It was more a knock on the site that is predicting a 58% win probability for Seattle after eeking by a worse team and defense (per their rankings) when the other team dominated. I do not think Denver's defense is better than Seattle's, it's more like lolDVOA lol goalpost shifting.

Peyton seems really relaxed. Denver's going to win by more than a score imo.

Oh, well then.

Did you catch Needle's breakdown? Cliffs - LOL Bevell LOL Wilson.

Haven't had a chance. Did he suggest otherwise? There's no world in which Seattle's offense is better than SD/NE.

Earl Thomas 2 picks 1 for a TD and MVP imo.

Also Kam forcibly removes at least one Denver player from the game via brain injury.

Nice, never felt better about this game.

BUT TALIB GOT HURT JMILL THAT WAS THE GAME CHANGER.

Nevermind that DT turned him around twice before he got taken out. And dids, have you seen Denver play this year? I don't think Denver runs the kind of routes that put his receivers in a position to take a big hit from a safety.

I appreciate the work Needle does, as he's clearly more knowledgeable about football strategy and tactics than ~anybody in this forum. That said, I'd be careful taking everything he says as gospel. For example, (iirc) earlier this year he made the claim that Brandon Browner is a better cover corner than Richard Sherman. This may have been true based on the limited sample of film he was looking at, but if you look at both of their bodies of work, that's pretty clearly not the case. This isn't to impugn Needle's work overall, but just a reminder to cast a skeptical eye toward everything you read, including the smart guys.

And yeah, I think Wilson's become underrated.

I doubt he's underrated. Basically everyone puts him in the mess of QB's outside the elite tier, and everyone (except probably Clark and SRM) have him > Kaep.

It's amazing anyone could possibly have him > Kaep.

You still have Kaep as the #2 asset in the league?

Maybe not in the grand scheme of things, but the punditerati tend to be low on his chances for the Super Bowl because he had a poorish 5 game stretch. I could see him surprising a lot of people in this one even if the Seahawks lose.

Won't disagree with lol Bevell though

Watching the needle previews now, thanks for those!

At worst the numbers suggest that Browner and Sherman are close. I think watching the film shows just how much more demanding the RCB position is than the LCB position in the Seahawk defense. This is by no means a knock on Sherman who is still in the top part of league CB's. The guy is terrific and rally's better than any CB not named Asomugha that I have seen.

Denver Defense - Playoff Edition

First half: 8 drives, 1 made FG, 1 missed FG
Second half: 7 drives, 4 TDs, 1 FG, 1 downs, 1 punt

No turnover.

This is well below average performance. though close enough to being average considering opponents. The reason they looked decent is that Peyton Manning kept the defense off the field, resulting in very few drives for SD and NE, who averaged about the same number of points per drive against Denver as they did against an average opponent during the regular season, while completely avoiding turnovers.

This is pretty bad analysis. Not all drives are equal.

What numbers suggest that? Genuinely curious. And your assertion that RCB is more demanding may be true, but if so why do they keep sticking the replacement CB (Thurmond, Maxwell) in the RCB spot instead of moving Sherman over? Just because Sherman is used to playing that spot?

PFF has its uses.

And Sherman most definitely fits into the mold of LCB better than RCB of the Hawk defense because it's setup much like Revis style Jets defense. Shutdown a half of the field and force balls thrown into our ball skill guys. The Seahawks want the RCB to play on the ball and cover well with the safety sitting free in the middle and force passes to the LCB side of the field, whether thats at sherman or Chancellor in his monster back position or into the group of man in the LB corps.

Sherman has tier 1 ball skills in the NFL. You want to force certain routes and passes into that style of play. So Sherman plays off much more often than the RCB would to give up certain routes(in's, stops, whips, ect).

How do those numbers not show Sherman as clearly having performed better?

What needle says in the game previews =/= his opinions of players over a small sample. It doesn't take a genius to see that Russell has 1 read for each play before he takes off and has little pocket awareness, doees't move safeties with his eyes, etc, nor is it difficult to ascertain that Russell either doesn't have the freedom to audible like the guy he's going against. Needles breakdowns are just excellent at illustrating things like this to us newbs.

Does the film bear out that the RCB tends to press at the line much more than Sherman? Everything I've read about the Seahawks makes no mention of the strategy you're talking about, though it obviously makes sense. FWIW, both stats and my eye test have had Byron Maxwell outplaying Browner since he got suspended.

Sherman has a larger sample this year. But nearly no YAC, comparable catch% against and Browner's y/r is lower playing what seems like a more demanding spot in the defense.

Maxwell maybe the best performing player on the defense though.

But a Sherman debate or whatever is one I have little interest in and doing these "drive analysis" isn't so much to care about the specific players but more about what is going on on the field and how teams are approaching the games.

But for full disclosure here is Maxwell who may have outperformed both of those guys:

Sure, but Sherman prevents targets (only 3.3 targets/game against him all season, about 1.5 targets/game less than Browner), and those picks.

I don't know enough about the context to say that definitively means one thing or another, but preventing targets seems more meaningful than YAC or yards/rec (yards/target seems like by far the most meaningful "efficiency" stat, which Browner does have a slight edge on Sherman on, but outweighed by Sherman's target prevention). And intercepting 13.3% of targets thrown your way over an 18-game sample is just absurd even when you apply a healthy dose of regression.

Not to get into a lengthy debate or anything, but those numbers just don't suggest "At worst Browner and Sherman are close" to me.

Just went through each play of the 49er game. The RCB plays off twice while Sherman is off the ball 12+ times.

Edit @Boot: Sherman > Browner.