I'm pretty sure I could stay in power in Gadaffi's shoes. I'd give a few minor concessions to placate some significant portion of the protestors, pay the army more and not kill anyone. I'd be fine.

Yes true but they all seem to go about it by pissing everyone off as much as possible.

Sky News reporting that 2 Libyan Air Force jets have landed in Malta and the pilots are requesting asylum. Also reporting simultaneously that the Libyan Air Force are attacking protesters from the air in Tripoli.

Sky's security editor (Sam Killey) is discussing the recent reports of foreign African mercenaries used by Gadaffi to attack protesters. He says that this could be true - southern Libya has for decades been famous for its terrorist training camps where the likes of the IRA, PLO and some of Africa's worst groups have been trained: the RUF in Sierra Leone, Charles Taylor in Liberia, death squads in Guinea, Burkina Faso, etc... Many of these African groups were trained to and routinely use rape as a weapon, forcibly recruit children, medieval torture, etc... Mercenaries/terrorists may be at these camps in southern libya now and could have been used. If these groups were in southern libya, they are literally cut off from the world, with the Sahara at their backs.

But, interestingly, he also says that it could be the darker skinned, "african looking" tribes from southern Libya who may have been used.

Crazy stuff...

Edit: Pilots stuff posted by Obsidian above...

BBC article about the situation in Morocco

Rumors that Ghaddafi is en route to Venezuela.

Venezuela denies that, apparently, but who knows.

STRATFOR red alert update..

Libyan leader Moammar Gadhafi has ordered the Libyan air force to fire on military installations in Libya, according to what the BBC has characterized as a reliable source. Al Jazeera has suggested that air force fighters have opened fire on crowds of protesters.


Though the latter would be particularly draconian, the more important question is whether these signs reflect a split within the regime and Gadhafi using military force to crush opposition to his regime emerging from the military or other security forces. Similar reports of the Libyan navy firing on targets onshore also are emerging, as well as reports that Gadhafi has given execution orders to soldiers who have refused to fire on Libyan protesters.

The application of conventional weaponry is noteworthy and will warrant scrutiny — particularly in terms of the targets of the attacks and the rationale behind them. The use of these weapons is more appropriate for other armed entities rather than unarmed protesters. Libyan troops are good at instilling fear, but not good at stabilizing a situation, so the military may not be able to get in on the ground due to lost capability.

The situation remains opaque, but these latest developments combined with recent reports of defections of military units to the demonstrators’ side continue to draw STRATFOR’s attention to the possibility that the regime is fracturing.

Sky saying that the biggest tribe in Libya (the Warfallah) has now publicly denounced Gadaffi. No idea how significant that is but its probably pretty important.

Edit: Just heard that the army will contain many people who's tribes have withdrawn support for Gadaffi and these would probably listen to their tribal leaders first and foremost (if they even have a choice). The Warfallah, as the biggest tribe, is not allowed to serve in the Air Force - too big a threat.

wtf, the italian airforce is on full alert in most bases in southern italy, especially the big bases in Trapani and Goia del Colle. The chief of staff of the airforce said "it's a normal protocoll to secure the italian airspace ".

This is a pretty naive post. I don't think you could have enough information to know what Gadaffi's best options are. I do think that anyone who has been in power for 40 years is smart and is making what they believe is the best decision for themselves even if it turns out not to be right later. My one caveat for this is that he could be senile and his handlers don't have enough power to overrule some dumb decisions.

This is getting absurd, I can't believe they are executing soldiers for refusing to fire on unarmed protesters.

I wonder how long until someone attempts to assassinate Gadhafi, doing stuff like he is can make even your supporters turn on you.

Yeah, I still think Gaddafi misplayed his hand here, despite replies ITT that he "has nothing to lose" by instantly launching a violent crackdown against what initially were characterized as "peaceful protests" here and there. I understand the hypothesis that the Tunisian and Egyptian precedents had him concerned, so he resorted to nakedly brutal suppression right away as a contrasting strategy -- but I think events strongly indicate that the EV of such a move is worse than what the dictators in Tunis and Egypt tried, and a bit of reflection beforehand should have suggested the same truth.

Not that I'm urgently concerned with refining the dictator's playbook on how to crush the populace and preserve control.

It just seems obvious to my cynical side that it's a better strategy to avoid inflaming a wave of popular dissent inspired by revolutions abroad, and offer a ton of concessions instead, up to and including retreating from an official position of leadership while continuing to exert influence and pull strings from behind the scenes. It makes you a harder target for impassioned resistance, mass hatred, and general protesting when you appear to sort of fade away while still effectively retaining much of your assets and power.

I say all of the above while granting that maxtower is essentially correct, Gaddafi knows a ton of things I don't informing his strategy, and has a track record suggesting he would kick my ass at the game of "Who Wants To Be A Dictator?" -- but I still can't resist amateur, armchair speculation from my vantage point, and that's what this forum's all about, goddammit.

This is also pretty naive... no offense.

I heard they handcuffed them and set them on fire. This sort of brutality is part of what keeps the lower ranks totally subservient. In Saddams army, for example, if a soldier was deemed to have shown severe cowardice or disgraced the unit in some way, he would have his arms broken by his best friend in the unit, in front of the unit. Utterly barbaric, but its the method these dictators use to be able to rule as they do.

Whilst an assassination or lynching could certainly happen at some point, "doing stuff like he is" is a big part of how he managed to get those people to "support" him in the first place. They will switch sides at whatever point they feel like they need to to save their lives, if at all.

Looks like both sides are prepared to spill as much blood as needed...

My point was that if people in the military are willing to martyr themselves, then I suspect people closer to him might be getting to that point as well.

Romania's dictator (can't spell name) decided to go out the hard way, which didn't work out well.
Lots of blood in the streets, including eventually his.

That's my cue lol.
I must post it again, Romania's Ceausesku and his wife execution cought on video.

http://www.toxicjunction.com/get.asp?i=V3860

Ceausescu



Didn't know when the quit...

Foreign Policy explains: Can You Get Away With Any Crime if You Have Diplomatic Immunity?

fixed

morbid vid. I do enjoy the youtube vid of his last speech. Especially when he tells his wife to STFU

Looks like Lara Logan, was stripped, pinched really hard, and hit with fists and flag poles. does not say how far the stripping went. Apparently state media had been telling people foreign journalists were Israeli spies.

http://www.nydailynews.com/news/worl...ll_in_cai.html

Assuming this is the bulk of what happened, it sucks, but it's not rape. And I'm not sure it's the first thing that would come to mind when you hear "brutal and sustained sexual assault". Sexual being the key word there that people are going to take and run with in their minds.

I saw something similar on Dutch TV a day after the worst night in Egypt, when protesters were fighting Mubarak thugs.
Dutch reporter was walking around Mubarak suporters and there was some comotion near by.
They zoomed in and it looked like 5-6 thugs were harrasing a woman, yelling, pushing her etc.
Later they interviewed her, she was egyptian and was talking in english.
She said thugs first thought that she was a foreign reporter so they attacked her, then saw she's egyptian... and slapped her around a lil bit anyway.

My apologies - misunderstood your post.

Someone close to him either taking power, killing him or allowing him to be killed is definitely a possibility.

Right. But at their core, they're all still about unprecedented municipal budget cuts due to the fact that credit has burst, subsidies have to be shifted, and fuel and food prices are fast outpacing normal inflation.

Or do you just believe all this sudden unrest in each of these countries is coincidental and each have their own individual causes that go no deeper?

Jesus ****ing Christ,
Mubarak looks like a pusycat compared to this Gaddafi psycho.
I'm watchng AJ and I can't believe what I'm seeing and hearing.
And I've been through an ugly civil war myself, I've seen a lot of crap in my life but this is unbelievable what's happening there.

What are the chances the US military gets involved in any of these conflict/protest/revolutions?