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Brexit Referendum Brexit Referendum

01-01-2017 , 04:28 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by davmcg
You still haven't provided the precise groups of UK workers (with numbers) who are being affected. This is important as even if small numbers of workers did face downward pressure, leaving the EU is an absurd overreaction, particularly when policies like the living wage deal with any problem. In addition there is habsfan's point, that some jobs might not even exist at a higher wage.

Re housing the increase is very little to do with "foolish young people" and much more with older BtL landlords looking for somewhere to generate income as interest rates have been low for years.
See post 6146 and there are many contributing factors as to why we should leave the EU, not just this. The fact that nobody in their right mind would join it right now should be a good indicator that it is an organisation we are far better out of.

So again, how do btl investors decide the price of houses? They don't, the market and what people are prepared to pay decides the price. Any stats to quote re: BTL investors and their ages? I seem to remember many years ago Robbie Fowler was one of the, if not the, largest BTL investor in Liverpool and he would have been about 30ish at the time.

Recent govt. changes with regards to the tax advantages of BTL properties is also forecast to lead to many BTL investors selling up, so we should be seeing house prices fall in the next tax year according to your logic?

And successive governments have kept interest rates low due to the massive amount of borrowing in today's society. Interest rates should be higher but the govt knows that if interest rates go back to a normal level (5-10%?) then many families will not be able to meet their repayments.

Short term political gain is trumping long term economic plans at the moment.
01-01-2017 , 05:11 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by richdog
See post 6146, the low skilled and low educated, those on the lowest wages, are the biggest losers from immigration. Doesn't seem fair to me, not sure why you seem to be ok with this.

These jobs will always be required to some degree, although expect more automation in restaurants/bars/supermarkets in the future, so the jobs won't disappear.

People in Spain will be less likely to move to Germany than those in Asia because the Spanish see poor pay whilst the Asians likely see good pay.
That is your fkn answer? The low skilled will always have problems. You haven't named one job yet so that we can argue the point. You are always keeping it vague. And by the way the easiest solution for that matter would be setting a reasonable minimum wage.
01-01-2017 , 08:44 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by jalfrezi

From my own selfish point of view fewer City workers means better journeys to work and less congestion in London while having no effect on my job, but for the future of the UK it's pretty grim.

Turkeys voting for Christmas.
Why do you hate foreigners? That is NOT OK
01-01-2017 , 08:49 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by GBV
Sterling says hi. I don't know what "experts" are saying and I don't much care, I do know the pound in my pocket is worth 25% less.
So dumb! I spent 25 pound on stuff from poundland after the pounds in our pockets became 25% less! It didn't become 1.25 land!!
01-02-2017 , 03:43 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by GBV
Sterling says hi. I don't know what "experts" are saying and I don't much care, I do know the pound in my pocket is worth 25% less.
Funny, a lot of people find their pound is worth 25% more.

http://www.hl.co.uk/funds/fund-disco...y-accumulation
01-02-2017 , 04:47 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Elrazor
Funny, a lot of people find their pound is worth 25% more.

http://www.hl.co.uk/funds/fund-disco...y-accumulation
Another not sure if serious.

Yes, UK citizens who invested their pounds in international index funds (primarily the US) will find those investments have increased in value a similar amount as the £GBP has dropped against the $USD.

01-02-2017 , 05:24 AM
I'm just pointing out that the "since Brexit we are all 25% poorer" argument isn't quite as simple as the remainers think.
01-02-2017 , 06:10 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by _dave_
Another not sure if serious.

Yes, UK citizens who invested their pounds in international index funds (primarily the US) will find those investments have increased in value a similar amount as the £GBP has dropped against the $USD.

So there will be positives and negatives for individuals, but the positives don't count. And there will be net winners and losers, but the winners don't count.

if your analysis is based on memes confirming a niche view of a subset of the economy, while rejecting conflicting evidence, the discussion is not likely to progress in a helpful way.
01-02-2017 , 06:27 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by S.K
Why do you hate foreigners? That is NOT OK
Are you trolling?
01-02-2017 , 06:27 AM
What doesn't count, is basically having spent the pounds on USD before brexit and now using those relatively more valuable dollars to claim the weaker pound is a good thing. Elrazor's link in fact corroborates GBV's post - if you wanted to buy S&P500 and Vanguard index funds today, the pound in your pocket is indeed worth 25% less.

Yes, there are positives and negatives. They all count, but it's overwhelmingly likely the majority of people holding USD are not British, and the majority of Brits are holding primarily GBP. It is a similarly absurd claim as "The financial crisis of 2008 was great for the economy, because some people made millions shorting stocks on the way down."
01-02-2017 , 06:29 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Elrazor
I'm just pointing out that the "since Brexit we are all 25% poorer" argument isn't quite as simple as the remainers think.
This is terrible thinking. It's like saying if you'd converted all your sterling savings to dollars pre-Brexit your pounds are now worth more.
01-02-2017 , 06:34 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by jalfrezi
Are you trolling?
Well you admitted that "selfishly" you enjoy some benefits of less foreign folk such as less congestion on your commute.

Seems as racist and wishy washy as those damn brexiteers claiming low earners wages are suppressed by an over abundance of labour supply.

Are you sure you don't have a Farage picture on your bedstand??
01-02-2017 , 06:40 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by S.K
Well you admitted that "selfishly" you enjoy some benefits of less foreign folk such as less congestion on your commute.

Seems as racist and wishy washy as those damn brexiteers claiming low earners wages are suppressed by an over abundance of labour supply.

Are you sure you don't have a Farage picture on your bedstand??
I think you've seriously misunderstood.

Firstly I was saying that if purely hypothetically I was to vote for only selfish reasons I might have voted Out because I don't work In the commercial sector so would be relatively unaffected by the economic slump when it comes, while the mass exodus of City workers (most of whom are Brits of course) to whichever EU city the banks relocate to would make commuting easier. But there are much bigger considerations that should inform people's opinions about Brexit.

I have no idea where you're getting the stuff about foreigners from.

That was a big "if",, and as my posts here show I was very firmly in the Remain camp.
01-02-2017 , 06:42 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by jalfrezi
I think you've seriously misunderstood.

Firstly I was saying that if purely hypothetically I was to vote for only selfish reasons I might have voted Out because I don't work In the commercial sector so would be relatively unaffected by the economic slump when it comes, while the mass exodus of City workers (most of whom are Brits of course) to whichever EU city the banks relocate to would make commuting easier.

I have no idea where you're getting the stuff about foreigners from.

That was a big "if",, and as my posts here show I was very firmly in the Remain camp.
Ahh ok just a misunderstanding (taps nose, wink wink)
01-02-2017 , 06:58 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by jalfrezi
It's like saying if you'd converted all your sterling savings to dollars pre-Brexit your pounds are now worth more.
Worked pretty well for Farage and his buddies.

But seriously, I'm just pointing out that the argument remainers are presenting that "the pound had dropped 25%, so we all 25% poorer" is not that simple.
01-02-2017 , 09:26 AM
My predictions for the long term effects of the Brexit:

1. Britain will be forced into more open trade agreements to keep their economy afloat.
2. The EU membership will be replaced with a messy bureaucratic soup of an agreement that leaves them slightly worse off.
3. Anti-immigration sentiment will escalate, as the immigration that does happen will be more visible.
4. Scotland will pressure for greater economic independence.
5. Politics will fluctuate more often and between more polarized directions.
6. Forced reduction in military spending will lessen the UK influence on US international politics.
01-02-2017 , 09:30 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Elrazor
Worked pretty well for Farage and his buddies.

But seriously, I'm just pointing out that the argument remainers are presenting that "the pound had dropped 25%, so we all 25% poorer" is not that simple.
Because an entirely trivial amount of people might have invested in off shore equities?

Great argument.
01-02-2017 , 01:22 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by O.A.F.K.1.1
Because an entirely trivial amount of people might have invested in off shore equities?
Yeah, just the trivial amount who invest in a pension.
01-02-2017 , 02:06 PM
I'm sure that's of great consolation to the millions of young people who voted Remain.
01-02-2017 , 03:04 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Elrazor
Yeah, just the trivial amount who invest in a pension.
How much money do you think highly subscribed UK pension funds have in non pound denominated investments?
01-02-2017 , 03:49 PM
The USS, which is the largest pension scheme in the UK, has £13bn invested in foreign equities, compared to £6bn in UK equities.
01-02-2017 , 04:28 PM
One of the largest occupational pensions schemes. BTs is very similar in size.

Legal and General manage pension investments totalling ~516Bn

Which is a bit more than 19Bn, and that is just one financial services company.

Quote:
The pension fund assets of the top 20 investment houses operating in the UK market rose 12 per cent to £1.6tn last year,
https://www.ft.com/content/f3d756de-...9-b89a1dfede9b

Last edited by O.A.F.K.1.1; 01-02-2017 at 04:41 PM.
01-02-2017 , 07:24 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by O.A.F.K.1.1

Legal and General manage pension investments totalling ~516Bn
Yeah i invest in the Legal & General International Index Trust - up 30% since Brexit. :thumbsup:
01-03-2017 , 05:59 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by O.A.F.K.1.1
How much money do you think highly subscribed UK pension funds have in non pound denominated investments?
Where do you think the FTSE100 generates its cash?
01-03-2017 , 10:40 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Alexdb
Where do you think the FTSE100 generates its cash?
This

- if you look at a multinational shares that are listed in NY and London you will see that the London price has increased more/decreased less than the US price. Multinationals are listed in London because of share liquidity not because their business is British.

      
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