Then you should know he's pretty well known for not being able to jus be "held on the ground til the end of the round"

That's almost 70%, and I consider that fairly one-sided in sports

And I think that's closer to the low end of how it opens Assani

Anyway I think the lines will make Shogun a 7/3 favorite and I think Shogun's side of it is the better side.

Rashad's chin avoiding Shogun's hands for 5 rounds seems like something out of a fairy tale

Has Shogun ever lost or even been in much trouble versus a grappler? He broke his arm vs Coleman so I'm not sure that counts

I edited it down to -200/+180.

So do you think the Lakers/Celtics is "one sided" as well? Do you think every NFL game with a 3.5 point favorite is "one sided"? I don't have the stats to back this up, but it seems to me like > 50% of UFC fights have one guy as a -200 favorite or better. Maybe we're just arguing semantics then, but you made it seem like Shogun would be a massive favorite over Rashad.

Well I did just say I think he's even bigger than 70% realistically, hence will be taking that said.

I'll bet you that he opens larger than -200 if you wanna bet on betting lines.

I don't think he's 200, I think he's probably closer to -300 (realistically) and that's one sided imo

I mean I could be wrong who knows, but I'm pretty confident he's well over 60% in a 5 round fight, and I think -200 is a major major steal if that's an accurate prediction

I think the LHW division is overrated. I heard MMA Live talking about how strong it was and I really disagree.

I think the top 2 are clear in Shogun and Machida and then it gets blurry.

Right now I'd put Rashad and Lawal on par and then the next tier has Rampage, Forrest, Nogueira, Mousasi, etc

I'd really like to see Rashad vs Lawal

Okay, Shogun is 19-4 overall per sherdog. Now let's remove the wins against fighters that are not in the "good fighter" class. We're removing:

Rafael Capoeira
Angelo Antonio
Evangelista Santos
Eric Wanderlei
Akira Shoji
Akihiro Gono
Yasuhito Namekawa
Hiromitsu Kanehara
Cyrille Diabate

So that leaves Shogun at 10-4 against good fighters. That's right around 70% wins. And Rashad is better than some of the fighters we didn't remove from Shogun's past record. So how exactly is Shogun better than 70/30 against Rashad, who has fought 6 good fighters in a row and beaten 5 of them?

I know, this isn't a great analysis and styles make fights and Shogun has fought more good guys, and that's all fair, but seriously, thinking that Shogun is going to just walk right through Rashad is a bit much, imo.

It does seem like the beef here doesn't come from people siding with Rashad, just that it's not a complete wash. Also it should be pointed out, people are talking about Shogun's standup like he's some Muy Thai world beater. He's not. Granted, in the Machida fights and in the Chuck Fight has hands have looked better than before, but he used to be a complete spaz with his hands, threw loopy garbage punches, and never had any kind of head movement. He has always been a good kicker, and good in the Thai clinch, but overall he's not some kind of anderson silva-esque striker. Rewatch the Nakamura/Shogun fight from Pride 33. Nakamura is putting hands all over him. Even rewatch the Shogun/Coleman fight from a couple years ago, you won't be that impressed. He's definately shorn up some of his problem areas, but he's not some kind of super dynamo on his feet. Most of his stoppages come from ground n pound (include soccer kicks and stomps in there).

Also all clinches are not created equally. Clinching up against the fence is not the same as being inside the Muy Thai clinch. If Rashad put Shogun in the same position he put Rampage against the cage, Shogun might have more success, but he's not going to be murdering Rashad with knees from there. I'm not convinced that grinding him up against the cage would be as terrible an idea as has been indicated.

I'm also not totally willing to say Shogun has fixed all his past cardio issues. He hasn't gone past the first round all that often, and when he has, he has often gassed. In the past 7 years he's gone to decision 3 times, the close controversial decision win vs Minotoro, the Nakamura fight, and the first Machida Fight. And in two of his most recent performances that went into the 3rd round, he looked brutally gassed vs Coleman and Griffin. Those are all of his fights that left the first round since 2004. Cardio certainly seemed not to be an issue in the 5 round Machida fight, but that's all we're going on right now. Not enough to give me ultimate confidence.

After all that, I still think Shogun is going to win, I just think people are overlooking a lot of problems and questions that still surround Shogun. He's suddenly a world beater again after KOing an old and fading Chuck Liddell, losing a close decision to Machida and then Whalloping him in the Rematch. A good run, but lets keep things in perspective.

If I'd never heard of these guys and all I had to go on was the internet talk (not just here), I'd think Shogun is like 30-1 and Rashad is like 20-10.

In reality, Shogun has lost twice in his last five fights and Rashad has lost once ever. Shogun is not the freaking Terminator.

I still think Shogun will probably win, but if you can get on Rashad +250 (and I think that might actually be available) there's crazy good value there, imo.

Just erase this post while the option is still available

Not yet imo - but yes, probably at the end of his career. Would be nice to see a title defend but can't argue with that.

Shogun

Lyoto Machida
Chuck Liddell
Mark Coleman
Alistair Overeem
Nakamura
Kevin Randleman
Ricardo Arona
Overeem x2
Lil Nog
Rampage Jackson

Lyoto's list just isn't as good. It would be

Stephan Bonnar
Rich Franklin
BJ Penn
Vernon White
Nakamura
Sokoudjou
Tito Ortiz
Thiago Silva
Rashad Evans
Shogun Rua


Shogun has more, better wins over guys in or around their prime imo, especially his Pride run. His accomplishments are also better. Shogun was considered the #1 LHW in the world for a good while. He's the PRIDE 205 GP winner and a UFC champion. Of his four losses, none are bad. One to Babalu in his fifth pro fight. One to Coleman via freak accident. One to Griffin where he got dominated but had ring-rust/injury. One to Machida via decision in a fight he really won. Machida's only lost once but it's a worse loss than any of Shogun's (arguably)

Lyoto simply hasn't got the names on the list or the championship/ranking accomplishments that Shogun does.

As of now, I'd rate the LHWs something like

1a. Chuck
1b. Wanderlei
1c. Shogun

Chuck and Wandy have been the clear first two career-wise for a while, but Shogun's recent KO of Lyoto puts him damn close. If he defends the title a couple of times I'd probably think he passes Chuck and Wandy.

not sure how his image as #1 ever will look after he gets destroyed one or two times by silva :0

I am a Shogun fan but I said Shogun could never land a punch on Machida 1 year ago....

true that, hes full of surprises .

If Shogun retired after beating Rashad by KO then he would retire as the GOAT at LHW.

Wins over Rampage, Arona, Machida (by far the most impressive), prime Lil' Nog, Alistair Overeem (before Uber, however), and Rashad is more impressive than the careers of either Wand or Chuck

Shogun is only 28 btw.

He has at least 3 more years before he even might start slowing down.

If Rashad does manage to beat Shogun: How long until Machida rebeats Rashad for the title?

Machida is a much worse matchup for Rashad because of Lyoto's redic TDD.

And the day Rashad manages to outstrike Lyoto Machida on the feet will be a cold day in hell.

And once Lyoto rebeats Rashad for the belt, how long until Shogun makes it 3/3 against Machida?

Yea but Lyoto vs Shogun is still a great fight, and Lyoto can win it obviously, even though Shogun seems to have him number.

we might see a machida/shogun 4 imo

hahah i'm rewatching the shogun/machida fight and it's ridiculous how easily machida takes down shogun

Man, if Shogun-Rashad was judged with the PRIDE criteria Shogun would be a much bigger favorite (-400 imo)

But with the North American judges rewarding takedowns with such vigor Shogun is down to -225 in my mind.

i cant imagine rua fighting as stupid as rampage, even if he has worse takedown defense...

I mean, if rashad gets wobbly once in 5 rounds I think it's over.
Id take shosho at -225