 hands but other than that



Stats and Graphs Analysis Thread Quote
02-10-2011 , 10:32 PM
hex, 2000/ hour means you are Quick Folding PF too much. You are losing some +EV spots because you never stick around long enough to find out that it was folded to you on the button.....and both blinds are NITs like you. To me, THAT is an auto-raise PF.

You are winning, so that is good. There are probably some leaks from what you posted, but to me, you seem to be more interested in grinding hands than learning poker.

Lesson #1: Play only three tables tonight. Never Quick Fold. (you may have to go to two tables). Fold like you always do until you get to the button.... (in a month you may add CO). On the Button, first thing to do is ignore your cards. Look at the blinds. Are they NITS, TAGS, REGS, LAGS, or passive FISH ?

If NITs, what do you do?
If passive fish?
and so on. (((hint: with your NIT stats, you can get away with murder against the TAGs and Regs....for a while)))

(Lesson 1a: If folded to you in SB,, do the same thinking about BB)

Less hands, more learning.

(I 3 table 50,100 and 200 FR Rush and almost never hit Quick Fold in three hours of play.)
Stats and Graphs Analysis Thread Quote
02-11-2011 , 12:20 AM
hex, went to walk the dog and had another thought that might help.

Rush is the PERFECT game if you have tilt issues. By now you should at least be able to identify the symptoms you have with the tilt you experience on the table. Everyone does different things when ABOUT to go on tilt. Identify that "thing" that is yours. It's not just someone hit a 2-outer......because you don't always tilt when villain hits like that. It's the feeling you get when he hits the 2-outer and you HAVE to tilt/

Then do what I do. Stand up and walk away. Rush is perfect for this as you don't have to give up the Jesus seat ever. Five to ten minutes......the key to returning is when you have completely recovered your mojo. Identify THAT moment for you too. Don't come back until it feels like an entirely new session.

GL
Stats and Graphs Analysis Thread Quote
02-11-2011 , 02:59 PM
King, so you don't quick fold ever, or just on the button? I have a mac so PT3 doesn't work for rush. Any suggestions on when to raise the button? Do you ever just auto min raise the button? I have found it to be working frequently for me. Also do you think I am playing too many hands?
Stats and Graphs Analysis Thread Quote
02-11-2011 , 04:43 PM
1. Get HEM if you plan to Rush. Without a HUD, Rush is hard. Not impossible. Just harder than it needs to be. If you play 25NL or above, HEM will pay for itself in the first session.....once you learn what's important.

2. Never Quick Fold is incorrect for me. Typically with Rush, I first glance at hand and position. If I am first three chairs without a hand, I QF (ofc, most of the time action is already to me so it's not a QF). Next 3 chairs I look at those behind. Any aggro-monkey before the blinds and I QF without a playable. But if all behind are NIT-to-tightTAG, I can consider playing if noone has opened in front. CO and Bttn will only QF if someone in front raises 1st in and there are good players in the blinds....oh, then I look at my cards. QF from the blinds once there is action in front and I have an unplayable....... but never QF if the action is slow in front, you never know when it gets folded to you sometimes

Understand that a lot of Rush is playing the table, not your two cards. Got it?

3. Experiment with bet sizing. The math behind the minraise makes sense.....but to me, less sense at Rush? Can YOU explain why I might feel this way? As to auto-raise the bttn..... the new King does not do this any more. I am MUCH more aware of type of players that are in the blinds.

4. 20/12 .....well, some can play well with these stats, others cannot. I would like to see your positional stats to see if you are too loose early.

Last edited by King Spew; 02-11-2011 at 04:51 PM.
Stats and Graphs Analysis Thread Quote
02-11-2011 , 05:00 PM
I want to reiterate a message I stated in the previous post because I feel it is the most important part of Rush, yet I bet most don't do this one--- simple---- thing.

Look at your position before you look at your cards.
Stats and Graphs Analysis Thread Quote
02-11-2011 , 06:26 PM
Thanks for the insight King. I can't run HEM on my mac either. It makes it tough I know, but I love my mac too much to run parallels or any other windows software. I tried it once before and it crashed the hard drive.

Another question I have for you is how do you approach mid-pairs in rush? I have tried open limping and open raising and not sure what is preferred. I often end up value-owning myself oop.
Stats and Graphs Analysis Thread Quote
02-13-2011 , 06:58 AM
Here are my stats for 50k hands of NL5 FR @ Stars.

Not sure about WR from CO + BTN.

Any comments on that and any other leaks is highly appreciated.
Thanks!




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Stats and Graphs Analysis Thread Quote
02-13-2011 , 07:27 AM
If you are running 2.42 BB/100 @ NL 10 thru 50K...what could one expect to make or lose at NL 25?
Stats and Graphs Analysis Thread Quote
02-13-2011 , 07:31 AM
People used to say that if you are winning at your current stake over a significant sample you'll win more (in absolute terms) if you move up. In other words your winrate at the next level is probably at least half of what it is now.

If you have the bankroll and you have no problem moving back down if it doesn't work then give it a try.

That being said I personally like a winrate of at least 3BB/100 before moving up.
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02-14-2011 , 02:40 AM
Hey,

Thought I'd give this thread a go, still pretty new. Been playing full ring for about 2 weeks now, planning to move up from 2NL pretty soon.

(The software I'm using is PokerOffice, I would use HEM but I can't for the life of me install postgresql even after scouring the earth's support forums.)

One area I'm trying to work on is not cold calling pre so much with hands like KQ/AJ/AQ. If a fishy player opens from MP/LP I'll call with position (which I think isn't terrible?). It's flatting from the blinds and flatting a TAG/nit's open where I'm usually not sure which way to lean (fold/flat/3bet).

Semi-related weakness is I tend to float a lot with overs after flatting IP.

And with 36.4% WTSD I'm obv a giant station. Don't really have an excuse :S I just have trouble letting go of TPTK+ vs non nits I think.

Thanks for taking the time







Position starts from BTN and goes clockwise - so 0=BTN, 1=SB, 2=BB, 8=CO.



Stats and Graphs Analysis Thread Quote
02-14-2011 , 05:06 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by fast11375
Hey guys, I just did a 50k hands check and found out that I've been steadily losing in pots between 16bb-40bb. I am winning on all other sized pots but this one. Help!

Other info: 9.75bb/100 in this sample at 25NL/PL, playing 14.8/11.2 22% WTSD 3.2 AF. this is out of 50,000 hand sample.


bump. Anyone?
Stats and Graphs Analysis Thread Quote
02-14-2011 , 08:28 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by fast11375
bump. Anyone?
Why do you need to win pots of all sizes? Win big pots, lose small pots, that's basically the secret to poker. Looks like you have the "lose small pots" part down pat.

Edit: Looks like I break even for pot sizes between 10 and 30 bb, but who cares.
Stats and Graphs Analysis Thread Quote
02-14-2011 , 09:07 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by fast11375
bump. Anyone?
i think the answer is obvious - either put in 4 or fewer BBs or more than 20 BBs. =)

probably what this is from is pots where you flop a hand you're not sure what to do with. you either bet flop check fold turn, bet flop bet turn check fold river, or vice versa (check call flop check fold turn, check call flop and turn check fold river). while this in itself is not a leak - bet/folding is the magic bullet swiss army knife at uNL - there are potentially a ton of spots where you're check calling when you should be bet/folding, and spots where you're bet/folding when you should be check/folding.

also helps to have a plan for the T/R when you see the flop. betting and THEN making your decision is recipe for massive leaks.
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02-14-2011 , 01:03 PM
fast11375: Are these all pots of the given size? Or only the ones where you put money in the pot? It could be that you're not even involved it most of them.
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02-14-2011 , 03:59 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by cabby
Hey,

Thought I'd give this thread a go, still pretty new. Been playing full ring for about 2 weeks now, planning to move up from 2NL pretty soon.

(The software I'm using is PokerOffice, I would use HEM but I can't for the life of me install postgresql even after scouring the earth's support forums.)

One area I'm trying to work on is not cold calling pre so much with hands like KQ/AJ/AQ. If a fishy player opens from MP/LP I'll call with position (which I think isn't terrible?). It's flatting from the blinds and flatting a TAG/nit's open where I'm usually not sure which way to lean (fold/flat/3bet).

Semi-related weakness is I tend to float a lot with overs after flatting IP.

And with 36.4% WTSD I'm obv a giant station. Don't really have an excuse :S I just have trouble letting go of TPTK+ vs non nits I think.

Thanks for taking the time
Your sample size is pretty small but some things I see.
Limp first in less - (never)
Find spots to 3 bet more. Notice I did not say 3 bet more, I said find spots.
Steal more with tight blinds. If the blinds are really loose, change tables.

Overall it looks like you are not very aggro preflop. This might work at your stakes but it is going to limit your ability to play higher limits.
Stats and Graphs Analysis Thread Quote
02-14-2011 , 04:08 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by fast11375
bump. Anyone?
First off if you are winning at 9bb/100, who cares if this is low. (Could just be sample size)

Second, is your non-showdown winnings corralated. This could be pots you are giving up on the turn or river.

But it seems easy enough to just look at those hands you played and figure out what happened. There is probably a pattern.

possiblities - C bet too much and give up, floating too much,

but again, if I was winning at 9bb/100, I would not even care.
Stats and Graphs Analysis Thread Quote
02-15-2011 , 02:40 AM
I started playing rush 5nl earlier this month and was winning at a pretty good rate. Recently I've been losing and am wondering if its standard variance or tilt. I know that the beginning of the downswing was due to tilt, but not sure about the rest.





Any help is appreciated, thanks.
Stats and Graphs Analysis Thread Quote
02-15-2011 , 08:37 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by RandomPerson
I started playing rush 5nl earlier this month and was winning at a pretty good rate. Recently I've been losing and am wondering if its standard variance or tilt. I know that the beginning of the downswing was due to tilt, but not sure about the rest.





Any help is appreciated, thanks.
Hard to say, post positional stats and let's see if we can spot something
Stats and Graphs Analysis Thread Quote
02-15-2011 , 12:05 PM
To me it looks like the form of tilt where you forget that you have a fold button. You might want to compare your WTSD and W$SD for the first 15k hands with those for the remaining hands.
Stats and Graphs Analysis Thread Quote
02-15-2011 , 04:51 PM
Quote:
To me it looks like the form of tilt where you forget that you have a fold button.
Now that I think about it, this may be the problem. I couldn't figure out how to filter stats for a certain number of hands (pokertracker noob and also using the trial version if that's relevant). Here are my positional stats:

Stats and Graphs Analysis Thread Quote
02-15-2011 , 05:04 PM
You can filter for specific dates or ranges of dates.
Stats and Graphs Analysis Thread Quote
02-15-2011 , 06:16 PM
I filtered the hands and got:
WTSD: 27.02, W$SD: 50.93 (first ~15k hands)
WTSD: 27.70, W$SD: 44.92 (downswing)

Also, I just played a session while remembering to use the fold button and had good results:



Obviously not a significant sample, but I think it may point to not folding being the main problem. Thanks again for the feedback.
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02-15-2011 , 10:06 PM
would love to hear some feed back on my stats. Leaks are obv there so even with such a low sample size i figure they should be visible to someone who knows what they are looking for.
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Thanks
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02-15-2011 , 10:07 PM
for some reason this didn't work first time...my graph.

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