UK Politics Thread - Page 247 - Politics and Economics

Encouraging doiscussion with a friend of mine. We're both voting labour but she was doing it depite JC who she thought was a very poor leader.

It's something we've argued about a lot and she was adamant until the last week or so. The election campaign has changed her mind about JC and maybe even about what makes a good leader. Just an anacdote but maybe partly indicative of why Labour is doing better.

05-30-2017 , 05:58 PM

#6153

jalfrezi

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 12,807

Quote:

Originally Posted by theonepunter

YouGov has made a prediction for the UK General Election.

I'll summarise:
Tories: 310
Labour: 257
SNP: 50
Lib Dem: 10

It's behind a Times Newspaper paywall but image on twitter.

Literally very close to a Labour government. Remember that the Tories have no friends apart from the DUP and maybe the Lib Dems.

In this scenario I would be interested to see which way the Lib Dems would go because I don't necessarily think it would be to back Labour.

Although I doubt it will turn out this way, it's an interesting question.

Historically (70's onwards) the Libs were much closer to Labour (Lib/Lab pact), but the selection of the right wing Clegg as their leader put paid to that. Would Farron, who seems more left wing than Clegg, risk the same fate by entering a coalition with the Tories?

05-30-2017 , 05:59 PM

#6154

GBV

banned

Join Date: Dec 2002 Posts: 1,331

Quote:

Originally Posted by theonepunter

The SNP would do a deal with the Tories. I know this isn't a fashionable view-but then it wasn't of the LD's either. If you look closely at the SNP's actions more or less everything they have ever done has helped the Tories. Labour is a disaster for them, they'd solve the economic problems which fuel nationalism.

They'll never admit this publicly, which is why the leaked Sturgeon memo during the last election was so swiftly buried.

05-30-2017 , 06:55 PM

#6155

epcfast

veteran

Join Date: Feb 2009 Posts: 2,535

Fake poll to mobilise the sleeping tory vote.
Scariest thing about a slender tory majority would be the inevitable gove/johnson/rudd? leadership challenge with another unelected arsehole becoming PM

05-31-2017 , 02:33 AM

#6156

Elrazor

losing momentum

Join Date: Mar 2007 Posts: 13,856

Quote:

Originally Posted by GBV

Labour is a disaster for them, they'd solve the economic problems which fuel nationalism.

05-31-2017 , 03:33 AM

#6157

O.A.F.K.1.1

Ted Patrick

Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 27,952

lol people discussing possible coalitions without factoring Brexit positions.

Lds would do a deal with whomever promised another referendum on the actual deal made with EU.

Joy.

05-31-2017 , 03:51 AM

#6158

joejoe1337

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jun 2007 Posts: 16,226

Quote:

Originally Posted by Brussels Sprout

Betfair have a No Majority @ 7/1 right now. Ridiculous value if that analysis is in any way accurate

In order of what you should trust, the betfair market comes way way way way way way way waaaaaaaaaaaaaaay before a single poll.

05-31-2017 , 04:20 AM

#6159

BlueWillow

centurion

Join Date: Jan 2017 Posts: 175

Quote:

Originally Posted by joejoe1337

In order of what you should trust, the betfair market comes way way way way way way way waaaaaaaaaaaaaaay before a single poll.

Betfair had Brexit as 1/9 to remain - and a private poll paid for by Chris Rokos, Christian Odey and the Bluecrest guy had Brexit as favourite.

So, no?

05-31-2017 , 04:33 AM

#6160

GBV

banned

Join Date: Dec 2002 Posts: 1,331

Quote:

Originally Posted by joejoe1337

In order of what you should trust, the betfair market comes way way way way way way way waaaaaaaaaaaaaaay before a single poll.

It sounded like negative value to me.

05-31-2017 , 04:35 AM

#6161

GBV

banned

Join Date: Dec 2002 Posts: 1,331

Quote:

Originally Posted by BlueWillow

Betfair had Brexit as 1/9 to remain - and a private poll paid for by Chris Rokos, Christian Odey and the Bluecrest guy had Brexit as favourite.

So, no?

The problem with your reasoning is that, even if the market was priced perfectly, 1/9 shots fail to come in sometimes. One time in nine.

I saw a lot of this reasoning in the US "They said Hilary Clinton had a 90% chance to win!". Yes, she did, on the basis of the available data.

05-31-2017 , 04:36 AM

#6162

deathorglory0

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Nov 2007 Posts: 4,464

Quote:

Originally Posted by GBV

The SNP would do a deal with the Tories.

Hahahahahahahahahahahaha. No.

05-31-2017 , 04:51 AM

#6163

joejoe1337

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jun 2007 Posts: 16,226

Quote:

Originally Posted by BlueWillow

Betfair had Brexit as 1/9 to remain - and a private poll paid for by Chris Rokos, Christian Odey and the Bluecrest guy had Brexit as favourite.

So, no?

Quote:

Originally Posted by joejoe1337

In order of what you should trust, the betfair market comes way way way way way way way waaaaaaaaaaaaaaay before a single poll.

Think about what you're saying. If we decide, post-hoc, to look at whatever data happens to fit the result than we can use it to explain anything. That's absurd because in the run up to an election we can't cherrypick the data that will be correct. There are literally hundreds of polls and focusing on a specific poll because it suits a particular narrative is extremely foolish.

05-31-2017 , 05:19 AM

#6164

tomdemaine

Just tries harder

Join Date: Feb 2005 Posts: 20,065

We need to get expectations to the point where the tories won't bother coming out to vote because it's a foregone conclusion and labour people will be motivated to vote because 'you never know'. Known as the clinton zone.

05-31-2017 , 05:29 AM

#6165

joejoe1337

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jun 2007 Posts: 16,226

The Tories have been very good at manufacturing against that. Even when they had a 20 point lead they continually said "it's not a foregone conclusion".

05-31-2017 , 06:56 AM

#6166

GBV

banned

Join Date: Dec 2002 Posts: 1,331

Quote:

Originally Posted by tomdemaine

The Tories always mobilize their vote.

The key for Labour will be if they manage to get the youth vote out. This has proven historically difficult. However, Labour do have an impressive membership, so you couldn't rule it out even though going on precedent it won't happen.

05-31-2017 , 07:52 AM

#6167

sixfour

should be called sevenfour

Join Date: Dec 2005 Posts: 74,856

Interesting to see Labour sending me personally a flyer in our 1/200 Tory win seat. Also interesting to see a lot of "Labour closing in poles" while the odds of a Labour win have lengthened

05-31-2017 , 07:57 AM

#6168

Husker

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Feb 2007 Posts: 12,923

No way the SNP are ever doing a deal with the Tories these days. Their campaign and rhetoric has been very anti-Tory these past few years (despite continuing many of their policies). The current campaign is basically about keeping the Tories out. A large part of the reason for that though is when you can't campaign on your record, and they can't as its woeful, then you've got to attack others. It's similar to what the Tories are also doing in Scotland in a sense.

05-31-2017 , 08:01 AM

#6169

joejoe1337

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jun 2007 Posts: 16,226

Quote:

Originally Posted by sixfour

Interesting to see Labour sending me personally a flyer in our 1/200 Tory win seat. Also interesting to see a lot of "Labour closing in poles" while the odds of a Labour win have lengthened

"most seats" market has gone from like 97% chance to a 93% chance on betfair

05-31-2017 , 08:05 AM

#6170

Elrazor

losing momentum

Join Date: Mar 2007 Posts: 13,856

Corbyn going to appear in the debate tonight on BBC1, and has challenged May to join him.

05-31-2017 , 08:28 AM

#6171

MultiTabling

old hand

Join Date: Aug 2012 Posts: 1,849

Quote:

Originally Posted by GBV

Young people will always turn out in far lower numbers than old people. I can't see that ever changing. The only way it does change is by running a good looking, charismatic male candidate who they can relate to. A candidate who is "down with the kids", figuratively speaking. Obama was the closest we've come to that and young people turned out in large numbers for him. I can't remember any UK party leader who was similar to that.

Quote:

Originally Posted by sixfour

Interesting to see Labour sending me personally a flyer in our 1/200 Tory win seat. Also interesting to see a lot of "Labour closing in poles" while the odds of a Labour win have lengthened

I'd like to point out that Remain in EU was as low as 1.06 on Betfair. Clinton got down to 1.1. They both lost.

05-31-2017 , 08:43 AM

#6172

diebitter

Grotesquely Handsome

Join Date: Mar 2005 Posts: 65,741

Quote:

Originally Posted by Elrazor

Corbyn going to appear in the debate tonight on BBC1, and has challenged May to join him.

Hah nice trolling! Well played!

05-31-2017 , 08:44 AM

#6173

sixfour

should be called sevenfour

Join Date: Dec 2005 Posts: 74,856

Quote:

Originally Posted by joejoe1337

"most seats" market has gone from like 97% chance to a 93% chance on betfair

Seems to have gone from 8/1 Labour to 9/1 on oddschecker

05-31-2017 , 08:49 AM

#6174

joejoe1337

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jun 2007 Posts: 16,226

Can still get 13/2 on them though. I guess it depends as to whether you should look at the best possible price or shortest price at this kind of thing. Can't be arsed to work out the median/mode.

05-31-2017 , 10:32 AM

#6175

BOIDS

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Apr 2017 Posts: 13,964

gonna look terrible for the tories when may doesn't turn up. still think labour need a couple more mega cockups in their favour before this becomes a proper sweat tho

spoilered for cool story bro content:

Spoiler:

Page 247 of 486

First

47 147 197 227 237 242 243 244 245 246 247 248 249 250 251 252 257 267 297 347 447

Last

...

Page 247 of 486

First

47 147 197 227 237 242 243 244 245 246 247 248 249 250 251 252 257 267 297 347 447

Last