Okay here's 'short' cliffnotes (all times posted in my commentary are Eastern):
Obviously this thread involves a prop bet. The prop bettor, Gary_Neville is MilitiaRusha on PokerStars, and over the last 750,000 hands at 1/2nl he is a -0.62 bb/100 winner over those hands. He is down approximately $15-20k this year on PTR. However to be clear, he is pursuing supernova elite, so that doesnt' mean he would be a NET loser with bonuses (disclaimer: I rarely play pokerstars, so I don't undrestand SNE). The 5 days prior to theprop bet, he's down 32 buyins in ~50k hands. He has made posts on 2p2 admitting he is a losing player, but that SNE will make up for it.
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Here's the terms of the prop bet. Initially Gary was NOT going to have a webcam and he had a RL friend serving as escrow. After complaining by the other side, he allowed another escrow and setup a justin.tv account.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gary_Neville
Recap:
Full Prop Details:
The bet: OP (Gary_Neville, MilitiaRusha on pokerstars) will play 30k hands in 24 hours or less and show a profit before rakeback.
The odds: 3:1 in Gary's favor ($7,500 of bbv's money against $2,500 of Gary's)
The escrows and judges: KRab42 on stars and FTP, city is chicago. blackize on stars and FTP, city is Laurel. PM both of them about sending on FTP but it's not preferred.
Rules:
1. *The bet will take place between March 19th 6:00am CST and March 20th 6:00am CST (Chicago time)
2. At least 30,000 hands will be played within that time frame. If not, Gary loses the bet
3. At the end of 30,000 hands profit will be totaled, before rakeback. Gary will not have a chance to chase losses beyond 30,000 hands played
4. All hands will be played on pokerstars, under the handle MilitiaRusha, at 200nl 6max tables, either 50bb min or regular. Gary will be full stacked
at all points during the 30,000 hands.
5.** There WILL be a webcam recording (90% sure now, although still subject to technical restrictions), and Gary will not be hidden from search.
6. There is no restriction on how long he plays consecutively, only that he must complete 30,000 hands in the given time frame
7. There is no restriction on who can sit at his tables, but any suspicious activity (i.e. stalling) will be noted and dealt with by appointed judges.
All bettors must provide their pokerstars screen name so that judges may monitor their activity on Gary's tables. Any bettor who is determined to have stalled significantly will void the bet.
8. OP will be the only person to play under the account MilitiaRusha during the terms of the bet
*** Aftermath:
1. Will take screenshot of HEM
2. Will request from Stars all hand histories in question and cc to required parties (the two judges/escrows + bettors if neccesary)
3. Can check PTR.
Post any questions or necessary clarifications here
* Sorry for the confusion. Start time will indeed be 6 am CST NOT CET as mentioned earlier.
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At one point during the prop Gary is up 9 buyins (9:04 PM). However, he starts to lose it back and at 11:41 PM he is down $280 with 1.8k hands to go.
At 12:18 PM, this hand happens:
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gene Fish
PokerStars Game #41420827405: Hold'em No Limit ($1/$2 USD) - 2010/03/20 0:14:18 ET
Table 'Ginevra II' 6-max Seat #2 is the button
Seat 1: ktai6666 ($148.45 in chips)
Seat 2: MilitiaRusha ($372.30 in chips)
Seat 3: texdonkey ($96.10 in chips)
Seat 4: breeezzz ($200 in chips)
Seat 6: B Buddy ($206.35 in chips)
texdonkey: posts small blind $1
breeezzz: posts big blind $2
*** HOLE CARDS ***
AA_Legend joins the table at seat #5
B Buddy: folds
ktai6666: folds
MilitiaRusha: raises $4 to $6
texdonkey: folds
breeezzz: raises $14 to $20
MilitiaRusha: raises $28 to $48
breeezzz: raises $152 to $200 and is all-in
MilitiaRusha: calls $152
*** FLOP *** [Kc Qd 2h]
*** TURN *** [Kc Qd 2h] [Js]
*** RIVER *** [Kc Qd 2h Js] [4c]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
breeezzz: shows [7c Td] (high card King)
MilitiaRusha: shows [Qc Qh] (three of a kind, Queens)
MilitiaRusha collected $399 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $401 | Rake $2
Board [Kc Qd 2h Js 4c]
Seat 1: ktai6666 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 2: MilitiaRusha (button) showed [Qc Qh] and won ($399) with three of a kind, Queens
Seat 3: texdonkey (small blind) folded before Flop
Seat 4: breeezzz (big blind) showed [7c Td] and lost with high card King
Seat 6: B Buddy folded before Flop (didn't bet)
cmon man..at least make it look real
Gary wins by less than $20. In all, breeezzz lost ~$242 to Gary according to HEM.
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Obviously the thread goes nuts. Here's background information on breeezzz:
1. He posts on 2p2 under breezh4x and seems obviously wanting to work on his game.
2. He is a micro stakes sng grinder, plays like $3 sng's.
3. He has like 30 hands of history at $1/2NL from June of 2009.
4. He has an interesting take on chipdumping:
http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/54.../#post13479166
Another hand vs breeezzz is posted:
Quote:
Originally Posted by blackize
Keep in mind at the time of this hand breez has played 4 hands with Gary. Breez has opened the BTN and the CO. The BTN open was 3bet by PokerPuzzle, breez folds.
PokerStars Game #41420795499: Hold'em No Limit ($1/$2 USD) - 2010/03/20 0:13:10 ET
Table 'Laomedon V' 6-max Seat #6 is the button
Seat 1: MilitiaRusha ($211.20 in chips)
Seat 2: umpa21 ($209.25 in chips)
Seat 3: apple_strike ($135.85 in chips)
Seat 5: breeezzz ($200 in chips)
Seat 6: PokerPuzzle ($235.35 in chips)
MilitiaRusha: posts small blind $1
umpa21: posts big blind $2
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to MilitiaRusha [8h 6d]
JoeIngram1 leaves the table
apple_strike: folds
3J55 joins the table at seat #4
breeezzz: raises $4 to $6
PokerPuzzle: folds
MilitiaRusha: raises $16 to $22
umpa21: folds
breeezzz: calls $16
*** FLOP *** [Jh Ad 6s]
MilitiaRusha: bets $26
breeezzz: calls $26
*** TURN *** [Jh Ad 6s] [Ks]
MilitiaRusha: bets $66
breeezzz: folds
Uncalled bet ($66) returned to MilitiaRusha
MilitiaRusha collected $96 from pot
MilitiaRusha: doesn't show hand
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $98 | Rake $2
Board [Jh Ad 6s Ks]
Seat 1: MilitiaRusha (small blind) collected ($96)
Seat 2: umpa21 (big blind) folded before Flop
Seat 3: apple_strike folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 5: breeezzz folded on the Turn
Seat 6: PokerPuzzle (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Hand #1269
Gary has a 5.2% 3bet percentage over the 30k hands, so this is also supicious to the posters/bettors.
At this point, the consensus is to look for new judges, my name is suggested by terp, who is a bettor in the thread. (aside: screw you terp for
getting me involved) BlackIze PM's me asking for help, that's the first I've heard of this prop.
I offer to help, but indicate I'm unwilling to review all 30k hands, but I'll certainly look at suspicious stuff. Sunday night 3/20 we get on AIM and he provides me with cliff notes and my initial thought is that it's just random. Here's the link to that AIM conversation:
http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/sh...postcount=1444
So my intent Monday morning is to just do a little googling to make sure nothing seems fishy and then post my support of awarding Gary the bet.
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So, I start to google breeezzz and I find a link to a 2p2 poster named Nostalgica. Information about Nostalgica:
1. He was a coach/video producer on two web sites, and he primarily coaches microstakes SNG's.
2. Nostalgica is a good friend of Gary's in RL.
3. Nostalgica coached breeezzz and was good friends with him too.
4. Nostalgica was VERY active in this thread defending Gary and providing reasoning for breeezzz's play in the T7o hand.
5. It is revealed in the thread that Nostalgica is ALSO posting in the thread under the name RoSeeker; Roseeker is also posting in support of Gary.
A moderator got involved and demanded that he disclose that he was both posters.
Here's the link to my original disclosure of the link between breeezzz and Nostalgica:
http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/sh...&postcount=818
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So now this raises red flags, so I decide to take a look at the 86o hand. I filter down Gary's 3bet range over the 30k hands where he's in the blinds
vs cutoff/button. I see TWO hands show up (offsuit garbage) that seem unusual for a 5.2% 3bettor, the 68o vs breeezz and J8o vs a player named StoppedClock. Here's the link to the 3bet graphics:
http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/sh...&postcount=838
Information about StoppedClock:
1. NO history at $1/2NL on PTR.
2. Also plays microstakes SNG's.
3. StoppedClock shows more than DOUBLE the number of hands played against gary as anyone else on PTR.
4. StoppedClock lost $367 to Gary according to HEM.
5. A microstakes SNG player instantly sits at 4 tables of $1/2NL to start his first session.
So then I find a link where StoppedClock is ALSO a friend of Nostalgica/RoSeeker! Here's the link:
http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/sh...&postcount=849
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So my next step was to look at everyone that lost more than a buyin to Gary. I found ANOTHER player that had no cash game history on PTR (you can
google his name and find MSNL hands from 2007) who also sat with Gary that night and lost more than $800 to Gary. I was NOT able to find a link to
Gary/RoSeeker, but it still seems suspicious. Here's the link to my discussion of this third player:
http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/sh...&postcount=866
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So then I review all the hands vs these two new villans (breeezzz only had the two hands, so nothing else to review really)...
vs StoppedClock: There were 17 hands where more than $5 was won/lost by our hero in a hand where StoppedClock was involved. Hero won all but two of
the hands that were heads up between them and those were very small pots:
1. Hero checks down ace high vs Stopped's 44, no post flop action.
2. Hero folds to Stopped's cbet after Stopped opens utg+1.
Here's the link to actual hand histories:
http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/sh...&postcount=893
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vs rongrong: There were 28 hands where more than $5 was won/lost by our hero in a hand where Rongrong was involved. Rongrong was playing 75/35. Of the 21 that were heads up, hero won 17.
Here's the link to the actual hand histories:
http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/sh...&postcount=901
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This was the extent of my initial posting. Other potentially questionable things:
1. The webcam was apparently setup so that you could not see Gary's laptop screen. At one point someone asked the camera to be turned, and Gary refused saying 'busy'. I personally did not SEE this, so this is from a poster in this thread.
2. Gary offered to redo the prop bet IF HE HAD TO, while maintaining complete innocence.
3. Breeezzz is reading this thread and HAS NOT posted in response to accusations he was involved in chip dumping.
http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/sh...postcount=1681
He did respond to a PM from Blackize with the following explanation:
Quote:
um this is the first time I played cash game for a long time. I stopped playing the last few months, and I just started playing recently, was running good and then ran horrible again. I just decided whatever and to play some cashg ame again. The guy was really aggro, and he reraised me again, so I decided to play back. I didn't sit out, I just ran out of money because I withdrew all my money before and it was all I had, and the rest of my money was on other tables, and I won some back in HU.
I don't know if this is good enough or whatever, but just so you know I don't even bet in prop bets, nor have I ever been involved in prop bets.
Thanks.
4. Nostalgica / RoSeeker did NOT disclose the extent of his relationship withbreeezzz, he downplayed it.
5. Nostalgica did not post ANYTHING about his relationship with StoppedClock prior to my posting. This in itself might be fine, since that name was not brought up. After my post, he merely wrote her off as an acquaintence from school that they occasionally talked about poker.
6. Gary makes claims of losing pots to StoppedClock, but doesn't post them when asked.
7. Many people call out RoSeeker to provide transfer histories, he does not respond. Gary did post a screen shot of 7 days of Stars history the night after the prop bet without any hesitation.
8. In general (jalexand's opinion here) the involved parties are evasive, and do not cooperate with requests, instead choosing to wait and see how
Stars reacts to this reported activity.
9. Nostalgica's statements about 'watching' breeezzz's play is very suspicious:
http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/sh...postcount=1981
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On 3/24, I post asking Nostalgica if he multiaccounts stars, he immediately denies it:
http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/sh...postcount=1588
Shortly after that I post conclusive proof he IS multiaccounting Stars.
http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/sh...postcount=1606
Obviously this doesn't have anything directly to do with the prop, but it does go to discrediting RoSeeker. RoSeeker disappears from the thread for a while.
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I post a threat to disclose the personal information I gathered on the suspected parties if they are proven guilty, UNLESS they come forward.
http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/sh...postcount=1830
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On 3/26, I get a PM from RoSeeker asserting his innocent again and about how he's scared to reveal stuff to me, I respond to him and publicly that I am willing to post $10,000 in escrow if they allow me to review their transaction histories and other potentially personal details.
http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/sh...postcount=2298
Gary, breeezzz, and StoppedClock (who I doubt reads 2p2) do not respond other than Gary does post that his Stars account is locked. But he doesn't
email them asking for it or offer to give up FTP transfer histories.
There are lots of PM's between RoSeeker and myself about this offer, againthat seem very shady to me. For example:
3/27 -
NEW INFORMATION
Quote:
Is the OP's guilt alone enough? Is my association with those players or the fact that I have done transfers with them (both of which I have already confessed) enough? I understand that the decision is based on a combination of factors, but as I am (imo) innocent, I know that all that can be shown is a link between these players and I. Will that very fact, that I have done transfers with or at the request of cheater(s) (if they are prove/judged to be cheaters) make me one too? Will a site be made for me too for "shielding" cheaters if that, instead, is decided to be the case?
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On 3/28, RoSeeker admits to transfers with StoppedClock
http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/sh...postcount=2415
He also forwards me emails from Stars and FTP for his transaction histories on the RoSeeker and Sol Reader accounts. He does this BEFORE I post the
escrow.
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On 3/29, I post the escrow:
http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/sh...postcount=2512
Later that day, we get on teamviewer. He doesn't have his Stars RSA key, so he can't let me view the transaction histories, which was the entire purpose of the teamviewer. Instead, he intended to let me SEE him forwarding the Stars/FTP e-mails instead. I personally do not believe they are doctored, so I tell him not to bother. He does forward me the Nostalgica transaction history while we are on teamviewer.
After that part of the teamviewer, I ask him w/o any warning to show me his instant messenger log with Gary. He tanks forever and refuses. I posted
the chat of the teamviewer session here:
http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/sh...postcount=2561
After the session, he PM'ed me saying he found is RSA key, and we agreed to setup another session on 3/30.
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RoSeeker is also removed as a coach on one of his coaching sites for lying to the admins:
http://grinderschool.com/grinderscho...l-reader.shtml
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While I'm asleep I get a PM from RoSeeker refusing to do the second teamviewer session. I posted it here:
http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/sh...postcount=2661
Okay that should provide cliffnotes to everything that's been disclosed so far, new information coming now. Please let me know if you see any errors.
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Here's the final information so this post can be referred to easily:
http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/sh...postcount=2792
http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/sh...postcount=2796
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RoSeeker confession:
http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/sh...postcount=2928
Gary confession:
http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/sh...postcount=2929
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Last edited by Mike Haven; 03-31-2010 at 12:58 PM.