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The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: No smocking guns. The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: No smocking guns.

12-29-2018 , 12:33 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rococo
Here is Politfact on the $300 billion claim:



https://www.politifact.com/truth-o-m...llion-annuall/



As this article explains, the $300 billion number is highly misleading (and not limited to illegal immigrants). But it's just as wrong to deny that the actual economic impact of immigration is a very complex question.
It's a.complex question that has been answered over and over, and always in the same way, by reputable methodology. Pretending that there is still uncertainty in the matter is straight bull**** gaslighting.
12-29-2018 , 12:33 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kintamayama
Because there's no way those radical Muslims could ever come up with the idea of entering the country from the North.
They’d be crazy to enter from the North in the winter, for the night is dark and full of terrors.
12-29-2018 , 12:33 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Joshfan
This is just such a dumb response to the argument "a border wall will reduce illegal immigration"
the conversation probably should have ended back when i pointed out how prolific humans are at climbing and tunnelling

but alas, here we are
12-29-2018 , 12:39 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by MrWookie
OK, how about you

1. Post a peer reviewed, reputable study showing a large cost of illegal immigration to show how knowledgeable you are, or
2. Post a bull**** study from an anti immigration think tank so we can mock you for cherry picking and believing bull****, or
3. Post a citation to a hate group and get banned, or
4. Post here openly eating crow, or
5. Enjoy some time off.
This is the article I read: https://www.politifact.com/truth-o-m...llion-annuall/

It even questions some things but says it's half-true at the end. So let's make the number 150 billion.

Now how about demanding people show a reference that backs up a wall will increase crossings?
12-29-2018 , 12:40 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by businessdude
A lot of uncertainty about what illegal immigrants do to the economy - one study said $300 billion net cost, some say neutral, some say slightly positive. The point is I don't think any economists are saying the US economy rests on a large influx of unskilled uneducated workers. So I don't see a huge upside to it, controlling who gets in is a good thing, a wall helps with that, so what's the downside? (I do agree cost would be the biggest negative of a wall.)
You’re wrong. There are a ton of studies on how a negative bithrate / population decline are terrible for an economy. Just look at Japan and what’s happening there for an example. The US’s population numbers are only in the positive because of immigration, in stark contrast to a lot of other first world countries with homogenous populations.
12-29-2018 , 12:41 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by zikzak
Not like the brazen giant of Greek fame,

With conquering limbs astride from land to land;

Here at our sea-washed, sunset gates shall stand

A mighty woman with a torch, whose flame

Is the imprisoned lightning, and her name

MOTHER OF EXILES. From her beacon-hand

Glows world-wide welcome; her mild eyes command

The air-bridged harbor that twin cities frame.



"Keep, ancient lands, your storied pomp!" cries she

With silent lips. "Give me your tired, your poor,

Your huddled masses yearning to breathe free,

The wretched refuse of your teeming shore.

Send these, the homeless, tempest-tost to me,

I lift my lamp beside the golden door!"


Give me your whites

The end.
12-29-2018 , 12:42 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by realDonaldTrump

( twitter | raw text )
Why does Trump want democrats to stop the military?
12-29-2018 , 12:43 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by businessdude
This is the article I read: https://www.politifact.com/truth-o-m...llion-annuall/

It even questions some things but says it's half-true at the end. So let's make the number 150 billion.

Now how about demanding people show a reference that backs up a wall will increase crossings?


You are a moron
12-29-2018 , 12:45 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by businessdude
This is the article I read: https://www.politifact.com/truth-o-m...llion-annuall/

It even questions some things but says it's half-true at the end. So let's make the number 150 billion.

Now how about demanding people show a reference that backs up a wall will increase crossings?
Sorry, #6, blatantly lie about the contents of your own citation so you can pretend to still be correct was not an acceptable response. We're down to 4 or 5.
12-29-2018 , 12:46 PM
The only part that matters from that politifact link:

Quote:
The overall effect of immigration on economic growth was positive. Whatever costs immigrants might present now will be "paid back" by overall economic growth that will lead to more tax revenue on average for the government and less demand for need-based benefit programs.
12-29-2018 , 12:49 PM
link/quote of post claiming wall will increase crossings
12-29-2018 , 12:51 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by zikzak
Neither author writes like that or about that sort of thing. You might want to try Ian Fleming or Robert Ludlum.

One interesting thing Fleming and Ludlum have in common is that their novels got noticeable better after they died and started being written by other people.
I was once on the Metro reading the Bourne Supremacy, which is insanely horrible nonsense, and some pretentious wannabe sitting next to me rolled his eyes about how much worse the (really really good) movie (which actually shares no plot elements with the book) was.

Bond novels are also completely unreadable. Like, in the book version of Casino Royale, Bond gets sent in to the casino because he's the best baccarat player that MI6 has.
12-29-2018 , 12:51 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by businessdude
This is the article I read: https://www.politifact.com/truth-o-m...llion-annuall/

It even questions some things but says it's half-true at the end. So let's make the number 150 billion.

Now how about demanding people show a reference that backs up a wall will increase crossings?
The cost claim doesn't actually consider the net benefits in the figure and your claim was that some studies claim 300 billion NET cost.

From the study you are using as your reference:


"Immigration has an overall positive impact on long-run economic growth in the U.S. "
"Immigration has an overall positive impact on long-run economic growth in the U.S. "
"Immigration has an overall positive impact on long-run economic growth in the U.S. "
"Immigration has an overall positive impact on long-run economic growth in the U.S. "
"Immigration has an overall positive impact on long-run economic growth in the U.S. "
"Immigration has an overall positive impact on long-run economic growth in the U.S. "
"Immigration has an overall positive impact on long-run economic growth in the U.S. "
"Immigration has an overall positive impact on long-run economic growth in the U.S. "
12-29-2018 , 12:52 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by wheatrich
I'm well aware of that but their point is not aggregate/total or whatever, it's any at all. They'll spend billions to keep one out. They dgaf.

A bunch of you lock doors despite the criminal being able to just smash your window and get in anyway. So why don't you all leave all your doors unlocked from now on? Oh right, that would be stupid.


Reality is in political forums most of you don't care because you just want to mock/belittle/call everyone who disagrees an idiot/stupid/moron whatever rather than actually trying not to be one yourself. I admit that annoys me.

I don't want to do that (though I'm sure I have many times).

Maybe that's the irony of politics--deep down left and right act very similar and you still can't get along. Sad.
Arent you literally doing that in this post?
12-29-2018 , 12:54 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by businessdude
This is the article I read: https://www.politifact.com/truth-o-m...llion-annuall/

It even questions some things but says it's half-true at the end. So let's make the number 150 billion.

Now how about demanding people show a reference that backs up a wall will increase crossings?
businessdude,

Are you that stupid or doing it on purpose? I never claimed it WOULD just that "common sense" can't determine the answer as there are opposing factors and I gave a reason I didn't make up, but came from Border Patrol's initial reaction to the wall.

The only assertion being made is that it will prevent crossings, presumably on net otherwise what's the point. You cite something that a wall resembling the Trump plan spanning a length approaching the US-Mexico border with staffing similar to what could reasonably be expected would lower net illegal crossing.

Waste of typing there though, I don't know if you won't read it, can't understanding it or will continue in bad faith (lying really), but it's one of those things.
12-29-2018 , 12:54 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by businessdude
This is the article I read: https://www.politifact.com/truth-o-m...llion-annuall/

It even questions some things but says it's half-true at the end. So let's make the number 150 billion.

Now how about demanding people show a reference that backs up a wall will increase crossings?
Come on, dude. This isn't the article that you got the $300 million number from. This is Politfact's debunking of the Washington Times article that you read. And it sure as hell doesn't say, or even imply, that the correct number is $150 billion. That's a straight up misrepresentation of your own link.
12-29-2018 , 12:57 PM
My two cents about the wall:

If President Kamala Harris or whoever gave 5 billion dollars for wall construction, I really wouldn't care. I would assume that they did their homework and found that a wall in spot X was the best way to control the flow of migration.

That said, I don't want Donald Trump to build a wall, even if it cost 0 dollars. There's no hypocrisy in this, because the entire world knows what the wall symbolizes for Donald Trump and his racist supporters and why they want it so bad. No one would shut down the government for a mere 5 billion dollars in border security. The symbolism of the wall is the real objective here, and that is what I don't want to see achieved.
12-29-2018 , 12:58 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by businessdude
You are the worst.
Wookie is perpetually prone to hyperbole, but in this case he is exactly correct. You are willfully misrepresenting the very article that you linked to.

And I highly doubt you had ever read the article until I posted it twenty minutes before you did.
12-29-2018 , 01:00 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by bobman0330
Bond novels are also completely unreadable. Like, in the book version of Casino Royale, Bond gets sent in to the casino because he's the best baccarat player that MI6 has.
This is not even close to being one of the worst things about that book. I Don't Even Own a Television has a good episode on Casino Royale.
12-29-2018 , 01:01 PM
Re: economics of border walls

There's an interesting recent NBER working paper that looked at the impact from an expansion of border fencing due to the 2006 Secure Fence Act (full text here). They also did some analysis comparing that policy decision to some other policies that might have been implemented instead:

Background:

Quote:
The border wall expansion we study was a result of the Secure Fence Act of 2006, which authorized the construction of reinforced fencing in California, Arizona, New Mexico, and Texas. Between 2007 and 2010, 548 miles of wall were constructed along the 1,954-mile U.S.-Mexico border, bringing the total fencing to 658 miles. Since unauthorized migrants typically cross the border by foot (Massey, Durand, and Malone (2003)), the extension of the wall altered the relative costs of migration across origin and destination pairs. By combining this geographic variation with a confidential version of the Matrícula Consular (Consular ID card) database that provides detailed information on the bilateral flows of (primarily unauthorized) Mexican migrants between 3,000 different regions in the United States and Mexico, we examine how the patterns of migration changed after the expansion of the border wall.
The impact of new fencing:

Quote:
...we find that the border wall expansion caused a decline in migration flows: a 10% increase in the total travel time necessary to avoid the border wall resulted in a 1.4% reduction in bilateral migration flows. This result is robust to accounting for the response of border patrol enforcement, controlling for different types of border walls, and instrumenting the location of the wall expansion using geographic predictors of where the wall was built.
So that's $7 per person to increase low-skilled laborers wages by $0.36 (cf. p. 33)

On alternative policy:

Quote:
First, we consider experiments that “fill in” some of the gaps in the wall to understand if our small effects are driven by the fact that the wall only partially covers the U.S.-Mexico border. We find no evidence of such nonlinearities: filling in half of the remaining gaps on the border would reduce the number of Mexican migrants by 144,000 yet increase the economic benefit to only $0.58 per low-skill U.S. worker.

Second, we consider an experiment that reduces the international trade costs between the United States and Mexico. We find that, like the border wall expansion, this reduction in trade costs also reduced the number of Mexican workers in the United States. For example, a trade policy that reduced the impact of distance on international trade flows one-quarter of the way toward the impact of distance on domestic trade flows would have reduced the number of Mexican workers residing in the United States by about 123,000. However, unlike the border wall expansion, reducing trade costs results in large economic benefits for both U.S. and Mexican workers. For example, a 25% reduction in the additional international cost of distance would would yield a benefit of equivalent to a $59 increase in income for each low-skill U.S. worker and even greater gains for low-skill Mexican workers and high-skill workers of both nationalities.
Overall impact:

Quote:
Taken together, this suggests that for each fewer migrant in the United States as a result of the Secure Fence Act, GDP declined by $30,000 (in addition to the direct costs of wall construction).
12-29-2018 , 01:02 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rococo
Wookie is perpetually prone to hyperbole, but in this case he is exactly correct. You are willfully misrepresenting the very article that you linked to.

And I highly doubt you had ever read the article until I posted it twenty minutes before you did.
well, you'd be wrong of course - it's a top hit if you use google
12-29-2018 , 01:02 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by realDonaldTrump

( twitter | raw text )
Quote:
Originally Posted by realDonaldTrump

( twitter | raw text )
12-29-2018 , 01:04 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by AllTheCheese
My two cents about the wall:

If President Kamala Harris or whoever gave 5 billion dollars for wall construction, I really wouldn't care. I would assume that they did their homework and found that a wall in spot X was the best way to control the flow of migration.

That said, I don't want Donald Trump to build a wall, even if it cost 0 dollars. There's no hypocrisy in this, because the entire world knows what the wall symbolizes for Donald Trump and his racist supporters and why they want it so bad. No one would shut down the government for a mere 5 billion dollars in border security. The symbolism of the wall is the real objective here, and that is what I don't want to see achieved.
I would. Bad policy should be called out, regardless of who proposes it.
12-29-2018 , 01:06 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by kre8tive
is good
12-29-2018 , 01:10 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by AllTheCheese
My two cents about the wall:

If President Kamala Harris or whoever gave 5 billion dollars for wall construction, I really wouldn't care. I would assume that they did their homework and found that a wall in spot X was the best way to control the flow of migration.

That said, I don't want Donald Trump to build a wall, even if it cost 0 dollars. There's no hypocrisy in this, because the entire world knows what the wall symbolizes for Donald Trump and his racist supporters and why they want it so bad. No one would shut down the government for a mere 5 billion dollars in border security. The symbolism of the wall is the real objective here, and that is what I don't want to see achieved.
Immigration is not a problem. It rises and falls based on our economy's need for labor. That's all good. Just like with the drug war, making it illegal causes problems. It creates criminals, and generates money for organized crime.

      
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