We're in agreement. I brought up earlier that that will become an issue in the higher court and that it could bizarrely end up in the European court as only they can decide if article 50 is binding.

Re your aside. I believe it can introduce this but I dont know for sure.

Article that expresses some of my worst fears for the Brexit/Trump world. I was very skeptical that brexit itself could start a domino effect but the USA compounding it makes it a small but significant chance. It may well only take one more to join in to bring the whole lot down.

I'm an optimist at heart so I also hope the EU will take be made stronger as it unites in response. Concern about the USA is the thing that first made me pro EU (seems a long time ago now), I will weep if the EU comes of age and we are standing apart.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-us-2016-37935120

Certainly in France Le Pen's Front National are supposedly looking increasing popular, and are eager to leave the EU.

I'd agree. The next most likely EU catastrophe is France.

from 4 months ago:
france is the worry. everything else (germany included obviously) much less so.

fwiw Le Pen is supposed to move to the second round and then to get crushed by a fairly large margin

that being said the last few months/years have been full of surprises so being worried about it seems sadly reasonable

So in other words nothing has changed since 2002, but let us panique because Trump, Brexit, end of the world etc.

Candidates - Parties - Votes in Round 1 - Votes in Round 2
Jacques Chirac - RPR 5,665,855 19.88% 25,537,956 82.21%
Jean-Marie Le Pen FN 4,804,713 16.86% 5,525,032 17.79%

Plenty has changed since 2002 ffs. If the prospect of quasi-fascists taking over isn't reason to panic, what is?

That Italian referendum. Is soon, right?

He'll lose IMO, but even so it's a sideshow compared to the rest. Just a little more fuel to the fire.

Well if getting killed in the 2nd round of the French presidential election as Kahlgar describes is "taking over" then they took over in 2002.

I think neither of you are wrong, it is worrisome that Le Pen will probably double the % her father got, but, at the same time, a 64-36 type result is not that close.

Things would have to evolve in a major way in the next few months for Le Pen to actually have a legit shot at the presidency.

Again it's subject to the Shy Tory effect. I was discussing politics with my local French restaurateur and hesitatingly he said "I....... have a friend who voted for Le Pen".

There's someone who won't be admitting it to a pollster. Needless to say we don't eat there any more.

I agree and it will be most likely a high variance affair anyway, the way Trump will handle things, Brexit negotiations, possible terrorism issues in France or in Europe and even Russia general behavior will all have some influence on the outcome of this election.

Rather as Trumptards have sprayed a swastika on David Sklansky's front door, Brexitards have threatened Gina Miller and her children, and the police have had to tell her not to go outside.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics...outside-brexit

Don't forget the Democrats rioting and assaulting people and destroying property.

Plus the Remoaners trying to suppress the will of the people.

All very hateful. People need to accept the democratic process, even if it is not the result you want.

I certainly didn't vote for Tony Blair to start wars all over the world but I didn't think smashing up someone's home or business was an appropriate reply like these idiots do.

That would be horribly close and they would use it as a base. France couldn't ignore such a strong extremist block, not now not anymore.

I wonder what they'll do then. We know the EU solution to everything is 'more EU', so how will things go if they aren't willing to compromise their immutable principles of the 4 'freedoms' (free == European free, but the rest of the world can go **** itself) now that more and more people aren't buying into them within Europe?

It's the everpresent 'we know what's best for you, even if you don't' brand of politicking that's opening the door to more extremist parties - and it's obviously getting easier and easier for such parties to start getting meaningful votes.

Time to start listening properly, imo.

The Le Pen vision is somewhat clear. It's a very right wing, very anti-Muslim (and others) fortress France or Europe.

No way to know exactly how it plays out but the 4 principles aren't close to immutable. Also let's not too much store in what we know about the EU from it's more existential history, this is reality thumping on the door now.

Le Pen is more the traditional type of fascist then right wing (at least economically). Belief that capitalism needs changing, ie. state intervention in manufacturing etc.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics...ols-poll-finds

Ok cool now we know what the people want obviously we should compromise as far as possible to get single market access. EU will require freedom of movement but clearly the people understand that.

Oh ... Good job everyone.

All of which is another way of saying that the issues are too complex and intertwined to be voted on by the electorate.

@Richdog: Since you are defend so adamantly the will of the people after a narrow 51:49 win shouldnt you be furious about a Trump win since it looks like Hillary will win the popular vote? Isn't that the will of the people of the USA?

A break up of the EU isn't 100% unlikely anymore. What I dont see is a vision of all these right wing parties in the Netherlands, France, Germany and so on. So what comes after a EU-breakup? You wont rebuild key industries over night. A Siemens manager basically said after Trumps win: "Whatever he does he will still need our machines going forward." Most of the plans you can listen to include messages like "**** climate change, back to fossils."

People would be better adviced to start moving to places where the jobs are and stop caring to much about borders. Right now Germany is looking for skilled personal but if you aren't quick enough these spots will be filled by people from further away who just want to have a better life.

Theoretically you can get rid of immigrants and open up jobs for your own people but do you really expect them to do these jobs? I dont see german people harvest asparagus soon.

Doesn't it just mean stuff like competing priorities is too complex for Guardian journalists? If you asked "would you like to see lower taxes" and "would you like to see more money spent on education" it would also reveal that there are competing priorities. The point of referenda and elections is you force people to make a choice about how to reconcile those priorities. Maybe you also think the business of government is too complex to be voted on by the public.

What the take-away from the referendum and that poll should be is that the public wants partnerships with people who like free trade but doesn't want it to be conditional on participating in a nation-building project. In the poll they're saying the door is still open to that kind of partnership with Europe if Europe wants it. Otherwise it'll only be with other countries. I don't really get that they should lie in answering to either "do you want to control immigration?" or "do you want to access the single market?" if the questions are just asked separately and they are not asked to prioritise.

Personally I wanted Hillary to win, but as regards the US election, if they were to standardise the voting system, early voting, postal voting, absentee ballot, vote validation rules across the US, and they were to run an election on that basis where the "get the vote out" machines of both parties were running in places like California, New York or the Deep South, which were foregone conclusions under the present system, then Hillary would probably, but not definitely, still win the popular vote. That isn't the election that took place however.

i may be wrong but it seems that you're expecting that brexit types will tend to be pro-drumpf,



not the case in my experience

Pretty sure if you could reference their analogue in Yanklandia it would be pro Trump.