lol, edge cases, the sign of a flaky argument.

Sure. Fine. Whatever.

Hardly an edge case for most on this forum. Just a scenario where there is a zero supply chain and zero to small buffer to delay the effects.

I notice you didn't answer, so I'll assume yes, and take your apology as implied, no need to feel bad about admitting you're talking nonsense.

Many of my suppliers(software, mainly) have already increased their prices for 2017 based entirely on a weaker £.

That's invisible to someone who never buys goods or services from abroad and only eats frozen food from Iceland.

But how much did you win?

The stakes changed, but the cost only increased for those with a negative expectation. Feels Apt.

The pound fell about 20%. I don't know what you are blathering on about.

Good post.

Yes actually, but that has f*** all to do with anything.

I acknowledge your admission that you hang around outside primary schools with sweets.

More generally we get 20% more "pounds in our pocket" for exports.

Of course some people think "the economy" is just going to shopping centres and setting money on fire on imports. The lower pound is good for rebalancing things.

this is contradictory. if you're getting 25% more pounds for exports then you're not "rebalancing" anything.

anyway, people are right that in the end the economy is about how much you can consume. exporting more, but at lower prices isnt a win. it's just giving away your time/resources etc. cheaper.

Which is why businesses don't bother with pricing strategy I suppose.

So you would be happy if the pound had gone up 20% from it's previous level? What about 50% or 100%? Is there a sweet spot or is it just the higher the better?

im not sure what you're trying say, but i'll try

1. if you're just more generally getting 25% more "pounds in our pocket" for exports then you're not rebalancing anything.

2. if the pound had strengthened on good economic news or more optimistic expectations of the future then that would have been people getting richer.

1. True, but as I'm sure you've realised, businesses have the option to also sell their products in greater volume and cheaper (but still for more pounds) so that's where the rebalancing comes from. That's also why almost all developed countries outside euroland have floating exchange rates.

2. Ok, but with no other changes is it just the higher the better?

Now we are going to be on the "world" side of the European tariff wall the currency has to adjust to match world prices rather than euro ones.

that wouldnt just be 25% more "pounds in our pocket" for exports tho. it would just be making you poorer (having to work harder/do more/sell more to earn what you were earning before).

with no other changes it probably doesnt matter. the devaluations of the past generally didnt do much of anything. people just adjust, so instead of paying £100 for something they would be paying £125 if the £ was worth 20% less.

there are some short term distributional effects and it's different in a recession. it's also a little controversial. some will argue that you can keep exports higher by keeping your currency weaker. but with no unemployment there's no reason to for that. making you cheaper for no reason would just be making you poorer.

the issue here though is that it's happening for a reason. the pound is lower because expectations for the future are lower and everything is thereby less valuable.

there's no european tariff wall. there is the wto which everyone is in. there are free trade agreements, which isnt terribly free, that are pursued most places, and there's the single market, which genuinely is free trade.

the uk will be getting a free trade agreement just like everyone else and will be making free trade agreements with all the same countries as the eu has (with the us maybe being the exception if the uk is willing to accept their terms).

This keeps making me laugh. Cost of bet goes up, ignoring fact that any winning goes up by same coefficient.

So benefit if you have a winning game, lose if you have a losing game.

Absolutely no difference then.

The pound is worth significantly less.

There seems to be an extraordinary level of unintentionally comedic doubletalk about a very simple and obvious fact.

It was your insistence it was 20% RIGHT NOW that started this - that's the unintentional comedy here.

Balance of payments got worse last quarter.

[ ] Rebalance.

So you're saying the Remain campaign's only argument was a lie?

can you find a single remainer calling it a tariff wall?

there's the wto, there are ftas in place or being negotiated with everyone that matters and there's the single market. the main reason the single market is much better is that most barriers today are non-tariff barriers https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Non-ta...riers_to_trade

i think it's even written into some of the eu founding documents that one of the goals is to pursue open trade with the world.

Slightly interesting.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-38587625

Then he goes on to explain his discovery that the future is hard to predict. Although the models are better now, again.

Carney says that it wasn't a forecast fail, they mitigated the downside.

So the forecast assumptions included a presumption that the BoE would act incompetently.

That is a forecast fail, hopefully.

I'm not really criticising their forecasts, which are very difficult to do. The way 'experts' failed here was by pretending their forecasts were accurate and valuable. That wasn't true, and its hard to blame 'non-experts' for having reduced trust as a result of it.

It required a significant amount of economics training to understand the forecasts were almost worthless, but a basic level of being conversant with economic Facebook memes made the forecasts sort of dangerous.

i dont get why this took so long. it was clear from the start



lol anyone that voted for a "liberal brexit"/continued single market membership. daniel hannan should just shoot himself.

We need a general election to determine if this unelected beurocrat should be running the country imo.