Quote:
Originally Posted by Birdman10687
I don't know. I guess its hard to say. The flu vaccine seems to range anywhere from like 25-60% effective on a year when they guess the strain right, and I think the estimates are that it saves a few thousand people a year in the US. If that is the kind of success we can expect from this I wouldn't rate it up there with any kind of all time advancement. And I think most people would say the flu vaccine "works" (even though I would not).
And that is to say nothing of possible long term side effects which we know nothing about--I find that a bit worrisome for something that seems to be a completely brand new technology.
I'd agree flu efficacy would not be "working" in regards to this. Good news is the efficacy we've seen is not even in the same ballpark. I'd wager every dollar I could borrow that its orders of magnitudes more effective than the flu vaccine (for now, there are certainly concerns about length of immunity and it seems likely this may become an annual thing, but those questions will be answered later). The cumulative incidence curves are incredible between placebo and intervention, better than we've ever seen with the flu (to my knowledge, could be missing a year or something). Of those in the intervention group nearly all the cases were within 7 days of administration. A tiny % increase happened after the first week (while placebo group increased every step of the way). Furthermore, this was only the first of two doses! Immunity increased with the second.
As far as the long term effects, sure, I addressed that, but I understand if thats not compelling to you. There are always risks involved whenever any medical intervention is administered. That being said, if someone doesn't get it they should definitely do absolutely everything in their power to not get COVID because every argument for side effects of this work for COVID as well.
I really think it's underrated just how insane it was to get this to market doing what it does in the timeframe it does. This is part of why I asked how you define works, because we may not even recognize the benefits when half the country doesn't get it, we don't still quarantine sick, etc. Just making this happen in this manner is historical despite the fact we probably don't deal with it right and don't recognize the benefits people hope, some magical wand that makes everything like it was a year ago.
Thanks for the discourse, enjoy chatting with you.